Guts Realism

Interested in everything Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, with a special space for Philosophy and Anime

[Domino Theory @DominoTheoryMag]

NEW: The Taiwanese navy’s new Littoral Combat Command is having its first run out in the annual #HanKuang military exercises. The army is also showing off its capabilities. But more drones are still needed, @JoshuaMWilkes reports
https://t.co/3fppXnFOuy

[Backpirch Weather @BackpirchCrew]

It is absolute chaos in the West Pacific right now.

Typhoon Dolphin making landfall in China; Tropical Storm Chan-hom heading towards mainland Japan; and THREE MORE systems spinning around the Mariana Islands, all at the same time.

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

Shooting reported at Debsirin Nonthaburi School, Bang Kruai, Nonthaburi, Thailand. Per the latest reports, 2 fatalities and at least 20 injured (3 critically injured). The suspect remains inside the school. Police officers have locked down the area and have evacuated staff, students, and teachers. The search for the perpetrator is ongoing.

[CNET Japan @cnet_japan]

中国製ルーター20機種にバックドア、外部から完全制御のおそれ https://t.co/ZP0O1IbAdB

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

Taiwan is probing 17 Chinese firms for allegedly illegally poaching high-tech talent, especially in semiconductors. In the span of almost a month, 330 agents searched 64 locations & questioned 114 people. Companies are accused of disguising themselves as local/foreign firms to recruit Taiwanese experts, threatening the island’s tech edge.

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

1/6
Financial Times: "China has launched a global hunt for hundreds of billions of dollars in unpaid taxes going back decades as Beijing seeks to fill a deepening fiscal hole by targeting the ultra rich."
https://t.co/2SWMuQpxgg

[Teo @Teo_Sinamin]

Announcement of the Ministry of Commerce No. 34 of 2026 announced the strengthening of export control of dual-use items related to unmanned aerial vehicles to the United States

In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Export Control of Dual-use Items and other laws and regulations, in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it was decided to strengthen the export control of dual-use items related to unmanned aerial vehicles to the United States. The relevant matters are hereby announced as follows:

The export of unmanned aerial vehicles and their key parts and related technologies included in the Export Control List of Dual-use Items of the People's Republic of China to the United States shall be strictly audited case by case, and licensing facilities shall not be applied.

Effective immediately.

[Guts Realism @Guts_realism]

Presence is deterrence. Ending the Taiwan Patrol Force in 1969 created the vacuum Beijing has exploited ever since. The new U.S.–Taiwan Coast Guard joint patrol is a smart first step, now make continuous, lawful maritime presence the norm again. Ships at sea beat rhetoric every time.

Shoutout to @milesyu10 for this awesome write-up and all the more baller phrase.

[Hudson Institute @HudsonInstitute]

For the first time, the United States publicly acknowledged that the US Coast Guard and the Taiwan coast guard conducted joint patrols in the Taiwan Strait.

This operation is the first visible step toward restoring the maritime presence that kept peace in the Taiwan Strait for nearly two decades.

Continuous American maritime presence in the strait would complicate Beijing's gray-zone campaign, reassure allies, reinforce international maritime law, and reduce the likelihood that China could gradually normalize coercive control through incremental encroachment, @milesyu10 writes.

Read his latest: https://t.co/OUMa2HUxrg

[國防部 Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan) 🇹🇼 @MoNDefense]

5 sorties of PLA aircraft, 8 PLAN vessels and 2 official ships operating around Taiwan detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 3 out of 5 sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s southwestern part ADIZ. #ROCArmedForces have monitored the situation and responded.

[ChinaPower @ChinaPowerCSIS]

Despite improvements in public health, China still faces a sex ratio at birth of 111 boys for every 100 girls, reflecting lingering effects of the One Child Policy and persistent “son bias.” Read more about China’s demographic imbalance in our feature: https://t.co/i4MBcPrgLT

[Andrew Stokols @astoks]

Following a big week for China's domestic chip ambitions, put together a schematic of China's emerging semiconductor manufacturing hubs: https://t.co/RjRhrjnP8y

[Lyle Goldstein @lylegoldstein]

More coverage of Chinese Maritime Law Enforcement (MLE) or coast guard normalization in the Taiwan Strait as CCG vessels regularize patrols in and around Jinmen (Kinmen), the tiny Taiwan-controlled island just off the Chinese port city of Xiamen. Why is Beijing consistently successful in the "gray zone"?

