Brian Goldsmith

Democratic candidate, CA Senate District 24. CV: @DemMaj4Israel, Scriber, #TeamPete, @YahooNews, @Seedrs US, @TheAtlantic, @CBSNews, @CNN.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

This is a national embarrassment and we need to fix it.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

It's hard to overstate how much of an outlier California is for its slow vote-counting relative to literally any other state or almost any other industrialized democracy.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

@juliaturner @sherlyholmes 🙈

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

To my friends and supporters: you don’t need to check the LA County Registrar’s website every 10 minutes 🙃

There’s a ballot “dump” every day around 4 or 5pm.

We’ll know a lot more in a few days—but our campaign is very confident we’re in the top two.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

Good explainer 👇

[Elex Michaelson @Elex_Michaelson]

Why does California take so long to count ballots?

In short, the state’s leaders have prioritized expanding last minute options to vote by mail over a quick count.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

@Elex_Michaelson He’s right! You were fantastic.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

@SionRoy Shy, as I hope you know, I have enormous respect and admiration for you. It's been a pleasure getting to know you over the last fourteen months.

Grateful for your public service...and I look forward to benefitting from your wisdom and experience in the months and years ahead.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

Early returns are very encouraging and we will keep you updated. Grateful for all our supporters across SD24.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

Honored to be supported by our great Assemblymember @RickChavezZbur.

Now let’s get out the vote and win!

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

As polls close in California, here’s a briefing on what to expect tonight:

First and foremost: be patient.

California is one of the slowest-counting states in the country. We expect only about half of all votes cast in this election to be counted by 7:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday morning. Under California law, mail ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive up to seven days later and still be counted. Accordingly, we may not know tonight which candidates have advanced to the runoff in either the California gubernatorial race or the Los Angeles mayoral race tonight.

California is unusual because it uses a top-two primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot, and the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election.

The most important dynamic to be aware of tonight is the difference between the votes reported on Election Night and the votes counted afterward.

The partisan composition of returned mail ballots is substantially more Republican than it was at this point in 2022. But ballot return data tells us who has voted so far, not who will ultimately vote. There is a meaningful possibility that ballots counted after Wednesday morning, what we often call "the trail," will be considerably more Democratic than the votes reported on Election Night.

Why? California generally counts ballots in the order they are received. Republicans appear to be returning ballots earlier than Democrats this cycle. (1) When controlling for past voting behavior, there are still disproportionately more high-propensity Democratic primary and midterm voters who have not yet returned ballots than high-propensity Republican voters. (2) At the same time, Democrats have generally performed well in turnout across primaries held elsewhere this year, making a dramatic statewide Democratic turnout collapse within the realm of possibility but unlikely. (3) We also know that ballot returns have become progressively more Democratic as Election Day has approached. These three factors indicate the remaining uncounted ballot pool could look quite different from the voters represented in tonight's early returns.

The key question is how large that shift could be.

For example, if Wednesday morning Steve Hilton is at 25% and Tom Steyer is at 21%, can Steyer still catch him? Maybe, maybe not. We need to wait. The race would remain highly uncertain and likely uncallable.

In Merced County, the final pre-Election Day report I received showed roughly 22,000 returned ballots from an electorate that was only R+1 by registration, despite the county itself being approximately D+10 by registration. In 2026 across the country, Democratic turnout in primaries has often exceeded what raw registration figures alone would suggest. Even if Dems fall slightly short here, that would still be a 10 point shift towards Democrats after late-mail ballots.

This would not be unprecedented. In CA-27 in 2024, Republican Mike Garcia led Democrat George Whitesides by 2.4 percentage points on Wednesday morning. By the time all ballots were counted, Whitesides had won by 2.7 points. So, a 5.1 point shift towards Dems in the trail. This year we could see swings of comparable, or even greater, magnitude.

Bottom line: exercise caution when interpreting California results tonight. Early returns may provide valuable information, but they are unlikely to represent the final electorate and the "trail" is hard to predict.

We likely won’t know very much by midnight ET, and the picture may still be unclear by 7:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday. We'll know more Wednesday evening, when counties begin reporting batches of votes from the trail. By around 10:00 p.m. ET, we should have a much better sense of how “the trail” is shaping up.

[Eric Koch @EricDKoch]

If you’re in CA; vote for @GoldsmithB and @MattMahanSJ tomorrow

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

@ASDem Happy bday!

[Alex Thompson @AlexThomp]

Tariffs even more unpopular than the Jan. 6 fund.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

@RichardGrenell https://t.co/hqSn5JMDbM

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

Ok, a friend who lost his home in the Palisades Fire donated a piece of art for us to give away (no donation involved!).

As it happens, it’s going to a woman who lost HER home in the fires as well.

What a scandal!

Especially compared to the president selling his office to the highest bidder(s) and making billions with pardons, insider trading, and unparalleled corruption.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

Ok, a friend who lost his home in the Palisades Fire donated a piece of art for us to give away (no donation involved!).

As it happens, it’s going to a woman who lost HER home in the fires as well.

What a scandal!

Especially compared to the president selling his office to the highest bidder(s) and making billions with pardons, insider trading, and unparalleled corruption.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

Glad you caught our spot!

It’s true that Trump has weaponized the federal government against California, hurting millions of his own supporters with the biggest health care cut in history… tariffs that raise the price of almost everything… cuts to medical research that will make us all sicker and poorer… ICE raids that terrorize Latinos, including legal immigrants and US citizens… I could go on.

As someone who loves this state and wants to fix our biggest problems, it’s a badge of honor to be attacked by you.

[Abhi Gupta @abhiecon]

In a new report by @The_Budget_Lab, we show that this administration's restrictive immigration policies--even if undone after 2028--will make America less dynamic and productive for decades to come. (1/4) https://t.co/lLa6vqD0Z7

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

Honored to have the support of my pal @PeteButtigieg. Please post and share…and vote by June 2!

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

@AndyJFrank Thanks Andy!

[Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton]

This is what Trump's done to the people's house:

A third of it is rubble.

Another third is a cage match.

What a metaphor.

[Brian Goldsmith @GoldsmithB]

@RobertFaturechi Our country will spend years piecing together the staggering graft committed by this criminal family