A much-anticipated El Niño that developed this summer is on track to become the strongest ever recorded, with cascading effects on global climate peaking late this year and into next.
The Post is tracking monthly updates to the forecast data here: https://t.co/95pt6vwHKW
$SPY ended the day above the darkpool box but with darkpool prints from yesterday and today (dotted lines) it looks as if a larger ranged box may have formed. It rejected 758 to close right on the call wall at 757 on the 0dte and the call wall on all expiries rolled down to the same level from 760. There was also a nasty sell into the close that took the MOC imbalance more negative than the 10 minute call.
Overall I think tomorrow we come down and test 753.86 again (tomorrow's put wall is at 753). However without a definitive break of that level we appear to be stuck in no-mans land in the range defined by the two dotted levels. In fact we've been stuck in this range since last Thursday. This is starting to look like distribution.
The VIX continues to remain in the falling wedge, but it is running out of room. VIX compression is like a coiling spring, the more it compresses the more energy that will be put into the inevitable spike.
Of note but not pictured the VIX1D ended the day -12.37%, which is a red flag given NFP is tomorrow. It tells me that the market is getting too complacent and not taking the print seriously enough which opens the possibility of a VIX breakout on a bad NFP print tomorrow. If NFP doesn't do it the next opportunity will be PPI/CPI next week, which will almost definitely be red hot.
TLDR: SPY needs above 759.32 for upside continuation, below 753.86 for more downside. Rangebound otherwise. VIX getting close to breakout.
No real surprises here, just a good reference sheet. These are my favorites: $NVDA $TSM $ANET $ANET $SNDK $VRT $TE $NOW $PANW $NNE $ETN $FCX $TSLA $AVAV $ACHR $LUNR $ASTS $QBTS
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