Gr.Gnaz

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

I do not understand, in 2026, why anyone is shorting anything, and I have, over the last several years, watched a generation of intelligent, well-credentialed, technically sophisticated investors set fire to their capital on the short side of a market that has been telegraphing its direction with the subtlety of a marching band, and the only explanation I have ever been able to construct is that none of these people have read a single page of monetary history written before 1990.

The setup is not subtle. The federal government is running a 7% structural deficit with no political coalition in either party willing to address it. The Treasury is issuing debt at a pace that will push publicly held debt-to-GDP past 130% within five years, which is the level at which, historically, every government in recorded history has either inflated its way out, defaulted, or both. The Fed is, regardless of what it says in public, the marginal buyer of that debt, and the only mechanism it has to fund the purchases is the creation of new dollars. The money is being printed. The debt is being monetized. The currency is being debased. And asset prices, which are denominated in the currency being debased, are doing the only thing they have ever done in any country that has ever tried this, which is going up.

Every country that has run this experiment has produced the same chart. Weimar Germany in 1922 and 1923 produced one of the most violent equity bull markets in recorded history in nominal terms, as the mark collapsed and the Berlin exchange repriced upward by orders of magnitude. Argentina, across four separate inflationary cycles since 1975, produced in each cycle a nominal rally that outran every short thesis published, while the peso lost 99.9% of its purchasing power. Zimbabwe in 2007 and 2008 produced an equity market that rose so violently the exchange had to be closed because the calculations could not keep up. Turkey, right now, in front of the entire world, has produced a Borsa Istanbul up 1,400% in lira terms while the lira has lost 85% against the dollar, and every short of Turkish equities has been carried out in nominal terms even when they were right in real terms.

The lesson is not that asset prices are going up because the businesses are getting better. The lesson is that asset prices are going up because the unit they are measured in is getting smaller, and any investor who positions short against this dynamic is betting against the will and capacity of a government to debase its own currency, which is the single most reliable bet you can lose in 4,000 years of recorded monetary history. The government always wins. The government always debases. The currency always loses purchasing power. The assets always reprice upward in nominal terms, on a path the shorts always insist is unsustainable and that always, somehow, sustains.

You can short individual frauds. You cannot short the market. You cannot short the currency itself without being on the wrong side of the largest force in modern capital markets, which is the slow, politically inevitable destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power against everything that cannot be printed. The shorts have been wrong for five years. They will be wrong for the next five. The only investors who will, in real terms, preserve and grow their wealth are the ones who understood, early, that the game is not about being right on valuation, it is about being on the right side of monetary debasement, and the right side has always been owning real assets, productive businesses, scarce commodities, and the one monetary metal that has functioned as money continuously for 5,000 years, while the people on the other side continue to insist this time is different. This time has never been different. The math is the math. The shorts will continue to lose. The owners will continue to win.

[greg @greg16676935420]

If you’re working on your taxes this week don’t forget to report your income from illegal activities and stolen property

[bone @boneGPT]

you cannot imagine how rigged your reality will become when prediction markets reach real liquidity

the less likely something is to happen the greater incentive there is to make it happen, until every expectation is adequately hedged

powerful traders will cause crises to cash in on hedges

information laundering will become a business model as big positions manufacture their own narratives

markets become wildly unstable, expectation manipulation causes real events, causing more trades and more manipulation in a feedback loop

the market's interest becomes chaos

it's all fugazi

the cypherpunks laid this all out in the 80s and 90s

[Engineering Explained @Engineering67]

Do you know these mechanics?

[Physics In History @PhysInHistory]

When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.

- Max Planck (1858 - 1947)

[STRIKE @Strike]

Bitcoin can change the world because the world can’t change Bitcoin.

[Marina Purkiss @MarinaPurkiss]

Morning everyone!

How’s everyone doing with their work-genocide balance?

This morning I saw a kid dead next to his bike

I also heard from a doctor pleading as to why baby formula entering Gaza is a threat to the safety of Israelis

…now I’m off to try and have a normal day.

[rdeolm @rdeolm1]

@Scientific_Bird Here's a graph I had done. Number of items in the Louvre by year of creation. Very visible Dark Ages

[americascup @americascup]

The moment lightning struck during Race 17 of the Louis Vuitton Cup Round Robin in Barcelona.

#AC37 #LVCup #Day5

[americascup @americascup]

T-5 Days. Are you ready @lunarossa?

[NO CONTEXT HUMANS @HumansNoContext]

this made my day

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

The Geneva drive is a gear mechanism that translates a continuous rotation into a discrete motion.

[Brick Bending @brickbending]

The geometric fundamentals of LEGO brick bending

[Physics In History @PhysInHistory]

The Gaussian integral ✍️

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

This is why we #Bitcoin

[Callisto Roll @callistoroll]

Donald Trump visiting Japan in 1990 is the greatest thing you’ll read all day.

[David Senra @FoundersPodcast]

My notes from Larry Gagosian (Billionaire Art Dealer) turned into maxims:

1. The best way to raise the price of something is to say that you would never sell it.

2. The competitive drive of self-made billionaires does not go into remission once they've made a fortune.

3. You can be so successful selling to the masters of the universe that you *become* one.

4. Art is just money on walls.

5. Genius is easy to understand.

6. Genius has the fewest moving parts.

7. Genius lies in ignoring the unimportant.

8. No shareholders. No one to answer to. Retention of complete control.

9. You can sell things that aren’t for sale.

10. Read biographies. There’s always a blueprint. Gagosian read every biography of Joseph Duveen. Duveen was the art dealer to the Robber Barons. Gagosian is that today.

11. Self-reflection is how you lose your edge. A shark keeps swimming.

12. Disinhibition can be a superpower.

13. A cold call can change your life because relationships run everything.

14. Don’t forget that relationships run everything.

15. Bluntness is appealing to busy people.

16. What is the establishment of an existing industry ignoring? The answer is an opportunity hiding in plain sight.

17. Expanding a market is the first step to owning it.

18. Find information asymmetries. Don’t tell other people about them. Not even your lover.

19. Earned secrets produce treasure maps.

20. Be default aggressive and never forget that everything is for sale.

21. A sharp eye for who matters is the skill of an industrialist.

22. Industrialists build large financial empires.

23. You can build a billion dollar business without formal meetings, protocol, bureaucracy, and hierarchy.

24. Sales solves everything.

25. Make 100 calls a day.

26. If you love what you do the only exit strategy is death.

27. Hire a scholar. More companies should hire the Samwell Tarly of their industry.

28. Don’t allow other people to burnish their ethics on your hide.

29. Go to where your customers are. Gagosian opened a gallery at a private jet airport.

30. Be as liquid as the day is long. You can buy things at a heavy discount in recessions.

31. Money flows fast when the customer believes the opportunity is fleeting.

32. Pricing is guesswork.

33. There is always somebody somewhere making a lot of money. Find them. Sell to them.

34. Five hundred years ago people were complaining money ruined art. They say the same thing today.

Episode 325 Larry Gagosian (Billionaire Art Dealer) is available in every podcast app now!

[raphael @ relai.app @raphschoen]

"Bitcoin is stupid fantasy money. It's made up, and not backed by anything".

Meanwhile, the expert solutions in the largest economy in the world: