Haakon Arctander

Technology | Stocks | Technical Analysis

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

$IREN: Chart's telling a story: long, stubborn trendline finally cracked. Beautiful, isn't it?

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

$IREN – Unfortunately, what began as a potential Head & Shoulders has now fully developed into a completed top. The pattern aligns remarkably well with the classic John J. Murphy criteria:

• A prior uptrend
• A left shoulder formed on heavier volume (point A), followed by a corrective dip to point B
• A rally to new highs on lighter volume (point C – the head)
• A decline that slips below the previous peak at A and approaches the prior low at point D
• A third rally (point E – the right shoulder) on noticeably lighter volume that fails to reach the head high at C
• A decisive break below the neckline — the final confirmation that completes the pattern

What’s the technical price objective?

It’s the vertical distance from the head (point C) down to the neckline, projected downward from the breakout point. That measured move targets around $32 — which also coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. The stock already found support there in both December ’25 and April ’26. Strong confluence.

From here, two main paths stand out:

• Price reaches the $32 zone, forms a triple bottom, and reverses higher, or
• The stock fights its way back above the 0.5 Fib level (~$41) and carves out a higher low on the higher time frame.

What are your thoughts?

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

Many of you know me from $IREN coverage, and having the OnlyFrans community behind my subscription button.

This may look like a straight-up paywall, but it's actually a platform where people are contributing not just $10 per month for new material, but also share research work, financial models, footage from events, meetups, and sometimes community members stumble upon alpha, that the OF'ers hear about first.

Today, I want to divert the spotlight to some of the brightest minds behind the OnlyFrans community:

@tykonu - possibly one of the best sleuths on this platform, responsible for finding Fireworks AMD cluster, and Baseten as customer.

@ShiftyUk59 - another sleuth, who is able to turn AI into alpha-scrapers, responsible for finding $NVDA HGX B300 exemplar validation.

@jiahanjimliu - needs no introduction, simply one of the brightest people you will encounter on X.

@Mining4Answers - has done extensive work on permitting, and new site discoveries.

@HArctander - incredibly strong with image enhancing, provides valuable TA.

There are a lot more interesting people that help build the community, attend events on behalf of OF, do site drive-by's, or simply provide emotional support during tough times.

This post is both a thank you to all of them, as well as an invitation to come join us.

We have a Discord, a community X group, and much more.

Being early is not always easy, but it gets a lot easier with like minded people doing research, and sharing ideas and theories.

https://t.co/22ST2YnWbf

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

As discussed in the Fib guide, the 0.786 level at 61.51 has been acting as strong resistance. Price has tested it multiple times recently and got rejected each time.

Meanwhile, price has been making higher lows. This creates a simple pattern with a rising floor and a flat ceiling at 61.51. You can call it an ascending triangle, or just a consolidation with a rising bottom.

The pattern is getting mature, so it should break one way or the other soon. Right now there are two main possibilities:

Price pulls back toward the rising trendline first (somewhere in the mid-50s), or we get a clean break above 61.51 with decent volume.

RSI has cooled off since the last attempts, which is a small positive.

This is just how I’m reading the chart at the moment. Feel free to share your thoughts.

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

https://t.co/j3UfFF5oED

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

So many bad takes on IREN floating around lately. Back in ‘24, when people were skeptical about the AI pivot — fair enough. It was new territory, and a lot of people just couldn’t see the bigger picture yet.

But now? After everything that’s been achieved? The amount of noise out there is kind of wild.

Strategic partnership with NVIDIA.
Cloud services for NVIDIA.
5GW of next-generation AI infrastructure.
Flagship deployment for NVIDIA’s DSX architecture in Sweetwater.

And Jensen himself literally said:
“IREN brings the scale and infrastructure expertise to help accelerate the buildout of next-generation AI infrastructure globally. Together, we are building for the age of AI.”

At some point, the story becomes pretty straightforward.

