GeoPol (MilDef)

Geo politics & global conflict commentary.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

The air campaign during the first gulf war was 43 days.

Over that time allied air forces shifted from air supremacy to ground attack and scud hunting.

Expect a similar structure. Yes initial attacks were decapitative - seeking to eliminate regime leadership but will rapidly shift to counter air defense and counter long range fires.

Once air supremacy is established US and Israeli air forces will effectively be able to operate as close air support for anti-regime elements on the ground.

The only question that exists is the depth of the US air defense magazine and the ability to keep the Straight of Hormuz open & gulf energy facilities open.

IRGC long range fires into neighboring Gulf countries seem to be leverage seeking via perceptional financial damage, a cleavage of Sunni/Shia divide, or simple vengeance - lashing out at perceived allies of the US and Israel.

[Caitlin Huey-Burns @CHueyBurns]

“Weeks not days,” is how long this operation will go on, Intel Chair Tom Cotton tells @CBSNews Major Garrett during our special report just now.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@ericschmidt you might wanna check this guy out - or buy him a plane ticket to Kiev.

[Tomas Salvo @tomas_salvo22]

Since February, I've designed and built the world's fastest RC airplane in my college dorm, and that’s not clickbait. Reaper has a 5kg carbon-fiber frame, 250N turbojet, and flies at 500mph. New to X and will be going through the whole build here in the coming days.

#aerospace

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@Noahpinion Doable with Japan and Korea in the mix.

Also a bit overstated to say Europe is doing this - it’s Ukraine and its affiliated supplier/vendor/OEM network that are doing this.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@NJSciretta @jimfornyc @LevineJonathan Almost no country on earth would be a viable candidate for investment.

Reality is an ugly thing.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

Would be a bold move for RU forces to deploy to Kharg in an attempt to deter US destruction/capture.

They’ve done it before - as @M_A_Piotrowski rightly points out (very astute observation 👏).

Would assume in the off chance there would be some intel - which would force a reassessment of US plan and potentially accelerate timelines to maintain the initiative.

Really interesting thought.

[Marcin A. Piotrowski @M_A_Piotrowski]

@shashj However, Zbig was against it due to the risk of IRI-USSR alliance and escalation. ...It is extremely low-probability/high-impact scenario now but I hope US DoD remember about Russia's Pristina raid (200 VDV troops) in 1999 and Syria intervention in 2015.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@RetirementRight Not even on the menu.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

Talking about objectives and outcomes

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

Smart move by the Captain.

India continues is 3rd way.

[Sidhant Sibal @sidhant]

BIG BREAKING: India provides refuge to the 3rd Iran Warship IRIS Lavan in Kochi.

IRIS Lavan requested for refuge on 28th Feb, & was given approval on 1st March & has been docked in the port since 4th March.

Crew of 183 have been accommodated at naval facilities.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@MarioNawfal Why would you choose to contextualize this as a strategic decision? That the IRGC is “conserving what is left” - seems very selective in its presentation.

Do you have information that is not public knowledge?

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

Saw this earlier - the crypto part is pretty far out on the limb - I think there is a lot going on any some of these pieces are accurate but also missing a lot of nuance. The BRICS thing for sure is part of it but mainly via dollar dominance via dollar delineated oil (Venezuela & Iran), it was also about suppressing the the dark fleets which are effectively a combined resource of Russia, Venezuela, Iran, China. It's about the consolidation of forces towards the pacific, its about Cuba (US only interest), its about the cartels... its about undermining gray money flows.

There are a lot of potential angles.

But yes - a HUGE gamble.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

Expect a shift towards unconventional methods and asymmetric tactics in the coming days if Iran is going to continue counter strikes.

[Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ @mercoglianos]

@trbrtc @Kpler @pickeringenergy But why are they not willing to go through?

They have insurance until March 5.

It is the shipping companies, which are in the P&I Clubs, not sending the ships through until they get updated rates and contracts.

[Max Villman @MaxVillman]

I was a fighter pilot in the Swedish Air Force, this is my take on the operation against Iran.

As predicted: zero opposition to Israeli and US air power now 24h into the operation.

This means that the US and Israel air assets - fighter jets and ofc reaper drones etc - can operate at high altitudes without fear of getting engaged by ground based air defences or Iranian fighters for that matter.

Using long times on station, fuel tanks and targeting pods - large parts of Iran are now a turkey shoot for the coalition.

Everything that moves and is hostile can be engaged.

Iran is a big country. So ofc some parts will not have monitoring 24/7.

The IRGC will hide in cities using the reluctance of the coalition to risk civilian casualties.

So everything now is on tjejband of the Iranian population. Do they want freedom?

The opportunity is now.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@D12082024 In a week to two weeks the IRGC air defense and long range fires will be degraded to the point that Israeli and US air power will be able to provide and shift a close air support role. That is the moment of transition.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@D12082024 @D12082024 The main damage the IRGC can do is to damage magazine depth. With China’s window for Taiwan opening in 2027 usage of our primary air defense systems that we do not have the capability to replace in that window.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@mrjeffu The entire Indian HSR system is literally a Japanese product - Japanese tech and hardware financed by Japan.

Will link India to Japan for decades to come for equipment and services.

…pretty explainable. Shame if anyone in 🇯🇵 is falling for that.

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@Stasi_GDR @Noahpinion Insults it is.

Enjoy the simple life.

😵‍💫

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

Noah asked about interstate war frequency in Europe vs Southeast Asia.

I suggested dense populations + synchronized annual winter scarcity create structural inter-polity competition when stored surplus is threatened.

You offered Tigers.

If you think the causal chain is wrong, identify where it breaks - or stick with insults. 🤷

[GeoPol (MilDef) @GeoPolMilDef]

@mrjeffu What are they chanting?