Golden Rainbow

The truth does not belong to me, as there is one but yet many. The map is not the territory. YNWA. 嘘ついて悪かった

[Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi]

Because of the psychopath in the White House, the Strait of Hormuz will now be completely closed.

[RussiaNews 🇷🇺 @mog_russEN]

The Russian flag was spotted at a stadium in Mexico City, where the opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place today.

From this day until July 19, matches will be held in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. For the first time in history, the tournament will be hosted across three countries at once. The matches will be held in 11 U.S. cities, three Mexican cities, and two Canadian cities.

This year’s World Cup will be the largest in history in terms of participation, with 48 teams taking part.

[Abraham Mendieta @abrahamendieta]

Coby es uno de los integrantes más destacados del grupo ultrasionista Shabad (Jabad).

No entiendo por qué dijo ser costarricense cuando lo entrevistaron. Quizá no le gusta decir que es israelí.

[Greta Thunberg Respecter 40K 🇸🇪🇵🇸🚀🇰🇵 @JucheAffirmer]

This is genuinely such a disaster. I just don't get how this is what we're doing: manipulating oil futures to create an illusion of calm until oil stocks literally run out and we get the global economic version of losing consciousness from blood loss.

[Jenni @hashjenni]

Fun fact. For the 1966 World Cup, England debated denying visas for North Korea. FIFA responded that if any players from any teams were denied visas,they would relocate the World Cup, even at the last minute.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 This is the chart that keeps me awake at night.

It's the year-over-year change in US margin debt. How fast investors are borrowing money to buy stocks. Sixty-seven years of history.

The current reading is 53.3%.

In 67 years, that level has been exceeded only six times. Here they are:

– 1972, Nifty Fifty: 60.7% → bear market
– 1976: 53.4% → bear market
– 1983 bull: 80.7% → the one exception
– 2000, Dot-com: 80.5% → bear market
– 2007, Pre-GFC: 62.7% → bear market
– 2021, Reopening: 71.6% → bear market

Five of the six were followed by a bear market. Only 1983 wasn't.

Read that again. When investors borrow this aggressively to buy stocks, the market has fallen apart five out of six times in nearly seven decades.

This isn't a vibe. It isn't sentiment. It's leverage. Real money, borrowed against real portfolios, that has to be paid back regardless of what the market does next.

Here's why leverage is the part that matters most.

On the way up, borrowed money feels like genius. It amplifies every gain. It makes the bulls look like prophets.

On the way down, it reverses. A normal 10% dip triggers margin calls. Forced selling begets more forced selling. The leverage that built the top accelerates the fall.

That's how a correction becomes a crash. Not because the news got worse, but because the borrowed money all gets called back at once.

We're at 53.3% and climbing toward the 55% line that has marked the edge of euphoria for two generations.

History says this ends one of two ways.

It's 1983.

Or it's the other five.

#IBDPartner

[Middle Eastern Affairs @OpsHQs]

🇲🇽 Mexico: Burning of the Israeli flag in Guadalajara

Israel is hated everywhere

[Sabby Sabs @SabbySabs2]

Jerry Seinfeld volunteered with the IDF. He made fun of babies dying in Gaza. He’s a horrible person.

[The Macro Pulse @TheMacroPulse]

Everyone loves the long-term S&P 500 chart.

Fewer people show the path.

Since 2000:

Dot-com bust: -49%
Financial crisis: -57%
COVID crash: -34%
2022 selloff: -25%
Long-run returns are real.

So are the drawdowns required to earn them.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

While I was analyzing Nvidia’s monthly chart, it triggered a flashback to the dot-com era, when Microsoft led the herd to its demise and acted as the main catalyst for the crash.

Fast-forward to today, and we see the new cattle herder has led the herd in much the same way. It now looks likely to lead the major unwind lower.

For one's private perusal.

Enjoy.

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

My First purchase of SpaceX will be in 10 months.

All IPOs trade in a similar trend.
Shocking stats:

- Most IPOs drop 50% after going live. Look at $CAVA $RDDT $ALAB $CRWV $CART $CBRS
- Some drop further to 70-80%, look at $HOOD $PLTR
- And some never recover: $MBLY $CRCL $KLAR

[ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ @DeFiTracer]

SpaceX valuation: $1.8 TRILLION
Walmart valuation: $920 BILLION

SpaceX revenue: $18 BILLION
Walmart revenue: $713 BILLION

[BladeoftheSun @BladeoftheS]

Infantino claims he can't do anything about Referees, players, journalists and fans being banned from the World Cup because in every country there are Governments.

In 2023 Indonesia refused to let the Israeli U23 squad have visas

FIFA instantly moved the tournament to Argentina

[Mick Wallace @wallacemick]

A rotten @FIFAcom serves the interests of Western Imperialism, not Football. FIFA is doing untold damage to the world game...

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

🚨 THE STOCK MARKET AS YOU KNEW IT JUST ENDED

In 24h SpaceX lists at $1.77 trillion.

