Husnu C. Dalgic

Macroeconomist at Uni Mannheim | @NUEconomics @TSEinfo @Bogazici_Econ

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

In our paper, we argue that pure panic narrative of a financial crisis depends crucially on the nonexistence of outside capital. If people know that the run is due to pure panic, outside investors have a huge incentive to invest and make tons of money.
https://t.co/wzPGJlAS3c

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@aledinola @maxgoedl More than that, you can build a microfounded HANK model where fiscal policy effectiveness depend on how it is financed, temporary or permanent, who was targeted etc. whereas in PK it's just some number

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@maxgoedl Then you are raising permanent income of the HH. If you give him Z_t such that EZ_{t+1}=0, then MPC will be tiny

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@maxgoedl Well again Euler based consumption function would give you tiny MPC , you'd either need 'rule of thumb' or H2M people

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@maxgoedl Maybe they should ask a German business with a large supply chain whether they want to deal with 6+ currencies

[International and Monetary Economics Network @int_mon_econ]

Food for thought!

"Dominant Currency Pricing and Currency Risk Premia" by Husnu C. Dalgic and Galip Kemal Ozhan.

"This paper studies how dominant-currency pricing affects currency risk premia. Empirically, we extract common risk factors from excess currency returns using principal components and relate countries’ factor exposures to observable macroeconomic characteristics, with export dollar invoicing emerging as a predictor of carry-trade exposure. A small open-economy model with dominant-currency pricing and dollar-denominated liabilities explains why. Dollar export invoicing weakens the exchange rate’s stabilizing effect on external demand, while dollar debt makes depreciation costly for leveraged intermediaries. When the two frictions interact, depreciations occur in bad states, local-currency assets become risky, the currency premium rises, and the risk-adjusted neutral rate increases. Under a standard Taylor rule, this mechanism generates persistently higher inflation."

https://t.co/JRPTZhQShe

[G. Kemal Ozhan @galipkemal]

Looking forward to @HCD342 presenting our paper, “Dominant Currency Pricing and Currency Risk Premia,” in the Dominant Currencies Session. Comments and feedback are warmly welcome!

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@AbdouNdiayeNYU Maşallah, Allah analı babalı büyütsün, ismi gibi olsun

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

Our new paper online 👇🏽

[Sena Coskun @SenaCoskun11]

New working paper: "Navigating Motherhood: Endogenous Penalties and Career Choice" joint with Husnu Dalgic(@HCD342 ) and Yasemin Ozdemir.

We study the link between job sorting, fertility and motherhood type, using Dutch administrative data.
https://t.co/cmtyAmQpoe

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@maxgoedl It requires a stable democracy. You'd build these institutions in 20 years and all it takes is one populist to demolish in one term

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@maxgoedl @VARulle This is how I derive GDP equation in class,

GDP = C^d + I^d + G^d +X^d
C = C^d + C^m (...)
GDP = C + I + G + X - (C^m + I^m + G^m + X^m)
GDP = C + I + G + X - M

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

Cool paper from my coauthor 👇🏼

[Santiago Camara Restuccia @EconSanti]

I'm thrilled to see this tweet! I learned a lot from comments by the editor and the referees.

It all started with me knocking on the door of @gprimice to tell him "I think I have a good idea".

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@maxgoedl Obvious policy implication

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

I find this sentence from the abstract highly problematic
"infrastructure spending can raise support for autocracy"

People like infrastructure and certainly it can also raise support for democracy. If anything, it should tempt politicians to invest more in housing and roads

[AEA Journals @AEAjournals]

Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Highway to Hitler" by Nico Voigtländer and Hans-Joachim Voth. https://t.co/tjssD20fGx

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@gp_mihalache "Giving people money makes them happy" Wow!

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@dandolfa There could be an argument that chronic trade deficits are bad and need to be addressed but trying to close bilateral deficits with every single country is just nuts.

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@doruukkurt Enflasyon sorunu yok ülkede, yaşam masrafları (gıda ve barınma) yapısal sorunlar yüzünden çok pahalı

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@alz_zyd_ Take a step further, make this claim contingent on parents helping with grandchildren

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@alz_zyd_ Some people basically worked for 25 years and drew pension for 35

Some people kept working on the side while drawing pension

Governments can't decrease pensions because they are persistent voters and they have nothing to do at home so they protest

[Husnu C. Dalgic @HCD342]

@alz_zyd_ His timing was right too. With photography, I imagine old styles lost some of their appeal