Historically, market tops are preceded by investor euphoria – often by long periods of time. So where is it? Remember, wary Bulls are the best kind of Bulls. @sentimentrader
Hopeium: Once Government shut down ends, market will pump back up ?
In 2019, during the U.S. Government Shutdown Dec 22 – Jan 25, Bitcoin dropped −20%, then rallied +300% in the next few months. 📈
Now in 2025, another shutdown BTC has dropped −21% so far. Same pattern forming again.
If 2019’s playbook repeats, Bitcoin should pump after the Government opens.
🟣late 2020 - late 2021 = overshoot power law
🔴late 2021 - late 2022 = undershoot power law
🟢early 2023 - early 20204 = recover to power law
🟢early 2024 - late 2025 = grinding up along power law
⚠️2026 = either we overshoot again, undershoot, or grind up along power law
🟣overshoot = $200k - $600k per coin
🟢grind against = $150k per coin
🔴undershoot = $60k - $80k per coin
Time is on our side.
I know a lot of people are calling for a "cycle top".
And the reason is based on the last 3 cycles.
But this cycle could be a bit different.
First of all, we had a new ATH before halving, which never happened before.
Also, the $BTC uptrend has been very much sustained, unlike past cycles.
Along with that, Bitcoin has been consolidating above $100K for almost 6 months, which doesn't happen during a blow-off top.
I won't rule out a correction, but a 60%-70% crash doesn't seem likely now.
Your brain is literally programmed to lose money in markets.
The same mental patterns that make you successful in life will destroy you as a trader.
Mark Douglas figured out how to rewire your trading psychology. Here are his 10 insights:
Every crypto bull run tells the same story.
Pump. Shakeout. Violent reversal. Full send.
Right now, we’re deep in the shakeout phase — the part that tests conviction while smart money reloads.
Leverage gets flushed. Fear takes over. Then the next leg begins.
ETF inflows are steady. Liquidity’s expanding. The macro backdrop is bullish.
This pullback isn’t the end — it’s the reset before acceleration.
🎥 Watch: https://t.co/UHSBhPkxcG
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