Checking in on Bitcoin's power law in GOLD 💰🪙
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This is seriously a historic 'Black Swan' for the BTC/Gold ratio.
Whether we are experiencing a precious metal bubble, soon to pop, or a true transition of the monetary order (a la Ray Dalio), next moves imply huge BTC gains.
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The current quantile is approximately 10^10 (0.0000000001%); illustrated by how far we've dropped below that 1% line. This is how rare and unlikely BTC's price in gold is to far this low - a true outlier.
Either the implied price shoots up to its 50th- 95th level ($200k-300k range) due to gold's current value, OR the ratio lifts off again as gold cools (similar effect) due to rotation into BTC from gold.
It's called holding the world's hardest asset, people.
I DID IT!!! Turned $12 into $100,000 (over 8,300x) by going all-in and doubling my bankroll 16 times in a row on short-term BTC moves - while sharing my bets and the reasoning behind them along the way.
This is only possible on @Polymarket !!!
It took a lot of work and real skin in the game, so if you’re reading this, a simple RT or comment would really mean a lot.
Huge shoutout to @shayne_coplanand @Polymarket team for building the best prediction market platform out there. And special thanks to @zscdao and @PolymarketTrade for the support🤝
Track my progress here: https://t.co/9MOdfR72Nd
@pmarca Double-digit growth is coming within 12 to 18 months.
If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, which it should be, triple-digit is possible in ~5 years.
This box plot version tells a compelling story. 👇
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When PMI drops below 50 (contraction), Bitcoin's median price sits at 1.47x (47%) above power law support.
When PMI rises above 50 (expansion), that median jumps to 2.33x. 🤯
...Not only that, but that median (2.33x) during expansions happens to be the BEST multiple possible during contractions.
This is 26% of Bitcoin's valuation variance explained by ONE macro indicator (R² = 0.26, p < 0.0001).
The distribution is tight during contractions, and currently we're sitting in that box with PMI = 48.2 (most recent value).
The upside possibility explodes once we cross back above PMI = 50. Can you imagine where we'll go?
Don't wait. Stack early. Stack hard.
📊 NOVEMBER 2025 $TAO WALLET DISTRIBUTION
The Month Before Halving: Distribution Explodes 🔥
195,428 wallets (+6.16%)
- Another record month.
Whales accumulating. Retail surging.
It takes 13.33 $TAO to be in the top 10% of holders, in November.
Props to @RBS_HODL for tracking this religiously 🙏 give a Follow.
Data Doesn't Lie
November added +11,348 wallets in 30 days.
That's 378 new wallets DAILY.
While price consolidated from $498 to $291 and lower.
This isn't FOMO. This is positioning.
Whale Activity Finally Moves
>100k TAO: 10 → 11 wallets (+10%)
>50k TAO: 21 → 26 wallets (+23.81%)
After 2 months flat, whales woke up.
$5M+ positions being built.
Days before halving.
They know.
Mid-Tier Compression
>10k TAO: 172 → 160 (-6.98%)
>1k TAO: 977 → 976 (flat)
The 10k tier dropped but 50k grew.
Consolidation upward.
Smart money isn't selling
- they're STACKING.
Retail Explosion
>100 TAO: 5,581 → 5,672 (+1.63%)
>10 TAO: 22,642 → 23,118 (+2.10%)
>1 TAO: 49,559 → 50,720 (+2.34%)
>0.1 TAO: 71,099 → 73,041 (+2.73%)
Every retail tier growing.
Consistent. Organic. Real.
Compare to Other L1s:
Solana:
- Top 10 wallets: 20%+ of supply
- VC unlocks ongoing
- Retail = exit liquidity
Avalanche:
- Top 10 wallets: 15%+ of supply
- Foundation controls billions
- Centralized validators
$TAO:
- Top 11 wallets: <1% of supply
- No VC unlocks
- 195,428 real participants
- Most decentralized
October vs November Growth:
Oct: +14,856 wallets (+8.78%)
Nov: +11,348 wallets (+6.16%)
Growth "slowing"? No.
This is SUSTAINABLE expansion.
Not pump metrics.
Real adoption.
Year-Over-Year is INSANE:
>100k TAO: +57.14% YoY
>1k TAO: +33.70% YoY
>100 TAO: +40.99% YoY
>1 TAO: +57.30% YoY
Every tier growing double digits.
In a bear market.
While others bleeding users.
Distribution Quality Check:
50,720 wallets hold >1 TAO (25.95% of all wallets)
23,118 wallets hold >10 TAO (11.83%)
5,672 wallets hold >100 TAO (2.90%)
976 wallets hold >1k TAO (0.50%)
This is textbook healthy distribution.
No concentration risk.
No whale dominance.
Just 195k participants building.
Why post this NOW:
December 14: Halving hits
Emissions: 1 $TAO → 0.5 $TAO per block
Daily supply: -50%
195,428 wallets competing for half the emissions
Supply shock mathematics:
- Before: 7200 $TAO/day emissions
- Post-halving: 3600 $TAO/day
- 195k wallets wanting $TAO
- = 0.0018 $TAO per wallet daily
There isn't enough $TAO.
Early Signs of Something Big?
✅ Record wallet growth pre-halving
✅ Whales finally accumulating
✅ No retail capitulation despite price
✅ Most equitable distribution in crypto
✅ 128 working subnets need $TAO
Other L1s at similar market cap:
- Controlled by 10-20 entities
- 60%+ supply locked by VCs
- Fake decentralization metrics
$TAO:
- 195,428 real participants
- No entity owns >2%
- Working product (not promises)
- Halving is in Already
December Will Be Historic:
We're watching live:
- The most decentralized System
- Cut emissions by 50%
- While adoption accelerates
- And subnets generate real revenue
No other network has done this.
