PaymentsGuy

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@AsimSarode Oh hey, As the boundless moorkh has spoken.

Lets get the cell near Amritpal ready.

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@NPCI_NPCI Body language matters.

Hands covering mouth indicates Disdain and dismissiveness while listening and doubt and concealment while talking.

PayPal CEO is best informed to learn history of PP’s multiple forays into India.

The only thing it has got - its global Merchant network !

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@JDVanceNewsX 👍🏼

[Yo Yo Funny Singh @moronhumor]

Jai Shri Krishna 🙏🏻

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

Plex away !

[GREG ISENBERG @gregisenberg]

DeepSeek just proved the 'worthless' GPT wrapper startups are actually the ones with real moats.

A week ago, nothing was more LOW status than being a 'GPT wrapper' startup.

But I think we're learning that's DEAD wrong. Turns out they were just early to the only game that matters

While DeepSeek, Meta, Anthropic and Microsoft battle over benchmark scores, these 'wrapper' companies have been quietly building the only moat that matters: interface loyalty.

Because of how big owning the LLM is for national defense and the economy, the next breakthrough model is always 2 weeks away. DeepSeek launches today, someone else drops a better one tomorrow.

But getting millions of people to make your product part of their daily workflow - that's the real barrier to entry. ChatGPT didn't win because it had the best model. It won because it was dead simple to use. And I think it has staying power because of that.

This is why all those AI startups we dismissed are actually positioned to win. They're not competing on model performance - they're competing on being the default way humans interact with AI.

Frontier models are becoming commodities. User habits aren't. While everyone obsesses over the next architecture breakthrough, the real game is being played in the interface layer. The moat isn't in the model - it's in being the tool people reach for without thinking.

Technology advantage is temporary. Interface lock-in is forever.

Keep shipping those wrappers, my friends.

[Flightradar24 @flightradar24]

Flight #J28243 that crashed near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan is an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190 with registration 4K-AZ65.

#J28243 took off from Baku at 03:55 UTC time and was flying to Grozny. The aircraft was exposed to strong GPS jamming which made the aircraft transmit bad ADS-B data. At 04:40 UTC we lost the ADS-B signal. At 06:07 UTC we picked up the ADS-B signal again before it crashed at 06:28 UTC.

[Balaji @balajis]

Many Indians have an outdated model of US government agencies as some ideal of disinterested probity.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Americans don’t trust the US government, so Indians sure shouldn’t!

[Balaji @balajis]

Adani is to Indian ports what Elon is to American space. That’s why Indian leftists hate him.

But the left is too weak locally to attack him, so they whistled for backup to US Democrats.

After the Trump admin takes office, let’s see whether this case is still around in a year.

[Balaji @balajis]

Gautam Adani is an Indian magnate.
He’s built ports, roads — everything.
One of the most prominent men in India.
Now comes the Democrat DOJ.
Indicting an Indian doing business in India.
For some ostensible violation of US law!
Why? Adani is perceived as center right.
And Democrats are now far left.
So it’s just lawfare across borders.
Like their attacks on Elon.
And on Israel’s right.
And on European conservatives.
But…I doubt the Trump admin continues it.

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@benaverbook @bariweiss Yean then WTF was he silent at the All-In Summit ?

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@DavidSacks Thank ⚡️ God, somebody finally said this to ‘Mr.🤡Virtue Signaling’R Us’ & Silicon Valley’s Pied Piper’s face.

And his sidekick …Peter Pan … of ClosedAI ?
None too soon… None too soon.

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@sama Two teams, one vision, kinda.

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@protosphinx How not:
Remind us today of $PYPL.
When Cluelessness and Greed trumps Creativity… great brands Die a slow death.

How to:
Great products give you a chance to extend adjacency. $AMZN has done it… forever. Now it is disrupting Retail Medical channels.

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@cb_doge God’s Pandora Box !

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@MikeBenzCyber Pig & lipstick story

[Freda Duan @FredaDuan]

$PYPL Growth Analysis - A value trap or on the cusp of a revival akin to META's post-4Q22 3x surge?

$PYPL Gross Profit (GP) Breakdown - Braintree's Buzz vs. Real Impact on $PYPL:

Post the spotlight from $ADYEN highlighting competitions, Braintree has emerged as a focal point in the market chatter. Despite the buzz, Braintree’s actual contribution to $PYPL's GP remains relatively minimal. Even with a projected ~30% growth, Braintree is only mid-single-digit (MSD) % of $PYPL's GP, contributing just 1-2% to the growth in GP.

h/t Timothy Chiodo (Credit Suisse)

To reach the market consensus’ high-single-digit (HSD) growth in Gross Profit (a metric representing the actual revenue for $PYPL and a standard benchmark in the payment sector), a LOT must happen in $PYPL's favor.

Decomposing Gross Profit Growth at $PYPL:

1⃣Branded Button: ~55% of GP @ 6% GP CAGR
Volume CAGR: ~7-8% CAGR, trailing by 200-300bps behind the e-Commerce industry growth (~10%). $PYPL button has been losing shares & that share loss is likely to sustain.
GP CAGR: ~4-6% CAGR, 300-400bps slower than the volume growth above. $PYPL facing a shift towards larger merchants (over SMBs) and industry-wide pricing pressure.

2⃣Braintree: MSD % of GP @ <30% GP CAGR
Volume CAGR: ~30%, outpacing $ADYEN’s estimated 20-25% CAGR.
GP CAGR: <30% due to pricing pressures.

3⃣Other Merchant Services: ~10% of GP @ 5% GP CAGR
4⃣Other Value-added Services (OVAS): ~15% of GP @ 5% GP CAGR

Putting it all together (can argue most assumptions are NOT that conservative), combined GP growth = ~6%.

$PYPL's current scenario echoes $META's position just 3 quarters ago – an out-of-favor stock trading at record low multiples ($PYPL at a 12x 2024e P/E vs. $META <9x NTM P/E in 4Q22).
Post 4Q22, $META enjoyed a 3x surge, credited to cost reduction, exceeding top-line growth expectations, and harnessing AI. It's enticing to speculate a similar path for $PYPL.

Central Query: What moves can the fresh CEO execute to rejuvenate $PYPL? Can a strategy centered on cutting costs below the gross profit line alone uplift the stock? If not, what can $PYPL do to push gross profit growth to at least HSD?

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@MetaMask New way to lose money on PayPal.. these 🤡never miss a chance to miss the bus all the time everytime.

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@noyesclt Not surprised at all !

Sh*tshow started 5 yrs ago with CHOICE!
B execs hired C players. No A Players since eBay acq. Strategy and Product vacuum.

No Founder-mentality
No Risk-takers, lost to Square/Stripe/fintechs
DEI focus, not bottomline
Overstaffed 3X
CFO resigns,🤡 show

[PaymentsGuy @GuyPayments]

@noyesclt Works backwards -

Hire David Sacks ! Don’t bother with none else ..