Gabriel Soyer

Postdoctoral researcher Land Systems for Sustainability Lab. #firstgen Political Economy, GIS, Causal Inference and Latin America . @UGA_INTL @unb_oficial

[Rafael Dix-Carneiro @dix_rafael]

🚨 Forthcoming in Econometrica!

How does trade liberalization affect developing countries with large informal sectors?

Informality fundamentally changes how we think about the gains from trade. (1/5)

[Matias G @mati_g_90]

Thrilled to share that my article "From the Factory Floor to the Ballot Box: Firm-Based Origins of Brazil's Populist Right" is now out at the @BJPolS

https://t.co/f8KaREJffy

The core finding is simple and politically urgent:
Brazil’s radical-right wave wasn’t primarily driven by “the rich vs the poor”, but by workers in declining jobs inside unequal firm structures.

Using RAIS matched employer–employee data + a unique dataset of 69k Bolsonaro supporters + a survey experiments on full-time private sector workers, I show that:
🔹 Workers who supported Bolsonaro experienced real relative decline: falling pay and shrinking occupational premia compared to peers just like them.
🔹 Anti-system attitudes track job quality, not class stereotypes: low autonomy, unfair treatment, and blocked mobility inside firms predict democratic frustration.
🔹 Information about earning less than comparable workers measurably decreases satisfaction with democracy.
🔹 “Low-road” firm conditions (lower pay to comparable skills and occupations, no benefits, rigid schedules, lower autonomy) make otherwise similar workers more likely to endorse anti-system behaviors.

The takeaway: if we want to understand democratic backsliding, we need to look beyond “culture” or macro shocks.

Firms themselves, through wage policies, segmentation, and job-quality gaps, are generating the frustrations that fuel anti-system politics.

@CambridgeUP @CUPAcademic @CambridgeCore

[Gabriel Soyer @Gsoyer_]

@viniciuspecanha @IEPSoficial Que interessante e relevante!

[Gabriel Soyer @Gsoyer_]

@ryancbriggs @chadmaximusjr thanks for sharing the slides! very interesting!

[Gabriel Soyer @Gsoyer_]

@ruivanorio a quantidade de anuncio e outdoor da avestruz master que eu lembro da infancia. Bom que conseguiu usar o OCR!

[Gabriel Soyer @Gsoyer_]

@dyzenhaus That's great! Congrats!

[Gabriel Soyer @Gsoyer_]

@baarthur0 fake news! maximo um casaquinho meio de julho