Bitcoin Participants at halving: was 10k-20k wallets/nodes,
$TAO close to 200K.
With 195k participants ready.
📊 November 30, 2025 Final Stats:
• Total wallets: 195,428 (+6.16%)
• Monthly growth: +11,348 wallets
• Daily average: 378 new wallets
• Top 10%: 13.33 $TAO required
• >100k TAO: 11 wallets (0.01%)
• >1 TAO: 50,720 wallets (25.95%)
December brings the halving.
January brings the supply shock.
2026 brings price discovery.
But November?
November proved the army is ready.
195,428 soldiers.
1 mission.
Decentralized intelligence wins. 🧠⚡
$TAO
Jay Powell will cut in September.
80 days from now.
It will be very similar to Gary Gensler approving the ETF.
After that point, he will be irrelevant. The next guy will lower interest rates to 1%.
Powell will be remembered as the person who thought "inflation was transitory", cut 50bp to try to get Kamala elected, and then refused to cut even though he claimed to be "data driven".
Worst Fed chair in history.
Worst SEC chair in history.
Demonstration that the Fed is completely obsolete.
A) AI growing to a $30 trillion market and decentralized AI (which $TAO is the leader of) will be a significant % of that.
B) $TAO has a very limited supply of tokens and is the clear leader in AI.
C) $SNPX trades for less than the $TAO we are going to buy. If face, trades for 1/2 the cash in the bank
D) $TAO trades for 1% the valuation of an OpenAI, despite having more access to GPUs and more innovation in their "subnets".
$TAO Sturdy isn’t just building a bridge, they are building a cash flow machine for Sturdy holders. Every time someone will move assets between $ETH, $SOL, and $TAO, a small fee goes to Sturdy. But that’s just one layer, there is more. The bridged assets (like USDC) don’t sit idle they’re actually deployed into yield strategies earning around 5% annually. On top of that, TaoFi swaps charge fees, and if Sturdy provides liquidity, it earns a share. Then there’s its lending platform, where Sturdy already takes a cut of the interest borrowers pay. It’s a beautifully designed system, just that most sleep on it, but not for long, get ready for some parabolic moves 🚀
Root wants in, zero doubt, but I think they will pay a premium for it, and that is just fine and how the cookie crumbles. $TAO
🧵👇🏾
I see investing in Alpha the same way as pre-seed, seed, series A,B C, etc....
BitTensor TAO is a fascinating experiment in training and rewarding the long tail of AI.
On February 13, the protocol implemented staked tokens for each "alpha" subnet. The market cap of these alpha subnets was $50 Million for a month, then jumped to $200 Million, and just over the last 48 hours jumped to $329 Million.
I would wager that these subnet tokens will eventually (and not very long from now) hit 1 Billion. My new project which will be revealed in 6 days will allow you to get exposure to that thesis.
We also created our own subset at 7:30am PST:
Subnet 90.
Brain.
More on this one after the reveal. If in LA, stop by our launch party.
Here is a five step guide for dTAO tomorrow.
Step 1 - DELEGATE TO ROOT. Your TAO will be safe and you will benefit from the success of all subnets. You will earn a safe APY. Choose a quality validator like RoundTable21, MUV or Rizzo and you will automatically be staked to root on Thursday.
Step 2 - DO NOT APE. DO NOT APE. DO NOT APE. If you want to buy alpha tokens, BUY THEM OVER TIME. Choose the subnets you would like to invest in and buy them over MULTIPLE MONTHS (not just days, or even weeks). If you buy too much in the first few weeks, root stakers will take all your TAO. Slippage is extremely aggressive based on starting price.
Step 3 - Watch the subnet owners and miners. Are they selling in the first few months? If the subnet owner or miners are selling too aggressively you are their liquidity. If subnet owners and/or miners are buying, this is a confidence signal.
Step 4 - Prepare for memecoin subnets. Subnets that do nothing (except marketing charts/candles) are an inevitable evolution of a market based distributed system (ex DOGEnet). These will all likely pump/dump over the next few months. Long term, if you invest in these, you will likely lose all your TAO. Choose subnets that can produce long term value and have monetizable outputs.
Step 5 - Prepare for volatility. DO NOT FOMO and do not chase alpha pumps. Root stakers will keep a constant sell pressure on all alphas (beyond subnet owners and miners). EMA may also change over time, and only increase volatility.
Remember, dTAO is a pure market based system to rank subnet value/emissions. By holding TAO and delegating to root you benefit from the success of the entire ecosystem and carry zero dTAO market risk.
Lets fucking gooo.
Bittensor TAO - Full Miner Course
🔓💰⛏️
This long-awaited course is finally here, and FREE!
We dive into mining #bittensor $TAO. A full course going over every single step of the setup.
Could not be more pleased to announce we've closed a $1.5M funding round led by Blue Exotic Capital Partners.
Founder protip: find investment teams that actually use your product...makes the process go much smoother!
Full news release below:
https://t.co/NNp7VEyXgt
Watching Redbelly Network here. Chart looks pretty bottomed out here, might see a reversal. Its an RWA focused project thats purpose built and regulatory compliant.
$RBNT should see a good run once the RWA narrative heats up again. Also heard token farmers fully distributed, so most selling pressure is gone.
〽️CMC:
https://t.co/UUF28uZC0K
#DYOR #RWA