As The Deer

Taiwan 🇹🇼 + Canada 🇨🇦

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

Solar minimum: Apr-2020; maximum 2025; coincides with inflation and commodity prices

Source: SpaceWeatherLive

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

There are overlapping windows
Ex:
2008-2011 both are bears
2019-now both are bulls

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Here is the idea, and once you see it you cannot unsee it.

Equities, bonds and commodities move together on a 30-to-40-year cycle, and the major turning points are linked. Strategically, equities and commodities are negatively correlated — a secular bull market in commodities is bullish inflation, which is bearish bonds, and it is inflation that sooner or later kills every bull market in equities. So these three great asset classes take turns. When commodities lead, they poison the ground financial assets grow in. When commodities sleep, financial assets feast. They do not thrive together, and they never have.

Chart 6 — The 110-year dance: S&P 500 vs CRB commodities

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto?

Not AI stocks.
Not real estate.

What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with?

Bonds.

200 years of rate cycles say the same thing:
Every peak lasts 56–67 years.
The 1981 top was 14% yields.
The 2020 bottom was 0%.

39 years of falling rates just ended.

What if we're now at the start of the next 50-year cycle — upward?

Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world.
Their entire career happened inside the bull.

The unwind has barely started.
And no one is talking about it.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto?

Not AI stocks.
Not real estate.

What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with?

Bonds.

200 years of rate cycles say the same thing:
Every peak lasts 56–67 years.
The 1981 top was 14% yields.
The 2020 bottom was 0%.

39 years of falling rates just ended.

What if we're now at the start of the next 50-year cycle — upward?

Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world.
Their entire career happened inside the bull.

The unwind has barely started.
And no one is talking about it.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

@LukeGromen with current situation: if any sellers who are willing to accept CNY for oils, why would those middle eastern countries request USD currency swap but not CNY?

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

@LukeGromen Luke Gorman is one of those economists who wants to understand China so badly but only gets intel from those who are heavily influenced/infiltrated by CCP. Too bad he can't understand Chinese who truely knows China.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

@JayMartinBC @LukeGromen Luke Gorman thinks he knows China but he doesn’t.

[Jérémie Boyer @jeremie0117]

Canadian Oil & Gas
Nice stuff from NBF.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

Coupled with ISM Manufacture PMI finally came above 50 ( 52.6) Jan-2026, rotating to cyclical confirms.

[Sykodelic 🔪 @Sykodelic_]

I would not ignore this.

There are rumblings that the ISM data being released tomorrow is going to come in above 50, with some estimates even over 51.

If that happens, it is very significant.

Here we have:
- Bitcoin
- Copper/Gold
- ISM/PMI

For those who are unaware, the ISM reading is essentially whether the economy is in contraction or expansion based on manufacturing. A reading of under 50 is contraction, and over 50 is expansion.

You can see here very clearly, every single time since Bitcoins inception, when ISM has pushed back towards the 52 level after being in contraction(under 50), it has marked that:

1. The Bottom is in for COPPER/GOLD
2. Bitcoin has begun its true expansion phase

You will notice that the PMI reading has been in by far its longest contraction ever, and this is a key piece of data that explains why this bull cycle has been so different.

It is the first time ever that Bitcoin has made new highs whilst the PMI has been in contraction.

It explains why this bull cycle has been so weak because the foundational state of the economy/liquidity has not been there to support it.

Its not a coincidence, by any means.

In addition, this is all happening as GOLD has very likely finished its mega run, meaning COPPER/GOLD is very likely bottomed, with COPPER pushing, in line with high manufacturing and development business happening...

Contributing towards the increasing PMI.

Just as Bitcoin is approaching its invalidation levels for HTF structure break, and almost everyone has now succumb to a year long bear market.

All of this is linked together and telling us the same story.

If PMI comes in close to 52 tomorrow, I expect this to be a market shock and begin the reversal phase throughout Feb.

This is data that truly matters.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

@mrsunshinebaby growth is supported by "quality immigrants"! Not by people who only know how to profit from flipping houses and those refugees who live on social welfare.

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

If you expect oil to stay below $200/barrel for the next 5-8 years, you're ignoring 150 years of evidence 👇

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

@MarkJCarney It's a really bad timing to kiss Xi's ass. Look what happened to those who shake Xi's hand in recent one year.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

@HustleBitch_ a doomed economy plus another won't make a boom. What a pathetic strategic error move.

[Crypto Tice @CryptoTice_]

I'LL BE BLUNT

Bitcoin has never set a real ATH while ISM PMI was below 50.

Not once.

Right now?
This entire cycle has lived under 50.

Historically that means:
– Economic contraction
– Liquidity building, not peaking
– Risk assets in accumulation, not distribution

That’s why this matters:
PMI < 50 has always been a buying window, not a cycle top.

So no, this is not the Bitcoin top.
It’s the part of the cycle people misread every time.

Save this.
Remind yourself of it when new ATHs are printing and narratives flip.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

@LynAldenContact how could i miss this while i was in TW!?

[Jeff Weniger @JeffWeniger]

The crude oil price divided by the S&amp;P 500 has worked its way down to December 1998 levels. At the time, "everyone" wanted Yahoo, Cisco, AOL, Oracle, and so on. The S&amp;P 500 Energy sector went on to outperform the S&amp;P 500 for the next 10 years.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

Plus, crude oil has been corrected for 3 years.

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

If you’re short OIL, I’ve got some bad news for you.

The correlation between crude oil and the 5-year breakeven inflation rate is deeply negative right now, which is a rare event.

Historically, whenever this weekly correlation stayed below –0.35, the following 12-month performance for oil has been extremely bullish — up 82% of the time, with an average gain of 32%.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

@Jamal020880 @r8limit Should file claims with OBSI and CIRO against the Canadian brokerage. It's broker's duty to handle the corporate action and cannot pass the entire burden to retail clients.

[As The Deer @HJF_Corp]

Could this BTC cycle been extended? Let's watch!

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

ISM correlation to Bitcoin

I find this correlation fascinating.

All 3 past Bitcoin cycle tops have broadly aligned with this monthly, oscillating index.

Based on what the ISM alone is showing, it looks like a cycle top could be mid-2026. This would be contrary to what most are expecting.

Could following it mean we miss the top, or catch the actual top better? No one has that answer.

I'm going to add this to the basket of metrics I keep an eye on for determining a BTC cycle top. I wouldn't rely on it alone, but I would consider it as part of the big picture.

I think Raoul Pal first spotted this, so he gets full credit. I do agree that it's very interesting.