8bit Modeling

Wore N95s before they were cool - Small tech company owner - Programmer - Amateur fintwit - Sys Modeling

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

I know no one cares.. but a pinned tweet.

This account is my gut level extreme thought repo. I throw out thoughts and use them as a timestamped check on myself. Sometimes dry humor, sometimes anger, I use public accountable prediction as a brake. It is humbling and effective.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@KevinMcH3 @BillyBostickson Agreed. My thoughts from earlier today.

https://t.co/ocoDZItg4V

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

No proof here yet and I know there are plenty of studies indicating different results.

I'm still HODLing my belief that little humans are an important part of covid outbreaks.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@SyncPol @curiouswavefn I'm rooting for inverse correlation, since it would mean I approach near genius level IQ.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@AndreasShrugged Also, chart does not appear to be normalized for the biggest deaths per million predictor.... the age breakdown of population.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

This is why I've been in favor of the eviction moratoriums.

The consequences are scaring more and more, however, as variants mean moratoriums will extend into indefinite future. We currently have a uni directional housing "market".

[NBER @nberpubs]

Policies that limit evictions and put moratoria on utility disconnections significantly reduce infections and deaths from COVID-19, from Kay Jowers, Christopher Timmins, Nrupen Bhavsar, Qihui Hu, and Julia Marshall https://t.co/pr1xEJnOD7

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

This line of thinking is dangerous as States remain incentivized to whine and do little experimentally because they can direct their populace's anger at the Feds. I don't see how institutionalizing centralized dependency is a good thing for a country as big as US.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

Thought on cancel culture stickiness: Large population and trivial, zero friction idea spread => Always someone else to provide middling commentary or services.

Means no cost at all to cancel an employee, talking head, etc.

[TakingHayekSeriously @FriedrichHayek]

John Kerry, environmentalist

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@sharib1959 @ModoWriter @TheBeaverton Don't prisoners get jabbed high in the queue?

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@yaneerbaryam Washington state, Seattle area - Moves to Phase 2 tomorrow despite cases in a plateau at higher level than any peak of first two waves, with variants in the wild.

🤦🤦

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@benmagelsen @zerohedge Strikes me as hyperbolic, but my opinion on macro has negative expected value. I'm in the valley of despair.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@balajis 100%! I'm impressed at how much @balajis got correct. I did okay on the virus, reasonably on the US response, and poorly on the economics.

https://t.co/1VEAaqZx41

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

I've been shocked at how many people have been saying the words "don't panic". When should we "panic" and attack aggressively if not as early as possible? To do otherwise makes it all moot, and depends only on good fortune.

[Robert Nelsen @rtnarch]

In the midst of a pandemic and rampant educational issues and massive systemic failures in San Francisco, the idiocy is unparalleled. https://t.co/Nf5GopJeaE.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@FT__Dan @ATabarrok I'm happier about J&J's easier storage than one shot, but also agree with your point.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

@LucioMM1 @ATabarrok @FT__Dan Like this one? https://t.co/AjVyZc7i8K

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

Not sure how this will impact my personal plan. I'll postpone normal living until jab cycle #1. However, if virus outruns the vaccines I'll likely switch to a risk-on mode. At that point best to maximize remaining years because, in aggregate, they will be reduced for all of us.

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

If you want to spend a little pessimistic covid time this weekend, here ya go!

https://t.co/AjVyZc7i8K

[8bit Modeling @GephenS]

If my prediction above takes place, also means we are re-opening schools without a clear path to youthful vaccination.

I'm still staggered by the acceptance of this natural experiment on children.... because schools. Whatever. Do what you want with your own kids.