Metaculus

Forecasts on critical topics.

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub:

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Beyond these forecasts on impeachment, tariffs, war powers, the Supreme Court and abortion, the midterms tracker has state-by-state Senate and governor races and seat counts for each chamber: https://t.co/RMAiNwCdXJ

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Health care: restoring the enhanced ACA credits is at 67% if Democrats win both chambers, 12% if split, 3% if Republicans hold both.

And a bill restricting abortion funding or access is at 44% if Republicans hold both, 3% if split, and under 1% if Democrats win both.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@Kalshi For folks interested in what the Anthropic IPO might mean for the philanthropic ecosystem, we created a networked forecast map breaking down where funds are projected to go by cause area using Radiant: https://t.co/rjafS4H2kM

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@PaulBonnet For folks interested in what this IPO might mean for the philanthropic ecosystem, we created a networked forecast map breaking down where funds are projected to go by cause area using Radiant: https://t.co/rjafS4H2kM

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@Reuters For folks interested in what this IPO might mean for the philanthropic ecosystem, we created a networked forecast map breaking down where funds are projected to go by cause area using Radiant: https://t.co/rjafS4HAak

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@AndrewBenson For folks interested in what this IPO might mean for the philanthropic ecosystem, we created a networked forecast map breaking down where funds are projected to go by cause area using Radiant: https://t.co/rjafS4H2kM

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@CNBC For folks interested in what this IPO might mean for the philanthropic ecosystem, we created a networked forecast map breaking down where funds are projected to go by cause area using Radiant: https://t.co/rjafS4HAak

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Our Global Health Monitor dashboard is live!

On it you'll find forecasts on infectious disease threats from Metaculus Pro Forecasters & our community, updated live and summarized every month. https://t.co/SniExnxAyN

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@bworldph To this: we've produced 2 forecast maps predicting how much of the AI IPO windfall will actually reach charities, by cause area.

Map 1 writeup: https://t.co/IJVDAZ1F6Q
Map 2 writeup: https://t.co/rjafS4H2kM

You can fork the maps for free on Radiant (see posts for more details).

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@Berenberg_Econ To this: we've produced 2 forecast maps predicting how much of the AI windfall will actually reach charities, by cause area.

Map 1: https://t.co/IJVDAZ2cWo
Map 2: https://t.co/rjafS4HAak

You can fork the maps for free on Radiant (see posts for more details).

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@wi_john @nytimes To this: we've produced a few forecast maps predicting how much money will actually reach charities, by cause area.

Map 1 writeup: https://t.co/IJVDAZ1F6Q
Map 2 writeup: https://t.co/rjafS4H2kM

You can fork the maps for free on Radiant (see posts for more details).

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

It's been interesting getting reactions to these projections at The Curve & EAG NYC - AI Safety folks think our AI Safety number is way too low, global health folks think the windfall is way below what they need, philanthropy folks think we're pretty spot on

What do YOU think??

[Metaculus @metaculus]

@Reuters To this: we've produced a few forecast maps predicting how much money will actually reach charities, by cause area.

Map 1 writeup: https://t.co/IJVDAZ1F6Q
Map 2 writeup: https://t.co/rjafS4H2kM

You can fork the maps for free on Radiant (see posts for more details).

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Nice to see @ezraklein mention the "Gradual Disempowerment" paper that our CEO, @degerturann, coauthored.

Read the full paper here: https://t.co/TDURhUKi5M

[Metaculus @metaculus]

The @AnthropicAI & @OpenAI IPOs could put tens of billions of dollars into philanthropy. Our cause area Radiant map asks: Where exactly will that money go? We explain our process and forecasts here:

[Metaculus @metaculus]

https://t.co/6T6c7PG3dp

[Metaculus @metaculus]

https://t.co/6T6c7PG3dp

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Ever wanted to explore forecasting questions by country/region? Check out the Metaculus World Map, created by @ryanbeck111, our Director of Forecasting: https://t.co/3IL9mpCMfr

[Ethan Mollick @emollick]

Not only did Astra beat Montezuma's Revenge, but so did Opus 5

But one of the criteria to resolve this AGI bet is for AI to win a discontinued prize that was sort of like a weak Turing Test. So Metaculus has decided to recreate the test to confirm the criteria is resolved. Neat!

[Grace McLain @GraceMcLain]

For those who asked me about this at the Curve, here's a more comprehensive answer than the ones I gave :)