Guido Cozzi

Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of St. Gallen.
My academic research focuses on macroeconomics, growth, political economy, innovation, and IPRs.

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

Romania’s pro-EU gov adds 10% health tax on pensions >RON 3,000, calling it “EU-related.”

❌ EU never asked
📉 0.2% GDP (~2.5% deficit)
⚖️ Regressive, hits retirees 👵👴

✅ Ending energy price cap: +2.3% GDP fiscal space.

#Romania #EU #FiscalPolicy

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

“Powell is stupid. Inflation is dead.” — Trump.

Inflation is not dead.... still above 2%.
We all want lower rates — but doing it now is risky.
Ask Volcker how that story ends.

🎥 My interview on Al Jazeera:
https://t.co/amRXgf8ceU
#Fed #Inflation #Trump #Powell #AlJazeera

[Anthem Press @AnthemPress]

Read Now! The leading global political economy index, is a comparative ranking measuring the sustainability of nations that assesses whether elites create value and expand a nation’s knowledge capabilities➡️https://t.co/rO1K6kb3X7 #TomasCasasiKlett @GuidoCozzi #AnthemPress

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

Se chi vota non lavora, perché dovrebbe interessarsi a politiche per il lavoro?

⚠️ Non è un’anomalia. È il riflesso fedele della struttura dell’elettorato.

#lavoro #pensioni #politica #Italia #produttività #elezioni #economia #classemedia

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

🇮🇹 In Italia, chi lavora… non decide.
Su 50,5 milioni di elettori:

👷 Dipendenti non pensionati = 38,6%
👴 Pensionati non lavoratori = 28,7%
👔 Imprenditori veri = 3,2%
🧩 Altri (studenti, disoccupati, ecc.) = ~30%

La politica segue i voti, non il lavoro.

🧵

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

I lavoratori sono tanti, ma frammentati.
I pensionati votano compatti.
Gli imprenditori sono pochi, ma ascoltati.
Gli “altri” (30%) non hanno voce.

➡️ Il risultato?
Una democrazia dove la produttività è retorica, non priorità.

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

Strait of Hormuz paradox:
Iran’s blockade could backfire.

✅ Boosts U.S./U.K. oil
❌ Blocks Iran’s own exports
❌ Hurts Europe & China most

New analysis here:
[link]
#HormuzParadox #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity
https://t.co/JJTz7uxz1B

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

Tariffs replace efficient global producers with costlier domestic ones.
The US is taxing itself.
The EU shouldn't follow — retaliating would only double the inefficiency.
Comparative advantage still wins.

#TradePolicy #Tariffs #EUTrade #Economics #FreeTrade #GlobalValueChains

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

🗳️ Se l'elettorato di destra si mobilita contro la cittadinanza, scatta il quorum anche sui referendum lavoro della CGIL.
⚠️ Se vincono, toccherà al governo riscrivere le leggi.
✍️ Saranno più favorevoli o meno ai lavoratori?
♟️ Strategia o trappola?
#Referendum2025 #lavoro

[Strait Talk @StraitTalkTRT]

As the US and EU escalate their tariff war, global stock markets are feeling the pressure. But could this create an opening for Ankara's economic ties with Europe?

Tune in at 1830 GMT on TRT World: https://t.co/0TsD7xIWbm

[Prof.Dr.GiraySADIK @GirayPhD]

Thanks for hosting us at @StraitTalkTRT @trtworld along with colleagues @GuidoCozzi @humpheryjenner on the economic and geopolitical implications of tariff-wars for EU, NATO, Türkiye... Full-program: https://t.co/XNSJkS79iJ @TRTWorldNow @frkkymkc @LGUMRUKCU @polatsafi_ @SAM_MFA

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

Il mio grandissimo Professore, cui devo tutta la mia passione per l'economia, è volato in cielo... Persona straordinaria e nobile, docente e relatore di Tesi ineguagliabile, non so come ringraziarlo di essere esistito. #InMemoriam #Economia #GiancarloGandolfo

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

"Prof Cozzi says the situation could get "complicated"; if European producers were to lose access to the US market due to tariffs, they might try to shift their excess stock to the UK. In the short term, this could mean lower prices on some goods."

https://t.co/hvOiwGQ0Kk

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

Today I defeated Magnus Carlsen's bot on @chesscom! 🎉♟️
Thank you, AI, for giving us this amazing privilege to learn and grow. A game to remember for a humble hobbyist. 🧠✨

#Chess #AI #MagnusCarlsen

[𝐀𝐯𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐫𝐞 @Avvenire_Nei]

Creiamo una moneta il cui obiettivo è battere la povertà https://t.co/PlU7DPUzpn La proposta di @Leonardobecchet e @GuidoCozzi

[Strait Talk @StraitTalkTRT]

How could Biden’s absence from the G20 photo be interpreted?

@GuidoCozzi suggests that, symbolically, it raises questions about shifting global dynamics, with the US potentially losing influence as groups like BRICS expand.

Watch more here: https://t.co/Cr2Kc7ND6J

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

🤔 Why Trump may be less scary than he seems: a business-focused approach could ease trade tensions. 🔄 Misspoke (‘authorities’ instead of ‘autocracies’)—but the message is clear! 🌍 Stability over ideology could benefit global trade. 📈✨

[Globelynx @Globelynx]

"I think the overall picture of #geopolitics may improve" says @GuidoCozzi of @HSGStGallen as he discusses #China nearing a $1 Trillion #trade surplus amidst potential tensions with President-elect #DonaldTrump.

#GlobelynxConnects #GlobelynxVOD

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

Google searches still favour Trump...

[Guido Cozzi @GuidoCozzi]

Donald Trump has been searched more on Google than Kamala Harris over the past week. 📈 Does this reflect support, curiosity, or something else? 🤔 #Trump #Harris #GoogleTrends