Fidelity just cut its SpaceX minimum from $500k to $2k. A 99.6% cut.

Robinhood, SoFi, others: no min.

I've been in markets for a decade. This has never happened before.

So I've spent 10h studying all past IPOs - here's what happens next:

First, understand why this is happening.

For decades Wall Street locked retail out of every major IPO. This week it threw the doors open.

A normal IPO hands retail 5 to 10% of the shares. SpaceX reserved 30%. Triple the standard.

That is not generosity. Someone has to be the buyer.

And here is the part buried in the fine print:

They will let you BUY at $135. They will not let you SELL.

Sell your SpaceX shares in the first 15 days on Fidelity and you are flagged a flipper. Six-month ban. Then a year. Then permanent, tied to your Social Security number. Robinhood locks you for 30.

They drop every barrier to get you IN, then bolt the exit shut behind you.

You do not build a one-way door unless you already know which way the crowd has to run.

Here is what they know that you don't.

An IPO is not the start of the run. It is the exit. The day insiders, employees and early backers turn paper into cash. Someone sits on the other side of that trade. This week they are building that someone out of millions of $2,000 accounts.

History shows you the ending every time.

Truist studied 30 major tech IPOs over 15 years. Every one had a serious drawdown in year one. Median: -54%. Only 43% were green after twelve months.

The names you remember:

Facebook: -54%
Snap: -56%
Uber: -68%
Pinterest: -70%
Robinhood: -90%

Same script. Huge debut. Endless hype. Lockups expire. The early money hands you the bag at the top.

Now price SpaceX into that history.

$1.77 trillion. 94.7x sales. A $4.9 billion loss last year. The doors flung open to the smallest accounts in the market, the exit locked for 15 days.

That is not access. That is distribution at the top.

We have watched this movie before:

2000 dotcom. Insiders rich, retail wrecked.
2021 SPAC mania. Insiders rich, retail wrecked.

Nobody hands you the front of the line for free.

So you have 2 choices in the next 24 hours.

Buy the most expensive listing in market history at the open and pray you are the exception to a 54% median.

Or to make money on it... But almost nobody knows what is the best way.

I have been calling these traps in public for years, while everyone else cheered the ticker.

Btw I am taking this profile private soon, as it's already too big. After that, all info goes to the people already inside.

So better to follow now, when you can...

A lot of people are going to wish they did before June 12.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

This chart should concern every investor right now.

US CPI printed 4.2% for May. Third consecutive month of acceleration.

March: 3.3%
April: 3.8%
May: 4.2%

The 1970s saw the same pattern. Inflation peaked in 1974, cooled down, and everyone assumed the worst was over. Then a second wave started building in 1978. By 1980 inflation had reached 14.8%.

The Fed had to raise rates to 20% to stop it. The trigger was the same, a Middle East conflict that kept oil elevated for an extended period.

That second wave in 1979 started exactly the way inflation is behaving today. Energy-driven, gradual at first, and widely dismissed as temporary.

Energy drove over 60% of the May CPI increase. Gasoline is up 40.5% year over year. The Iran conflict has kept oil above $90 per barrel with no resolution in sight.

Core CPI rose just 0.2% month over month. The broader economy has not caught fire yet.

But in the 1970s, core inflation followed energy with a lag of several months. Once it caught up, the second wave became impossible to stop without extreme monetary tightening.

The Fed is now in the same position it was in 1978. Rate hike odds for 2026 are nearly 47%. Rate cut expectations are at zero.

Six months ago markets were pricing multiple cuts this year. That is completely gone now.

Nobody is calling for 14.8% inflation. But the last time these conditions lined up this precisely, it took two years and 20% interest rates to fix it.

If this wave fades, great. If it does not, the implications for every risk asset are significant.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: May PPI Inflation surges to 6.5%, above expectations of 6.4% and the highest level since November 2022.

Core PPI Inflation came in at 4.9%, in-line with April's revised levels.

PPI inflation is now at pandemic stimulus levels.

Odds of rate HIKES continue to rise.

[Brian McDonald @BrianMcDonaldIE]

When Russia hosted the World Cup in 2018, it had to suspend normal visa rules for the tournament. Foreigners with tickets could enter visa-free, using a scheme called ‘Fan ID.’

Russia also had to do weird stuff to keep FIFA’s sponsors happy. For example, small shops near Fan Zones and stadiums could only sell Budweiser beer on match days.

So yes, FIFA absolutely does dictate conditions to host governments when it suits FIFA. Infantino pretending otherwise is nonsense.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The world's largest oil tankers are being ordered at a record pace:

There are currently 262 supertankers on order at shipyards worldwide, the highest number on record.

This marks an over +1,000% surge from the levels seen just 2 years ago.

Each of these vessels can carry up to 2 million barrels of crude oil.

This also exceeds the previous record of ~255 supertankers set in October 2008, which ultimately flooded the market with too many ships, causing the daily rates shipowners charge to crash and tanker company revenues to collapse.

Shipowners are rushing to capitalize on historic supply chain disruptions.