Greenerbucks

Registered Investment Adviser incorporated in the State of California CRD 324622

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

The current US administration has canceled a number of offshore wind power projects. Where are investment funds being redirected? #energy #renewables #privateequity #climatechange #Congress https://t.co/RYSbi6l1S4

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Looking at this two-day Bloomberg chart, the retracement in 30-year government bond yields (i.e., higher) isn't surprising, given what history tells us about the inherent short-term effects of announcements like the one we heard from the Treasury yesterday.
What is surprising is the speed and magnitude of the retracement.
#economy #markets #yields #bonds

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

In defending Scott Bessent’s foray into the long end of the Treasury curve (Mr. Intervention), Donald Trump had the temerity to publicly lament that interest rates are “artificially high” and “ridiculous.” But what is not “artificial,” and is truly “ridiculous,” is that during his time in office, the national debt has ballooned by nearly $12 trillion. In other words, 30% of all the federal debt the United States has incurred in its 250-year history has come under his watch. Can’t blame Joe Biden for this one.

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

Corporate America is blowing past Wall Street’s expectations for a stellar earnings season, adding to the rosy backdrop for a stock market trading near a record high https://t.co/RlagPolK7p #earnings #economics #equities #USA #bullmarket #markets

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The July US CPI inflation numbers are out and landed firmly in line with consensus forecasts across the board:
Headline CPI of 3.4% YoY (0.1% MoM); and
Core CPI of 2.5% YoY (0.2% MoM)
Market reaction is muted to modestly favorable, marked by a slight decline in bond yields and a small drop in the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike.
#economy #inflation #markets #federalreserve

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Good morning.
A better start to the week for risk markets across the board, as oil drops 5% (CNBC table below) on the pause in US-Iran strikes:
Stocks, gold, and bitcoin are all higher, as are government bond prices (lower yields).
#economy #bonds #stocks #bitcoin #gold #oil #investing #investors

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

It’s one of those market days where the vast majority of asset classes are down, including stocks, bonds, crypto, and gold.
The blame game points to the one asset class that is notably higher today: energy. And for good reason—$100 Brent crude complicates the economic, corporate, and policy outlooks.
Beyond the obvious, keep a close eye on debt and leverage dynamics.
#economy #markets #oil #energy #stocks #bonds #crypto #bitcoin #gold

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

@elonmusk Ilia’s Kasidiaris was a leader of Golden Dawn convicted of directing a criminal organization who in 2012 refused to condemn Adolph Hitler stating “his role in history will be judged in time” and wore SS symbols. He quoted from “The Elders of the Protocols of Zion.”#Kasidiaris

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

Kevin Warsh vows Federal Reserve will be ‘resolute’ in inflation fight https://t.co/RkuCSsuM8l via @ft #FederalReserve #Fed #KevinWarsh #inflation #interestrates #treasuries #economics

[Republicans against Trump @RpsAgainstTrump]

Lindsey Graham on Joe Biden (2015):

“If you can't admire Joe Biden as a person, you got a problem because what's not to like? He's the nicest person I think I've ever met in politics. He is as good a man as God ever created."

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

Happy 250th anniversary to a country with more immigrants than any other country on earth. The US despite myriad problems continues to excel at innovation and cooperation. Let’s hope that equity and health continue to improve for Americans. #4thofJuly #independence #USA

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

...
The Sintra focus now shifts to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
Will he just stick closely to what he said at the FOMC press conference, or will he clarify what some -- including me -- feel was too hawkish a market interpretation of his rate view?
(That market interpretation has contributed to a flattening of the yield curve, with the 2s10s spread currently at 31 bps.)
#economy #centralbanks #federalreserve #markets

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

I could not believe my eyes when I read what former Kansas City Fed President Esther George had to say in an interview today to the effect that she wouldn’t even wait till September to start hiking rates again.  And here we have Kevin Warsh at the helm, who prides himself on being an Alan Greenspan disciple (may the Maestro rest in peace).  The question is – would Greenspan really be talking about a rate hike?  He followed market indicators, not flawed government data like the CPI or PCE deflator.

As in:

(i) The yield curve:  The 2s/10s curve has flattened nearly +20 basis points since late May to just +30 basis points; (ii) The dollar:  In just five months, the DXY has strengthened nearly +6%; (iii) Credit spreads:  CCC-BB rated spreads have widened out more than +30 basis points since the end of May and are approaching 800 basis points for the first time since Liberation Day in April 2025; (iv) Commodity prices: The CRB index has rolled over by -13% from the nearby May peak; (v) Gold:  Down more than -10% in just the past month and by -27% from the early-year highs.

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

Fed holds rates steady as 9 of18 FOMC participants pencil in a 2026 rate hike. #interestrates #Fed #economics #baserate #credit #fixedincome https://t.co/0wOJzJiBQh

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

More evidence of a a k-shaped economy in the US? #consumer #credit #economics

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Wall Street Journal:
"In the first quarter of this year, the percentage of [US] credit-card balances that were at least 90 days delinquent rose to 13.12%.... That��s the highest level in 15 years, and the most since the period following the 2008 financial crisis."
#economy #markets #affordability @WSJ

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

The Canadian economy edged into a technical recession as weak business and government spending drove a slight contraction in the first quarter https://t.co/eyTRKpAf4o #Canada #economics #GDP #recession #Loonie

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

Remembering soldiers who never returned home on Memorial Day. We should never forget that wars are the collective responsibility of citizens that live in democracies and so it follows that there is a collective responsibility to acknowledge military service. #MemorialDay #service

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

This development in Long Bond Yields is important for the US economy and investors. #treasuries #fixedincome #yield #inflation #economics #markets https://t.co/06jgUMcD6v

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

CPI inflation in the US rose 3.8% from a year ago. #economics #inflation #interestrates #oil #tariffs #consumer https://t.co/qxkGOOnWUy

[Greenerbucks @GreenerBucks]

US employers added to payrolls for a second month in April, marking the first back-to-back advance in nearly a year, and the unemployment rate held steady https://t.co/Y89CEmQLLn #Nonfarm #economics #jobs #unemployment #USA