At some point, usually in your 20s, you'll notice that the people around you stop believing in themselves. And no matter how hard you try, you can't save them. By all means, do not let it infect your mind. Stay on your path.
In 1986, Edward Bernays gave a 30-minute masterclass on the psychology of persuasion.
He convinced an entire generation that:
• Bacon and eggs is the ideal breakfast
• Women smoking is "freedom"
• A cold president was actually warm
12 lessons on influence and persuasion:
I've analyzed every affordable, strategically located coastal town in Italy for a €200-300K budget.
Taxes, airports, cost of living, remote work infrastructure. I've called a couple of friends to confirm the data.
10 towns. The definitive guide for FIRE and Digital Nomads in Italy.
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The most likely low for BTC is October 2026, based on the 4 year cycle.
Under some circumstances it could happen as early as May.
BTC does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle.
You can that the S&P 500 has gone through many periods where it bottoms approximately every 4 years.
Major lows tends to occur in early Q4, but in some cases it occasionally happens in May.
October would be favored if we get multiple week-to-month long countertrend rallies that delay things.
May would be favored if the countertrend rallies just last a few days to a couple weeks, and deeper drawdowns occur sooner.
I favor October over May for now, but as an investor we have to be aware that markets can always evolve in ways we do not expect.
One of the biggest mistakes that many investors have made betting on mania in crypto is that they never really seem to be able to articulate a different view.
When their view does not pan out on the timeframe they gave, they change the timeline and use different reasons for why it will happen.
Last year the reason was M2 and how BTC had to follow M2 (even though BTC always tops before M2).
This year many use the ISM the same way they used M2 last year.
No matter your position, you can always find a narrative to try and support it.
It’s important to recognize that this is just narrative chasing.
Narrative follows price, not the other way around.
You can use the price trends to develop a narrative, but you cannot use a narrative to develop the price trend.
Unfortunately, because the mania predictions are typically never challenged, it causes a lot of people to hold useless investments as they are always chasing the next narrative that gives them hope.
My recommendation is to stop focusing on narratives and instead focus on actual price trends in the market.
Once you do that, you will also likely come to the same conclusions that the news does not matter and that narratives follow price.
You rant about money printing.
But when someone asks how the system actually works?
You stumble.
You can't explain the mechanics.
Fractional reserves.
Debt-based creation.
I broke it all down simply in this article.