Hashem Pesaran

Hashem Pesaran is the John Elliott Distinguished Chair in Economics at USC, Emeritus Prof. of Economics at Cambridge University, and Fellow of Trinity College.

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

An Economic Model for Securing Hormuz by Massoud Karshenas, et al @ProSyn https://t.co/IiKOeQCkEl

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

Economic sanctions and embargo are effective as prelude to wars. Israel and US attacks on Iran provide further evidence that sanctions as political tools do not succeed and often lead to wars. Negotiations accompanied by trust and mutual respects are the only way forward.

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

We show that mean-variance portfolio need not be efficient when risk premia of a traded risk factor differs from the factor’s mean. See my recent paper with Ron Smith published last week:
https://t.co/UfTebOuxXL

[Kamiar Mohaddes @KamiarMohaddes]

The very last presentation of our three day EMCC-VIII conference is by my brilliant co-author @matt_burke1 on #ClimateChange & Sovereign #Credit Ratings.

In our latest work with Matt, @JosephEStiglitz (@Columbia) @MatthewAgarwala (@BennettInnovate) & @PatrycjaKlusak (@HeriotWattUni) we link #climate science with sovereign #risk assessment to produce a single measure of country-level climate change risk.

More specifically, we integrate climate change scenarios from integrated assessment models with an analysis of sovereign creditworthiness to simulate the impact of climate risks on credit ratings, cost of debt and probability of default. In our sample of 48 countries, a Fragmented World scenario yields an average downgrade of 2.5 notches, a mean increase in the cost of debt of 61 basis points and an increase in the probability of default of 4.7%, by 2050.

Stay tuned for the working paper which will be out at the end of this month!

The Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) VIII Conference, is taking place at @Kings_College, and is organised by @Cambridge_Uni #climaTRACES Lab in collaboration with @janewayinst, the @KingsELab, and the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF) at the @CambridgeJBS.

@Gates_Cambridge | @CRASSHlive | @CamEcon | @BennettInst

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

Cutting investment in infrastructure is not the best way to reduce UK debt-output ratio. We find debt-output ratio to be much more responsive to fiscal shocks as compared to technology/investment shocks.
https://t.co/k2ZrWHQBBK

[Jagjit S. Chadha @jagjit_chadha]

There is a lot of talk this weekend about the impact of #Brexit on the UK economy. The process not only damaged us directly but most probably exacerbated the impact of #Covid and #energyprice shocks.

@NIESRorg analysis from Nov 2023:

🎩 @NiGEMmodel

https://t.co/LjFyiWHof7

[Kamiar Mohaddes @KamiarMohaddes]

Our next monthly International #Iranian Economic Association Webinar is on Measuring and Battling #Corruption with Daniel Kaufmann (@kaufpost, Nonresident Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & Chief Advisor @NRGInstitute) and Nadereh Chamlou (@nchamlou, IIEA & Nonresident Senior Fellow @AtlanticCouncil).

Join us on Monday 10th of June at 16.00 UK time: https://t.co/YjBIMPw23y

NOTE: this is happening on Monday as opposed to the usual Wednesday #IIEAWebinar.

[Rashad Ahmed @VARshad_]

Our paper (@menzie_chinn) showing that foreign yield curves contain information about future US economic activity is officially out in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking!

link: https://t.co/w8Il42M37d
WP version: https://t.co/7gvISBiUT9

[Cambridge EMBA @CambridgeEMBA]

Happy Birthday to the one and only Kamiar Mohaddes!! 🥳 🎈 🎉

#EMBA #CambridgeJudge #BirthdayJoy #Brilliance

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

@MFBittenc Yes. T can be as small as 5 with N large. The larger N the better.

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

In a paper just released
paper: https://t.co/A6ip19LwXW
code/data: https://t.co/nbMFTDuydH
we propose a new estimator for autoregressive panel data models with individual-specific effects and heterogeneous autoregressive coefficients that allow for unit roots. #EconTwitter

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

It was a pleasure to present my paper (with Ron Smith) on high-dimensional multi-step ahead forecasting discussing Lasso and OCMT at CalPoly, and meet Cyrus Ramezani, Hamed Ghoddusi, Mahdi Rastad and many others. Enjoyed the discussion and the amazing location. #EconTwitter

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

Data and codes available for the paper wit Timmermann & Pick on the trade off between estimation uncertainity and parameter heterogeneity in panel forecasting with large number of units and a short T. A combination forecast is proposed. #EconTwitter
https://t.co/N8MigrJfAR

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

Replication of empirical results is now routinely required for economic publications. Why not apply the same standards to BoE research and forecasts?

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

Three errors in inflation control via @FT
https://t.co/tQmu4LQiqE

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

Three errors in inflation control via @FT
https://t.co/tQmu4LQiqE

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

@KamiarMohaddes @USC @USC_Econ @USCDornsife @TrinCollCam @Cambridge_Uni @CamEcon Thanks to Cheng Hsiao for organizing this conference. I was overwhelmed with gratitude.

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

The final version of my paper with Ron Smith on high-dimensional forecasting, developed from my Deane-Stone Lecture at the NIESR June 2023 is now available together with data files. Thanks to Hayun Song for excellent RA. https://t.co/fHCFfWR2dq
#EconTwitter

[Ryan Kang @RJDKang]

I guess all good things must come to an end... 🥲

It has been a huge honour to captain this fantastic @TrinCollCam team on our #UniversityChallenge journey.

We had so much fun and this is due to the hard work of the production team, @rogertilling, and the brilliant @amolrajan.

[Hashem Pesaran @HPesaran]

Hayun Song at the end of his PhD viva at USC. Many congratulations. Tahnsk also to Tim Armstrong, Cheng Hsiao and Gourab Mukherjee for their support.
Hayun will join Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (https://t.co/TY6qyBoUjL) as a Research Fellow #EconTwitter