WE FINALLY KNOW WHY THE MARKET CRASHED ON 10 OCTOBER AND WHY IT JUST CANT BOUNCE!
We never really understood why the big crypto crash started on October 10th and why we couldn't even get a single meaningful bounce!
Today the answer seem simple!
Let me break it down.
1. DAT's like MSTR, BMNR and others have been one of 2 big buyers that powered this cycle.
2. The DAT game is simple, you need to be the biggest so that you get into the big indices and when you do, passive index trackers are forced to buy large amounts of your stock. As they do you get bigger and get added to more indices, and so the cycle perpetuates.
3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".
4. If they are "funds" they are not included in passive indexing. why, because this creates a circular loop. The fund buys assets , gets bigger and then is included in more indices and buys more assets.
5. The expected ruling will be announced on 15 January 2026 and if this does pass, the companies like MSTR will be automatically removed from all indices.
6. If this happens it would mean that all the pension funds, normal funds and all other passive index holders would dump their MSTR automatically.
7. It would also mean that going forward they would never be included and as such , one of the big reasons why they actually exist would disappear.
8 . Since DATs have been powering this cycle and have been most the buying pressure, the smart money saw this immediately after the 10TH of October announcement and positioned accordingly.
9. The 10TH of October wasn't a coincidence after all - It was smart money seeing a big risk to crypto and the current market structure.
10. The market will probably continue to dum until around the end of December and if the announcement is negative, we will get a huge dump in preparation for the removal from the indices.
11. On the other hand , if it is positive , the bull market is back!!
I broke this down on a 10 minute video this morning and I will leave a link in the next tweet!
If you enjoyed this analysis, please retweet and follow this account!
Why Ethena adopted DATs early
1. What changed
Ethena is merging into TLGY’s SPAC, which will list as StablecoinX on Nasdaq (USDE). The deal lines up ~$360m ($260m cash plus ~$60m of locked $ENA from the Foundation).
The cash is earmarked for immediate spot $ENA purchases; the $ENA contributed sits permanently on the public company’s balance sheet alongside validator and infra operations.
2. Why a DAT, per Guy Young
Crypto native capital looks tapped out. Alt market cap peaked at roughly the same level in 2021 and 2024, implying limited incremental retail bid for most tokens. Equity markets, by contrast, are orders of magnitude larger and already chasing stablecoin exposure.
Ultimatley, the goal is a steady, at NAV access to a deeper investor base. Also equity capital can offset the structural overhang from VC unlocks that crypto alone struggles to absorb.
3. Mechanics
On signing, ~$260m buys spot ENA while ~$60m of locked ENA moves to StablecoinX, taking total initial control near ~9% of supply. That retires tokens into a non trading treasury and sets up the $ENA up → StablecoinX NAV/share up → cheaper follow ons → more $ENA buys loop. Quarterly filings will mark holdings to market, putting $ENA squarely on tradfi screens.
4. K-market torque
Korean retail already chased Circle’s equity. Upbit listed $ENA on July 11; volumes spiked immediately. That gives Korea direct token access before the Nasdaq line is live—fertile ground for a CRCL style rotation into $ENA if the SPAC timeline hits milestones. Needless to say, $ENA is already becoming one of Korea's most favorite coins.
5. State of the core business
USDe has climbed into the no. 3 spot among stablecoins and keeps growing ($11.3b as of Aug 18); the macro bid for stablecoin rails is real (and widely covered in equity research after Circle’s IPO). $ENA remains the higher beta, token native way to express that theme.
6. What to watch
NAV premia on DATs likely mean revert; most vehicles won’t enjoy Saylor style leverage, so don’t underwrite persistent premiums. Watch the daily execution of the $ENA buy program, the discount/premium of StablecoinX vs. its marked ENA, USDe supply growth, and Korea’s share of spot volume. The thesis works with a sustained 1.0x NAV and consistent inflows; a premium is nice to have, not the point.
7. Bottom line
Ethena is using public equity plumbing to tap a much larger capital base, neutralize unlock overhang, and convert equity flows into permanent $ENA demand. If the raise executes as outlined and USDe continues to scale, ENA is positioned as the liquid, higher beta catch up to Circle’s equity trade, now with a clear rationale for the DAT structure itself.
🚨I sold 33% of my $ETH bag today
Most will call me an idiot for what I’m about to do...
But I've seen this setup back in 2017 and 2021
Here's why I will SELL everything by the end of October