GoodHouse

Equities, HY Credit, and Macro. Political orphan. Views are my own, not investment advice.

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@AyyouEm Don’t disagree just pointing out market saying this is a stressed credit (hence the opportunity)

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

$CCOI is a stressed credit. At $800m market cap and $2bn net debt (PF for DC sales) it’s LTV is around 70%. The 2032s are secured paper trading around 8% yield. If they were coming with unsecured, they’d be looking at a 10-11% rate. Makes it “uninvestable” for many

[Aaron Chan @RecurveCapital]

$CCOI bond amendments are done: https://t.co/iSclqbGFZv

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@gruust And they will probably generate additional cash proceeds from DC sales, perhaps another $200m, between now and then. And they’ll be able to grow sales and EBITDA into perpetuity

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@gruust Since they closed the Sprint deal they have cumulatively burned $222m (including IP transit payments from TMUSA). With the recently announced $225m DC sale, they’ve essentially had $0 net cash outlay. They generate $324m EBITDA at restricted group, and burn ~$130m at Cogent Fiber

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@gruust Over the next couple years EBITDA at restricted group will grow while Cogent Fiber burn will shrink. Net net, I think $300m of EBITDA by 2028 is very achievable. That compares to a $240m run-rate pre-Sprint. So they will have grown EBITDA by 25% with $0 net incr. invested capital

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@AyyouEm Agreed, and I think it’s smart for them to do this instead, but it’s still analytically correct to categorize this as a “stressed” credit based on where the secureds trade, LTV math, etc.

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

$RXT showing once again that “just plug your nose and buy” tends to work when a distressed company starts aggressively buying back bonds 😂

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

But that is what creates the opportunity. Buying great assets when they are stressed is a tried and true effective strategy to generate above-average returns

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

$RXT signed an agreement with $AMD to deploy a 30MW footprint for AMD-based compute 👀

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@ACapitalLP 🤷‍♂️

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

Not so sure about this. Should midstream companies really trade at a lower multiple than E&P’s?

[Wall Street Rollup @WallStRollup]

Jim Chanos: "Middlemen should never trade at higher multiples than the company that controls their supply"

[Aaron Chan @RecurveCapital]

$CCOI bond amendments are done: https://t.co/iSclqbGFZv

[Barstool Sports @barstoolsports]

EVERYONE IN NYC IS SINGING EMPIRE STATE OF MIND

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@ACapitalLP Fair 👍

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@yenoms Not super close to $LILA but given he just zeroed his QVC pref and common shareholders (the QVC TopCo entity was the original Liberty Media) I can’t imagine this trades well. Will not be a buyer

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

GCI Liberty $GLIBA / $GLIBK interesting spinoff. Alaskan wireline and wireless quasi-monopoly with sub-3x leverage trading for 5x EBITDA. Peers like $CHTR $CMCSA and $ATUS have higher leverage, trade 7-8x. John Malone staying on as EC 👀

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

@ACapitalLP Want to like this thing but how much equity value is there for an entity that gets refi’d at a 15% interest rate + 20% amort?

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

The 2027 US Treasury tax-take from long-term capital gains related to 2026 mega IPOs is going to be epic

[GoodHouse @GoodHouseCap]

Massive El Niño coming = bullish for $POOL $LESL ? 👀

[Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ @FreightAlley]

Amazon should buy Forward Air

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

Realizing SpaceX alone might be worth more than the entire US high yield market.