MarcGRT

Ex restructuring banker, passion for steaks and investing

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@EnergyCredit1 To be fair in Spain, even at simple looking places you can get amazing Chuleton steak. Just read the reviews and look at the meat. Yellow fat and served rare only are great indications. The more popular with the locals also often better

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@Mark_IKN Any views (maybe for ikn) about the srl news release regarding the samples?

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

Cut the act. Acting all cool and detached doesn't make you look like some hotshot trader.

You really call this 'being too emotional'? This is just a perfectly justified critique of Axios churning out absolute garbage.

You're not the only one who knows Barak is just a stenographer running a dictation machine.

We all know it, so stop acting like you've discovered some groundbreaking truth.

Everyone is losing their minds bc he's taking it way too far. That’s all.

#oott #iran

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@joeriwestland @oldeconjunkie Drill ships are ships. Ships break down when they are like 25 years, are expensive in maintenance etc... None of the drilling rigs today are "new". Jack-ups are imo much more durable as they now show to operate for 40 years...
Lots of CF to come in the tail

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@Empiretrader82 Was happy to sell a bit of Dundee on that mention and bought everything sold already back. Will probably see another jump after the RR congress.

My largest position by far and such an easy hold

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@ICBarrett @Mark_IKN @CommodMkt At least I was a happy buyer at $5.20 yesterday before the post :) Really like the case for $BORR here in the next 2-5 years. As a European investor, pretty traumatized by windfall taxes, so prefer the likes of $TGA.L for energy exposure as well as oil services companies

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@PerpetualValue Even if it is true , which I don't believe, it will be extremely fragile. So many parties here that have an interest in a prolonged conflict, keeping the peace will be difficult..

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@JoshYoung @JoeTheMiner0 Even with a peace agreement, how to reliably open the SoH? First you got the mines, second any peace agreement will likely be fragile, which shipowners will send their vessels back in first? One idiot with a rocket launcher can take away all trust..

[Jesse Cohen @JesseCohenInv]

Bond yields are spiking higher around the world.

This is going to be a very serious problem soon.

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@coeus12345 Not talking about Robert and Eytan?

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@TheDriller11 A 40 year old jack up at a day rate of $132k/day in Nigeria...

By itself pretty insane. Don't own enough $BORR ...

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@toooldforfears @AlpacaAurelius Old Jersey milk cows make some of the best (dry aged) steaks in the world. Shocker nobody seems to know... The yellow fat is amazing

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@ICBarrett Impressive, I am still buying both and averaging up. Think they both have a lot of upside left, even if the SoH magically opens withing the next month.

Note $Borr on an EV basis is not even up that crazy much and recent acquisitions could be long term winners

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@Ultradeep3 @GringoInvesting To me this seems to make perfect sense. UK also wanted NE to divest some assets after the DO acquisition if I remember correctly. Question is which ones. $RIG would probably be ok with the JU fleet, but that would not solve the drillship "dominance"

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@SebKrog I see Valencia and Alicante? Great places to be. What are the others?

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

This is the huge benefit that retail and small funds (< USD 100m) have. The one way to still substantially and continuously outperform large institutional investors.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

The Warren Buffett who built the foundation of every dollar he is worth today was not the Buffett of the cardigan and the Coca-Cola and the moats-and-brands sermons that fill the annual letters of his later years.

The Buffett who actually compounded at 50% a year in the partnership era of the 1950s and 1960s was a 26-year-old in Omaha reading the Moody’s manuals page by page, looking for tiny, illiquid, ignored, unloved, unfashionable companies trading below net current asset value, and buying small positions in dozens of them at the same time, holding them in a partnership structure that almost nobody outside Nebraska knew existed, and waiting for the math to do what the math always does.

He bought a windmill company. He bought a streetcar company. He bought a coal company in Philadelphia. He bought a map company. He bought a New England textile mill that turned out to be the worst investment of his career and that, against all his original intentions, became the holding company that bears its name today.

He bought net-nets. He bought nanocaps. He bought companies with $4 million market caps and balance sheets full of cash that nobody on Wall Street had bothered to look at since the war. He did not love the businesses. He loved the math.

The math was that he was paying 50 to 60 cents on the dollar for liquid assets, and the dollar would, over some unknowable but finite period of time, find its way back to 100 cents, and the difference, compounded across a portfolio of 30 to 40 names, was the entire engine of the early returns that made everything that came later possible.

He himself has said, repeatedly, in interviews and in old letters that almost nobody bothers to read, that if he were running small money today he would do the same thing again, in whatever market still offered the same opportunity. The market that offers it today is OTC pink sheets, and the people who are running the original Buffett playbook in those markets in 2026 are, in a precise structural sense, doing the closest thing in modern finance to actually being him in 1956, and almost nobody else is paying attention, because the late Buffett of the cardigan has been so thoroughly canonized that the early Buffett of the manuals has been almost entirely forgotten, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason the opportunity is still there.

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

@anasalhajji Feels like it is a great plan. On the one hand if the US can escort vessels out from friendly countries, great PR. On the other hand if the Iranian navy attacks, a great excuse to say that Iran forced the US in the war (we were attacked). Maybe even article 5 NATO. Impressive

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

Most met producers also produce (quite) some thermal. The table just gives a good but simplistic overview of some of the independent coal players and their willingness to pay dividends.

There are so many more important nuances. From quality of the coal, cost structures, end markets, government control and especially in Australia windfall taxes.

Also worth to note that some of the best thermal mines are not in this list as they are owned by some of the larger diversified mining groups like Glencore.

[MarcGRT @GrtMarc]

I am a strong believer in coal. As part of the energy diversification mix net energy importers should want to increase their allocation to both coal and uranium.

My favourite stays Thungela. South Africa sounds risky, but last time around, unlike in Australia, no crazy windfall taxes/royalties introduced. Huge FCF was largely given back to shareholders through dividends.

Below a little AI generated table. Kinda shocked with the mistakes AI still makes, but at least a nice overview of dividends.
*Note the rank doesn't mean anything. Table does not take in account seaborne vs local sales, nor costs structures. Key idea is to see which ones will pay out dividends in good times. Where others like AMR did huge buy backs.

$BTU, $TGA.L, $CNR, $EXX.JO, $JSW.WA, $RE4.SI, $YAL.AX, $SMR.AX, $WHC.AX, $ARLP, $AMR, $0975.HK , $1898.HK , $NHC.AX, $1088.HK , $HCC, $LWB.WA