This seems to be a question that both puzzles and fascinates Western strategists. Let me suggest two very simple answers. 1) China has immense resources to throw at the problem. 2) China cares alot more about this -- including yes tiny Jinmen (Kinmen) -- than we do.

[Oceanner @Oceanworldfree]

The sudden appearance of US Navy's Pathfinder-class oceanographic research vessel USS Henson (T-AGS-63) in waters SW of Taiwan in recent yrs is quite rare. If Bashi Channel were blocked, it would become the only passage for the 3 major fleets of Chinese Navy to assemble.

8E01D4

[TWZ @thewarzonewire]

Will The F-47 Have To Fly Initially With Inferior Engines?

The timelines for a next-gen fighter engine and the F-47 appear out of sync, which could lead to a stop-gap engine, something with historical precedent.
https://t.co/DloKJ49a15

[Guts Realism @Guts_realism]

U.S. and Taiwanese officials revealed this week that a joint exercise was held at an unspecified time between their respective Coast Guard agencies.

https://t.co/o4p1dmMCoY

[IISS News @IISS_org]

Critical raw-material trade flows have become caught up in the broader United States–China trade war. Since August 2023, Beijing has imposed increasingly extensive and stringent export controls on critical minerals, with wide-ranging implications not only for civilian industry but also for defence manufacturing.

Other states have become collateral damage in US–China competition, including South Korea. Its defence industry faces growing risks from potential supply disruptions and price surges in critical minerals. Although Seoul is taking steps to reduce its reliance on Chinese supplies and enhance international cooperation for supply-chain resilience, these measures will take time to bear fruit.

Read the latest analysis by Dr @lamikim and Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau: https://t.co/8pWWUmukhm

[UnveiledChina @Unveiled_ChinaX]

3 key suspects in a massive Chinese espionage ring targeting TSMC and Taiwan's military mysteriously died of illness right before prosecutors could fully unpack the network.

The sudden deaths of Hong Kong operative Ding Xiaohu and two of his top network lieutenants have left critical gaps in tracing Beijing's covert reach.

Before his death, Ding worked under instructions from a Chinese military intelligence unit to recruit Taiwanese officers and funnel over NT$11 million into covert operations.

The spy ring didn't just target military readiness. They recruited Chen Zhi-jian, a former deputy manager at TSMC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, to launch the covert "Blue Ocean Project".

Chen allegedly copied 21 core national technology secrets from TSMC to help build a rival semiconductor firm in mainland China.

Taiwanese authorities managed to recover the stolen files before they crossed the border, and six military officers have since been sentenced to prison terms up to eight years.

While officials cite natural illness, the timing has raised serious concerns about foreign influence operations silencing key figures to protect intelligence assets.

[安田峰俊 @YSD0118]

【スクープ】本日売り週刊ポスト寄稿。
・陸自分屯地で沖縄の平和団体と「自衛隊ミサイル反対」で共闘した中国人団体、設立時の顧問が中国の核ミサイル部隊政治将校（中将）OBと判明
・同平和団体の元共同代表に「沖縄対話プロジェクト」中国側参加者が仲介して党員より資金供与打診未遂
・辺野古の抗議船に身元不明の中国人が乗船した可能性浮上
・中央党校（党のイデオロギー最高学府）系団体が「反西側」「反植民地主義」で同平和団体と複数回接触判明

[Stars and Stripes @starsandstripes]

South Korea is upgrading its F-15K Slam Eagle fighter fleet with the U.S. military’s most advanced electronic warfare system under a contract awarded to BAE Systems.

Read more at: https://t.co/yecRhLMYnE