AUG ‘24 @SMBCAPITAL TAKEAWAYS
1. Yes, I’m not afraid to call a spade a spade. This month was the first month in a while where I was disappointed by the performance of some of the traders.
Too many traders were overly cautious on the morning of August 5th. Too many were hoping and expecting further (!!!) flushout and not aggressive enough buying the gap.
IMO, this was a fundamental error given the major capitulation occurred overnight and premarket. Stocks were gapping down way too far to not get aggressive! AAPL -10%, semis down an epic ton.
Many were upset by their own performance. What do we do? We objectively assess where our thinking failed us, we learn, and we move on. To help the traders refine their thinking I’m doing a review call w them on Thursday.
It’s so important to voice your fears and your thoughts and put data behind them. What was the EV at each decision point? Did we misread it? How do we prevent that future error?
2. It came up w a few traders, how external pressures led to underperformance. This has also been a major theme for my good mate @austinmitchyblu.
Trading is an incredibly hard profession. Like any performance sport, our psychology matters. You need to do whatever possible to remove as many of those external pressures as possible.
This means ALWAYS living way below your means. This means ALWAYS giving yourself the longest runway to perform. This means NOT giving in to your friends or parents or partner always asking you how your month is going or how you traded.
That also means that on big days, we need to be in a state of flow and zen. Breathwork, meditation, presence, and routine all help on these days.
On the big days I try not to change my routine one bit so that my body and mind know it’s a normal day and to stay focused calm.
How does one build this habit? We build it on the easier slower days. We build it by stashing acorns in the bank account. We build it by asking those around us to focus on process rather than performance!!
3. One of the heuristics I touch on a ton is that our best trades always go right in our favor. One of my favorite SMB traders underperformed. He did fine enough on the big opps. But he fought too much in the lesser opps.
What did he learn when he crunched the data? 100% of his top 10 trades that month went right in his favor! Despite what it seems, that isn’t a useless retrospective tell!
If you find yourself struggling and frustrated in a trade or that a trade ISNT working, almost by definition that means it probably isn’t going to be one of the best trades. It doesn’t mean the idea is wrong, just that in that specific moment it isn’t working like it should.
As we gain experience, we build awareness and consciousness in the moment. We become more able to notice these tells in realtime AND adapt to them!
4. My message to anyone that might have underperformed:
Embrace the hurt! Use it as fuel. Learn from your mistakes.
THEN MOVE THE FUCK ON!
The second you’ve learned all there is to learn for the tuition you paid, it’s time to look forward and execute.
Often traders, even me, focus too much on the perfect performance. We almost never achieve perfect. I had my best trade ever and still kicked myself for not holding better. Instead, learn, focus on where you came from (the gain), and be grateful!
The ups and the downs are what makes this job so special! They suck at times, but here we all are… still identifying and living as traders. Always by choice.
Finally, be cautious! September has been meaningfully slower than past months IMO. If the opps turn off, make sure to cut the risk and involvement way back!
If you made it to the end…
Be well, be grateful friends 🙏🫳🎤
I became a man the day I realized no one was coming to save me
You may have it harder than others
You may be at a disadvantage
May be tired
But guess what?
Nobody gives a fuck
Wipe your tears no one will make this happen for you
It's your responsibility
Succeed
There’s going to be so many millionaires & billionaires created the next few years, retweet this if you promise to study/work your butt off & be one of them! I don’t think people realize how many opportunities there are now due to new technology & widespread education/information
Hi folks, I’m afraid it’s time for me to say goodbye. Not just leaving Twitter, but the whole show. I’ve been battling cancer last 2 years, but now only have a few days left now. Thank you wonderful people, I leave this crazy world with much love in my heart ❤️
I'm going to take these next few days to get my mind back right. Little things have shaken my focus. Not trading again until Monday, mental work until then.
As much as this is terrible to see all these people getting crushed day in and day out -- it's refreshing to see that investing may actually require skill again -- rather than just throwing shit at a wall and hoping it sticks gambling to out perform the market 🙏