I have never seen Warren do a DCF. We never sit down, run the numbers out and then discount them back to net present value. The decision should be obvious. What we seek is certainty and simplicity. No point calculating the value of what is not predictable.
-- Charlie Munger
You will wake up today and read articles about how "investors" thought *this*, or were cheered by *that.*
It's all bull$hit. There are no "investors," only computers feasting on hot money flows poured in by someone somewhere. The tell? Complete synchronized coordination.
When a 20 year veteran trader, and one of the most successful traders out there, says;
"I still making the same f-cking stupid mistakes I did when I started."
You realise, ‘it’s not just you, this remains forever, a hugely challenging job’.
Trading is not about making money, nor being right. It's about knowing why you made money , and why you were right and repeating the process. #TheStrat
The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion of 10-yr and 3-mo Treasury yields. That inversion occurred today for the first time since 2020 with the 3-Month Treasury bill (4.04%) ending the day with a yield 3 bps higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond (4.01%).
Just a quick calendar reminder:
November 2- Fed Decision
November 4- Jobs Report
November 8- Midterms
November 10- CPI Data
December 2- Jobs Report
December 13- CPI Data
December 14- Fed Decision
THREAD: The US government's new export controls are wreaking havoc on China's chip industry.
New rules around "US persons" are driving an "industry-wide decapitation."
Exclusive: Musk's SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical Starlink satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab https://t.co/RgX7ykI852
While my gut says we are getting close to a bottom, experience tells me to stick to the rules and let the weight of evidence guide my trading. A low happens on one day, the bull market last for years. The big money is made spotting trends not bottoms. The current trend is down.