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

$IREN Sweetwater 1 HD - 3/12/2026

Made possible by OnlyFrans, edited and upscaled by @HArctander

Lots of developments on both tracts:
1. Confirmed 2nd primary substation on the left tract, making the total confirmed 3.
2. Data Center rows are visible on the right of PS1.
3. Visible bulk substation transformer on the most right pad, possibly a transformer on one of the pads at PS1.
4. Mass grading on the left tract, indicating further development of the site towards adjecent parcels on the north and west.
5. Utility substation expansion now connected to the main switch, suspected POI for IREN's energization in Q2.
6. Suspected further build-out of primary substations on the left tract, south of the first two, confirmed by drone footage posted by a subcontractor.

My considerations:
-> IREN is making a site that is a blank slate for mass production of data center shells.
-> The area right of PS1 is showing indications of rows, underground conduits, and this area will soon be ready for data center construction.
-> The fact that there is 1 bulk substation transformer visible on the most right transformer pad, makes me certain that energization is not far out.
-> I expect 750MW of gross power at the 36.5kV level (DC ready), to be flowing by the end of the year (incremental over the course of the year).
-> Based on the concentration of the substations on the left tract (possibly 3 or 4), we could see the entire 1,400MW become operational on these 2 tracts.
-> This further strengthens the believe that this will be a VR200/VR300 site, with a much smaller data center footprint due to a massive jump in rack density.

Now as to "wen deal":
I think @IREN_Ltd is making a site that can still pivot in either direction of Build-to-suit, colocation, or AI Cloud/IaaS.
By doing all the step-down work first, but preparing multiple data center areas down to the 34.5kV level — the ultimate use-case doesn't need to be set in stone yet.

I think this site will have a slow ramp up, but when the use-case is determined, all the moving parts will be in place, and the construction will be "released" as a coil spring into mass data center development, on multiple areas across the site in parallel.

Time to data center = Time to revenue
There are no delays when you do all the pre-work for 1,400MW of data centers, making the eventual construction a simplified copy-paste task at an unprecedented scale and pace.

Sweetwater is the flagship and will be the holy grail of AI infrastructure in 2027/2028.

Patience is a virtue, take the time to learn and know what you own.

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

$IREN Sweetwater 1 HD 2/15/2026

~Made possibly by OnlyFrans™️

1. A grand total of 3 primary substations are identified with an expected 750MW of gross and 450MW of IT load to be available at 36.5kV.
2. Two of these have transformers available in Texas, but currently not visible on-site. This would mean 500MW of gross capacity could be energized in H1 2026 at 36.5kV.
3. IREN is grading land for mass construction of a new data center design on both sides of the FM611. The site will be ready for actual structural works by April.
4. All of this will depend on manpower. Will they be able to pull 2-3k bodies to this site? The last information I got says they are confident that Abilene will help them fill the open roles soon, and the contractors are eager to work at Sweetwater 1.
5. The utility substation is being expanded. The switch without this upgrade could transport as much as 3GW. with a 25% increase in footprint, could Lone Star be adding 1.5GW of hardware?

@IREN_Ltd's flagship site is taking shape. We are taking notes. More to come.

Edited and upscaled by @HArctander

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

$BTC This is getting very interesting...

[Frans Bakker @FransBakker9812]

$IREN Childress 1/9/2026 HD

Sometimes, we share our OF content with the public. Please enjoy this satellite image from last Friday.

We can clearly see the first concrete slab of Horizon 3 being poured. We can also see the earthworks of Horizon 4 being prepared.

We think they are ahead of schedule. Delivery of Horizon 4 could be done months earlier if this pace keeps up. What does this mean for Sweetwater 1, without the high demands from $MSFT?

Enjoy the picture, and let me know what you see 🔬
Made possibly by OnlyFrans™️
Edited and upscaled by @HArctander

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

@Umbisam “…just enjoy the ride guys, thats all I got to say” - Cat $IREN

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

@Real_Crypto_Mil When you draw your trendline from the wick of the 27th it gets a little steeper, rejected right there for now. But it really wants to go…

[Haakon Arctander @HArctander]

@GeoMetric_9 That’s an interesting chart, thank you!