Bill Tracy

Eco-minded retired chem. engineer and vocal concerned citizen on energy and environmental matters, flying safety (MH370), and more recently JFK.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

AI#171: "Carly Simon" Moment for Aviation?
Anticipation is her song. Air India final report soon. However, public shrugs off pilot-deliberate crashes, perhaps now the No. 1 problem. Wake-up call last week was ChinaEastern MU5735's incredible FOIA disclosure from the U.S. NTSB after a Chinese citizen requested it. OK, one person on the planet is NOT in denial.
EgyptAir990, China Eastern, Air India (probable), Alaskan Air (2023 attempted) all featured fuel cut-off. In the non-Western world, all vehemently denied for cultural reasons.
That list does not count GermanWings, SilkAir185, Malaysian MH370 and other cases, where pilots apparently figured other creative ways to end it all, such as nose dive, aircraft depressurization, and flying towards the South Pole (we aren't sure yet if he was heading for the Geographic South Pole or the Magnetic South Pole -- but I disgress).
Is anybody listening? Song is here, sad pics below https://t.co/3zTe4xUNGm

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

MH370: Geoffrey Thomas Analysis - My Take
Basically I am/was aligned on MH370 "in general" with Geoffrey Thomas (and Richard Godfrey), therefore I am very sorry to lose an important ally. Condolences of course to the family.

Basically we all believed, a somewhat less popular view, of an active-deliberate pilot possibly with maneuvers to the end. Unfortunately, the more popular main-stream approach, and dare I say ATSB approach, was to "go easy" on the pilot blame and aviation industry sensitivities. Thus a ghost flight variation ending on Arc7 is what the public was told was the most likely scenario. (Politically-correct scenario would perhaps be a better descriptor as far as I am concerned).

But nonetheless I was estranged from Geoffrey/RGodfrey because I was not a WSPR believer, and also I was of a completely different view on Air India 171 and TWA800. Interestingly, re: TWA800, Richard Godfrey's latest IAI podcast takes a completely different view on TWA800, conforming to the NTSB's fuel tank explosion likely cause. Geoffrey just missed TWA800's 30th anniversary next month.

WSPR I think (does not work) but fulfills a need people have on MH370, rather than being a mind reader/accuser of pilot criminal intent, to instead have an impartial referee (radar trace) of where the aircraft went. I personally believe the pilot's home simulator data is the ignored flight-path evidence we need, but since that requires assuming pilot guilt, that approach is disliked and is also contradictory to many popular social-media opinions of possible ghost-flight crash site locations.

Ironically, the WSPR flight path is probably the closest "guess" to where MH370 actually crossed Arc7, somewhat similar to the pilot's home simulator cases. But in that region, due to curvature of Arc7, there is probably residual fuel to fly further and to fly on maybe 100-200+nm beyond Arc7. Let's face it, the data overall does suggest that a crash site somewhere out on the Broken Ridge could have been in the pilot's plans.

I do not see any current interest in searching out there, with the possible exception of a short search near the intersection of Arc7 and Broken Ridge comprising a little more area than OI already searched that spot in 2018. That would at least be something.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

@AustinJamesCoo1 I hope MH370 is found in your lifetime Austin, I do not expect it to be found in mine. It's too sensitive to blame pilot/aviation weakness areas, so we refuse to look where the data says it probably went.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

MH370: RIP Geoffrey Thomas
Sad news Geof Thomas, a major voice of MH370, has died. Geoffrey was long convinced MH370 was a pilot-deliberate accident, in part due to input he had from Malaysia. Later yrs he promoted the questionable WSPR theory.
https://t.co/yYsH2hMjVR

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

@AustinJamesCoo1 Yes...people were starting to worry, because last week he returned to YouTube for 2 episodes after an illness absence and indicated he would re-start regular updates, but then silence. Geoffrey was 75 and I can tell you we are more vulnerable.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

Re: Dark Matter Found? News from Anton.
Newton's Laws found working at intergalactic distances; MOND theory poss dead. But! a Steven Hawking teeny tiny Primordial Black Hole light lens seen in our nearby Large Magellanic Cloud. "Phoebe" ~1mm size.
https://t.co/IvKWLZgmET

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

Air India #171 Report Delay?
More choruses of "Carly Simon's" song Anticipation?
Looks like AAIB may unexpectedly delay AI171 report, presumably bowing to India public outrage that the report will not be acceptable if pilot deliberate suggested.
Apparently we might get an "interim" report that does not require review/agreement of everyone (FAA/NTSB, etc).
https://t.co/m1wS09AwnF

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

@elizanow1 @Ventus_45 So far so good...we are only just over 0.500 win/loss record but we have best offense in BBall. Maybe send us some pitchers.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

OZ Nat hits Home Run to OZ Fan
Wild! we got a new man on our team Curtis Mead from Adelaide doing well, hits Home Run yesterday in Cleveland, Australia Fan sitting in outfield bare-hands the BBall. To my OZ MH370ists @Ventus_45 @elizanow1 any more Oz?
https://t.co/75yyxsco0C

