Grace McLain

Project Delivery Associate @Metaculus. Views my own.

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

I deleted my account in 2023 with a few thousand followers and a record of my thoughts going back to 2010.

I'm back, with a clean slate. Mostly here to quietly observe.

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@tsvibt Thank you!

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@GarrisonLovely I find people respond so much better to the tangible economic risks ("rich people will get richer while you lose your job!") than x-risks that sound both paralyzingly huge and remind them of a local cult leader declaring the next doomsday.

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@RokoMijic I've been yapping away for years about how we need a docudrama Y2K movie

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

It's been interesting getting reactions to these projections at The Curve & EAG NYC - AI Safety folks think our AI Safety number is way too low, global health folks think the windfall is way below what they need, philanthropy folks think we're pretty spot on

What do YOU think??

[Metaculus @metaculus]

https://t.co/6T6c7PG3dp

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

For those who asked me about this at the Curve, here's a more comprehensive answer than the ones I gave :)

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Last month GPT-6 Astra (@chatgpt) beat Montezuma's Revenge, and a lot of people declared that our "weakly general AI" question, originally launched in 2020, resolved.

But…it still hasn’t resolved.

We wanted to give everyone a quick update on where things actually stand and the steps we’re currently taking (cc @swishfever @joeykrug @emollick). 🧵

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@Tubal22 @tomekkorbak @balesni @j_asminewang They are a non-profit with very transparent funding and governance structures.

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@philiptorr Yep. I personally think public messaging should lead with economic impacts. People are already feeling so squeezed that this feels more salient, tangible, and feasible than crazy-sounding existential risk.

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@DavidSKrueger This workshop was my first event in the AI Safety world, after a career pivot. You/this talk were instrumental in shaping my thinking on the subject, and I appreciate the accessible and tangible ways you talk about existential risk and pathways to stop AI.

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@DavidSKrueger @jackclarkSF Calling this the most useful thing at the curve is really something lol.

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@GarrisonLovely I thought your question during yesterday's big name Q&A was excellent - thanks for asking it. But such a disappointingly unsatisfying answer.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

The Anthropic & OpenAI IPOs could mint thousands of new millionaires, & a lot of them plan to give. But how much will actually reach the philanthropic ecosystem? Some predictions:

@nanransohoff: $37B+/year
@georgecaweiner: $12-32B to DAFs
@cogcelia: $37.9B from 7 Anthropic co-founders

Our forecasters expect $100B+ in pledges, but only ~$26B of it to reach charities by 2031. We used our new visual mapping tool, Radiant, to land at those numbers. Read more here:

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@copykat510 Per the usual, he's the only politician paying any attention 🫠

Hopefully his awareness and efforts will get more of them on board with AI safety policies ASAP

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@jojo01cl @metaculus check the resolution criteria on the linked question!

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@AlexFinn So we get to work all the time now... hooray

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@HumanHarlan And in January 2020, all the epidemiologists were freaking out, while no one else paid them any attention. Feels way too familiar to the vibes in the AI safety space currently.

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@ebysslabs @HumanHarlan I'm curious what you think the purpose of governance is, if not allocating resources toward collective benefit? 🤔

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

@Prashant_Garg_ I'm incredibly upset that you thought of this idea before I did 🤣 This is fantastic! Well done.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

1/ Which jobs are most vulnerable to AI automation?

The Labor Automation Forecasting Hub now has individual pages for 15 US occupations, including:
- Community forecasts at 2027, 2030, and 2035
- Pro Forecaster commentary
- 3 distinct AI exposure metrics (Felten, M&A vulnerability, Anthropic). More details about each in the replies.
Curious which jobs forecasters think will grow or contract, and the reasoning behind the forecasts? Read on 🧵