TannerySixtyfoldRage

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@reddragon2604 Thanks for the update.
Previous pauses have been used to gather intel and re-target. U still unaddressed.
I'd love to have real insight! Seems very uncertain.

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@reddragon2604 And just for thoroughness... Why April 27th?

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@reddragon2604 Is there a reason you focus on NVDA puts and not SMH (or similar) given that the "price" of NVDA options is likely higher than an ETF and the ETF contains weaker names that, presumably, would fall more in a correction?

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@CapitalObserver Bot some CRM, OWL, and RXO...

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@CapitalObserver @MacroCharts I agree there's a lot of financial leverage. Prob another Archegos somewhere. It's the timing that's tough. And, per the prior post, cap structure can be a "mechanical" amplifier.
What's the definition of "Market Cap Adjusted Margin Debt"?

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@CapitalObserver Wouldn't it be the ratio between the asset and debt values that'd indicate fragility. At the lows it's like 300 / 150 vs 2500 / 1250 now??? (very rough eyeballing).
So, cap structure ~constant?
Not an argument to buy as I think equities are at extremes.

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@HayekAndKeynes Small short as of yesterday.
Technicals.

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@CapitalObserver @LJKawa Or re-levering, but same idea...

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@baupak It's cute, but I can't get it to work...

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

Model not terribly reliable, but notable that it currently has the end of the 90 day pause as the gold peak...

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@baupak I just used papers I found on the web. Sornette is widely cited.

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@baupak No update. And that fit wasn't very helpful.

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@CapitalObserver This sounds like a car lease residual... Does META get to decide the value that they have to pay?

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@evantindell Like Blue Owl... What's the 12% note really worth? Par???

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@dampedspring What do you think of an operation like Welltower?

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@shortseller

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@shortseller Any chance for a read on $BBWI?

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@partners_road Starting to nibble here, FWIW.
Firing CEO and slashing guidance.
Stock -75% from highs. Back to COVID levels.
No hurry...

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@CapitalObserver It seems that the *rational* belief in the *continuation* of the bubble is key... Media coverage is "creation / evidence of agreement"?

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@HayekAndKeynes Don't be so hard on yourself 🤣

[TannerySixtyfoldRage @GratifyGoldmine]

@shortseller yup