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

The old joke probably applies: "The vodka is strong, but the meat is rotten" an AI mistranslation of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak". In the MH370 context, the spirit is willing to conduct massive searches, but the flesh is weak as far as realistic assessment of where to look and why. We are looking in the wrong places, based on a ridiculous hope of a ghost flight variation, and claiming high chance of success. Even if we made the correct assumptions, which we as a whole vehemently refuse to do, the crash could be impossible to find, and that should have always been the communication. But in the course of human events, over-optimism is often needed to get the (search) ball rolling.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

MH370: Post-Audit Phase
As we enter a retrospective period, NoK Naren comments from March_2026 are being discussed. Until now, despite world-class foot-dragging by Malaysia, there was always prospect of a search. Now less hope. P1/2
https://t.co/ZUGv8zbAtJ

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

@shellenberger Um, well, the 70-80's was period where oil was thought to be running out and oil industry had enormous synthetic fuels efforts. I was chem engineer in R&D and exempt from jury duty due to critical skills. Now I am planet destroyer, they say.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

@Ventus_45 @elizanow1 ...conceivable Washington Nationals now have 2 Aussies. I need to check up on it. I didn't know we had any until yesterday.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

@Rainmaker1973 Where do I get one? Some kind of fancy set-up getting picture from bottom side

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

Truth is, I had thought the 2025/26 search's unspoken concept was give Ocean Infinity a level, "practical" place to search so OI could show their "lawn mowing" capabilities. Also Malaysia would have to be comfortable that it was not a serious search for the crash.
I had a joke with Blaine Gibson that Malaysia's old rule was "no search unless we know where the plane is" and he new rule is "no search if we do know where the plane is". Blaine and I have many differences of opinion, but we both feel the plane is probably in the Broken Rudge area. Thus we both felt the 2026 search was unlikely to find the aircraft unless there was a continuous effort at new locations besides 34s.
Blaine was a huge supporter of OI and further searching, even if he had to sacrifice his and Chari's accomplishment of finding so much MH370 debris based on a Broken Ridge crash site hypothesis. I was a bit less supportive of a perfunctory OI search in the wrong places, to put it mildly.
Broken Ridge graphic below courtesy Mike Chillit from Aug_2014 apparently from the SIO seafloor mapping phase before the first ATSB MH370 search.

[Bill Tracy @HDTBill]

MH370 Analysis:
Why was the 2026 Ocean Infinity (OI) Search a Bust?
(These 5 reasons are speculation, but I can do that)

1. Search was a Publicity Stunt? If so, the search succeeded beyond OI's wildest expectations, before it even got started. Mass media was touting near 100% chance of finding MH370 with OI's advanced use of AI for defining crash location and also the AUV's have Search-AI. Let's call it OI_AI. I called it BS (at least re: crash location).

2. Lost Shaker of Salt (AUV/ROV)? Long timers will recall OI lost an underwater search vehicle south of 34s in 2018, and spent some time then trying to find it. I can't recall if they ever found it? Is that why OI wanted to continue searching at 34s all these years? Just to find a lost multi-million$ ROV?

3. New Armada Boats not up to the SIO Task? The Seabed Constructor of 2018 was a capable, large, rental mother ship vessel. Ocean Infinity's new Armada ships are smaller, carry less AUV's, and perhaps were found to be non-ideal for the rough and tumble remote SIO search area.

4. Lack of Cooperation from Malaysia? It has been observed, and it is probably true, that Malaysia currently does not support finding MH370. Keep in mind, the whole motive for the aircraft disappearance may have been political: an Anti_PM_Razak protest in favor of the then jailed Anwar Ibrahim, who is the current Malaysia PM (you just can't make this stuff up). So, are we really expecting Anwar to support finding an aircraft his compatriot scuttled on his behalf? Parenthetically, I do feel we fail to appreciate that PM Razak tried to help find the plane from 2014 until 2018. Since Mahathir's rule starting mid-2018, the MH370 search has been effectively dead.

5. Lack of Confidence in Ghost Flight Scenarios? Ocean Infinity has no smarts for figuring out where a rogue Boeing 777 may have flown. That type of estimate would undoubtedly need FBI/CIA criminal behavior logic. Lacking FBI involvement, aviation experts instead recommended a Wishful-Thinking approach, of not "unfairly" blaming pilot/design of a nefarious flight to e.g.; a Broken Ridge hiding spot. I am not a betting man, but I betcha $100 bucks the crash is in fact in the Broken Ridge, which is ruled out for searching, despite that's where the pilot's home sim cases, and Inmarsat BTO/BFO, and Prof Chari's debris drift calcs seem to say, that's where it probably flew.

At this point I am hearing no bona fide interest in future searching from Ocean Infinity. Which is weird because OI had been pushing for more searching since the end of the 2018 search. Over the last 8-years Malaysia dragged its feet and finally lost the interest of Ocean Infinity. Which if you follow my logic above, why is anyone expecting post-Razak Malaysia to support finding MH370?

I also feel the 2018/2019 Boeing 737MAX fiasco may have played a role in aviation folks being less open to intellectual honesty about what happened to MH370, in the interest of protecting the aviation industry from further public criticism and pressure-a noble objective: right?