The Grumpy Investor

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@liquidatedxxx I recommend stay tuned for the state polls and compare to the historical numbers, those don't change much. The poll with least state outliers will be more relevant. Now the Futura poll seams more accurate, but it's still early.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@liquidatedxxx Ok, based on momentum it makes sense. Flávio is stupid, defenetily have more scandals to show, and won't unite the right is the first round. But Lula's rejections won't change for the second round. Most polls have numbers that don't make sense looking southeast region.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@cryptobasenji I don't know, but I'm pretty sure is not 60/25

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@_robertomotta Essa cabeça de curto prazo que trouxe o lula de volta ao poder. É essa cabeça de curto prazo que vai trazer o pior da esquerda em 30 ou 34.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@miriammartinho @freire_roberto E deveríamos, já que acabou com um comediante condenado por uma piada. Esse projeto da inveja a qualquer ditadura de terceiro mundo. Não percebem que isso joga o centro mais pra direita? Depois ficam chocados quando um Bolsonaro é eleito.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@WinstonHolmes9 @RobertoReis Pra arrumar o STF não adianta 3 indicações nível Nunes Marques. Não acabaram com país em 20 anos, não vão acabar em 4. Melhor 70% de chances de uma boa opção em 2030, do que 40% de chances de Erika Hilton ser o próximo presidente.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@goescarlos Na época não achava jogador de seleção, como são paulino sempre achei o França muito melhor que ele, mal sabia que mais nenhum 9 chegaria perto dele.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@andreshalders É pior. Ganham muito e são péssimos. Imagina isso interpretando uma lei.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@liquidatedxxx @cryptobasenji You should follow @RenanSantosMBL , he's doing a way better job being the Brazilian Milei/Bukele

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@durpurdurp @kieranwgoodwin That's just bad luck, like when the ball deflects and fools the keeper.

[Ptuomov @ptuomov]

VIX AND EQUITY WEIGHT

The correct time to take more equity risk is when VIX has been high for six months but has been trending down. The correct time to take less equity risk is when VIX has been low for six months but has been trending up.

The target equity weight is then proportional to the target equity risk divided by VIX. Therefore, at most times, low VIX corresponds to high equity weight and high VIX to low equity weight.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@gbguandalini Ainda estão mais animados que o buy side

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@jesspion @madaanmanav @ItsEasypop @TheStalwart https://t.co/AEOAN6UjdD
Sorry, but the original is Rogério Ceni in 2002, Ronaldinho copied him

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@goescarlos Parreira, Zagalo, Dunga e Ancelotti não escalariam por ser muito novo.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@therobotjames @shortbelly @ScottPh77711570 Do you have clients? Show a client asset allocation with the past returns of each class. They will always want to increase what's better YTD or past 12 months.

[The Grumpy Investor @Grumpy_Investor]

@pfnery Tem que comparar com a arrecadação

[Ptuomov @ptuomov]

THE LIFE CYCLE OF A BUBBLE

1. A genuine advancement creates real productivity gains. A real technological or economic improvement increases productivity and leads to genuine revenue and earnings growth.

2. Stock prices leak into reported profitability. Rising stock prices improve reported earnings, financing conditions, collateral values, and perceived business performance.

3. Reported profitability drives real investment. Companies increase hiring, capital spending, construction, expansion, and speculative investment because of their own or their customers’ reported profitability.

4. Bubble beliefs and abandonment of present-value discipline. Investors stop focusing on discounted cash flows and begin relying on continuing gains from the greater fool theory, believing they can sell later at a higher price.

5. Inflows from sideline investors. Previously cautious investors enter the market in large numbers. New money from existing and new investors participation drive prices higher.

6. Extreme overvaluation. Prices rise far above historical normal multiples of reported fundamentals, even ignoring the fact that reported fundamentals have been driven by rising stock prices.

7. Issuance. Companies take advantage of high valuations through IPOs, secondary offerings, stock-based acquisitions, SPACs, and insider selling.

8. Exhaustion of inflows. The flow of new investors starts shrinking while existing investors approach their risk and leverage limits. Volatility and dispersion grow and gains become less uniform across stocks.

9. Earnings disappointments from slowing price appreciation. As stock prices stop rising rapidly, the earlier boost from higher valuations into earnings weakens or reverses. Companies begin missing expectations.

10. Stock-price collapse with high volatility. Confidence in both the fundamental growth and in the greater fool theory break down and prices fall sharply. Volatility rises further as leverage unwinds.

11. Bear-market rallies and progressively greater exhaustion. Bargain hunters and frustrated latecomers repeatedly buy the dips, creating violent temporary rallies that fail. Markets make lower highs and lower lows.

12. Capitulation, abandonment, and normalization. Bubble participants eventually give up in disgust or exhaustion. Volatility falls, valuations normalize, and the market returns to more ordinary behavior.