What’s better than a rare Super Delta formation featuring the Thunderbirds and the @USNavy Blue Angels over Washington, D.C.?
Watching it from four different views for #UFCWhiteHouse as part of #Freedom250. 🇺🇸
The $GME proposed acquisition of $EBAY is even dumber than it sounds, which is why he refused to answer @andrewrsorkin's basic questions this am.
To start, the ACTUAL proposal is not GME acquiring EBAY:
GME is the seller, not the buyer.
Ryan Cohen is asking eBay to acquire GME, fire eBay's CEO, and let Ryan run the business.
Onto the dumbness of the proposal details:
The idea is 50% cash / 50% stock for roughly $56 billion of consideration to eBay.
Pundits note GME's ~$11.1B market cap and ~$9B of existing cash.
BUT THAT DOUBLE-COUNTS.
Of GME's ~$11.1B market cap, ~$9B IS THE CASH.
Or 81% of the market cap.
If I have a company worth $110 with $90 of net cash, it's not worth $180: the cash is worth $90, and the company ex-cash is worth $20 = $110.
As shown below, if GME pays eBay the ~$9B in existing cash, the remaining market cap (from eBay's perspective) is ~$2.1B.
GME shares are worth ~$5/share ex cash.
To issue $28 billion of GME shares, it has to issue ~5.6B of new shares to eBay (vs 590B FD GME shares today), giving eBay 90%+ of the post-deal shares (+ $28 billion of cash to eBay owners).
To be clear, GME is proposing that eBay acquire GME, with GME owning 10% of the CombinedCo.
In 2026, eBay is expected to generate $2.8B of free cash flow vs $500 mm by GameStop (15% of combinedco).
eBay revenue is expected to GROW 9% in 2026 while GME's is expected to shrink 1% (and has shrunk >40% in 5 years).
So eBay brings 85% of the cash flow and is growing, and gets 90% of a newco that is dragged down by GameStop's declining revenue.
To compensate for owning a lower quality CombinedCo, it levers up and pays legacy eBay $62/share in cash.
However, that cash is financed by the quality of eBay's business, not GameStop.
eBay doesn't need GameStop to recap its existing business - it could do so and continue to own 100% of the better business.
Ultimately, this is GME attempting to swap into a better business by selling itself to eBay, not vice versa.
Everyone knows this deal won't happen, Ryan Cohen included.