Jay Kaeppel

Jay is Senior Market Analyst at and author of Seasonal Stock Market Trends (Wiley). Trader, writer, instructor and former CTA.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Does the recent brief uptick in the Corporate Insider Buy/Sell Ratio for XLY constitute a "Buy" signal for consumer discretionary? By itself, probably not.
BUT it's also NOT a bad sign. @sentimentrader

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Motivation Monday.
https://t.co/H1QdVKPo17

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Crude oil ($USO) remains in a strong uptrend. Could things change quickly - particularly when November rolls around? Seasonality suggests that it could (though for now, am definitely NOT fighting the trend). @sentimentrader

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Regional banks ($KRE) popped recently. Could the move follow through? Seasonality suggests that it could. @sentimentrader

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Yes, Gold is at or near a key inflection point. Ignore all "predictions", instead, "Listen to the Market."

[The Aden Forecast @TheAdenForecast]

Gold's recent weakness may be setting the stage for its next advance.

Our short-term leading indicator has fallen to extremely oversold levels, suggesting gold may be nearing the end of its decline.

Meanwhile, gold continues to hold above $4,000 and its rising 23-month moving average.

But there's another key level we're watching closely.

A sustained move above it could signal the start of a renewed advance across the entire metals sector.

Where do you see gold heading next?

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Motivation Monday: You Are Not Behind
https://t.co/sYyP4YC1f2

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

@DonAlle14811898 @sentimentrader Probably.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

A significant warning sign from the @sentimentrader Nasdaq Titanicburg indicator exceeds 35. Make of it what you will.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

@TraderGaucho_ @sentimentrader Correct. The win rate for 2 months after any indicator reading of 35 or more is 20% with a median return of -8.58%. NOT a sure thing, but a clear warning sign IMO.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

A good synopsis. TIPS have benefits BUT are NOT without risks, especially in a rising rate environment. 2022 they got clobbered despite 9% inflation because rates moved higher. Know what you own.

[Cullen Roche @cullenroche]

I don't think Jake is harsh enough about long-term TIPS. Some people say the 3% real yield on 30 year TIPS is a “guaranteed” high return. This understates the risks:

1) Inflation is personal, not national. TIPS track CPI, not your spending. And in a taxable account you pay tax on the inflation adjustment every year before you get the cash. At 4% inflation and a 24% bracket, that 3% real becomes about 1.3%.

2) The irony of TIPS is they’re the bond most likely to get stiffed in a very high inflation. Rising inflation raises the government’s interest bill when it can least afford it. Argentina didn’t default on its inflation-linked bonds. It just understated inflation for years. Same result. TIPS are supposed to protect you from inflation, but in a high inflation the government has every incentive to make sure they don’t.

3) TIPS lag. They’re indexed to CPI from about three months ago, and the inflation adjustment gets added to principal you don’t receive until maturity. So in a high inflation, when you need the cash most, they aren’t even keeping up in real time.

TIPS are a useful shorter duration matching tool, one of the best. They’re just not a guarantee, certainly not in the long-run. And for most people matching long duration assets to long duration liabilities, equities are usually the better option, in large part because the return premium comes from the lack of a guarantee.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

In the interest of balance, Wow, I sure got that one wrong. Its rare that the masses "get it right" but they did this time (at least so far) as treasuries have popped.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Everyone is trying to position for "the inevitable rebound rally." Alternative scenario: Lower until the bottom pickers puke (mid-November?), THEN a bounce. @sentimentrader

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

The stuff I follow is still bullish stocks, so I am still bullish stocks. BUT there are A LOT of warning signs flashing. So its "head on a swivel" time IMO... @sentimentrader

[The Aden Forecast @TheAdenForecast]

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are trading near record highs.

But the caution signs continue flashing.

Market breadth has plunged to a century-low!

That means fewer stocks are doing the heavy lifting, while many others are struggling.

The indexes remain bullish, but the foundation is looking increasingly fragile.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

@KestrelQuant @sentimentrader The bottom clip represents the hypothetical growth of $1 in the HUI index from TDY 198 to TDY 211 each year since 1985. Make of it what you will...

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Could gold miners ($HUI=Gold Bugs Index) rally in the weeks ahead? Of course. That said, historically, holding gold miners in late October has been an awful bet. @sentimentrader

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Motivation Monday. BTW, this is written by my son who survived open heart surgery three years ago. He doesn't talk much about it. But he does in this piece. Please consider giving it a read. https://t.co/9imqQaJSI7

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

My "gut" keeps worrying about a market downdraft. My weight-of-the-evidence indicators (for example, % of SPY stocks above 50dma crosses above 30% while the ETF close > 50-day average) keep giving favorable signals. What's a disciplined investor to do? @sentimentrader

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Not until it does. And then it will likely matter a lot. Until then...
Jay's Trading Maxim #18: Follow the trend, but DO NOT fall in love with the trend.
@sentimentrader

[Mike @MarketMike]

This is the Buffett Indicator. It takes the total value of the US stock market and divides it by US GDP.

Right now it reads 244%. That is the highest on the chart, and above the +2 standard deviation historical trend line.

Does this even matter anymore?

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Is it time to look at the Transportation sector? A reversal off of overly bearish sentiment (i.e., the 50-day average of @Sentimentrader IYT Optix crossed above 36) suggests "Yes."

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Everyone is trying to position for "the inevitable rebound rally." Alternative scenario: Lower until the bottom pickers puke (mid-November?), THEN a bounce. @sentimentrader

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY MIND-BLOWING:

Call-option volume on the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, has exploded to a record 14.9 million contracts over the last month.

This is TRIPLE the levels seen in January.

This signals rapidly growing bullish positioning toward long-term Treasuries, as call options give traders exposure to a potential rise in bond prices if yields fall.

The bet comes after the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields spiked to 5.33% and 5.73%, their highest levels in 24 years.

Meanwhile, $TLT is down -8.5% so far in 2026 and fell -9.0% in Q3 alone.

Options traders are increasingly betting that the historic rise in yields is approaching its limit.

Risky bets on long-term Treasuries are skyrocketing.

[Jay Kaeppel @jaykaeppel]

Overall, corporate insider buying has cooled lately, EXCEPT in the Healthcare sector, where insiders continue to load up. Guaranteed higher price? No. Solidly favorable weight of the evidence? You bet. @sentimentrader