Valp

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

No new lows yet, and already the bottom calls are starting to pop up.

If you're wondering about cycle bottom data... no major updates to report. Like SOPR, which is still in bear market development mode. Waiting on a move to high loss.

Even from people who are bearish, they appear to have a very optimistic perspective of how this will play out. A soft fall in the short term, followed by powerful new ATHs into next year.

I think what might surprise a lot of people is how low price can get. Sub 30k is not off the table.

For the cycle to stay on track (and of course I believe it will), a curveball is coming.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Plausible path:

Bitcoin forms a low in June (like it did in June 2018 and June 2022).

BTC rallies in July

SPX correction later in year which allows Bitcoin to finally bottom (most likely October)

Four year cycle wins again

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

#Bitcoin – What's Next?

The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know

🚩TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:

Last week in the Sunday report that was shared in Premium only, mentioned that 50% of the short position was filled with an average entry of 80,500 in the 79-82k batch, with the remaining 50% sitting in orders between 83-85k. Nothing has changed in the plan, and the market continues to deliver exactly what we have been waiting for since the call at 120k. The 120k short remains open, the 80,500 shorts remain open, and the orders between 83-85k remain placed. The plan is simple, and discipline is everything. As long Bitcoin moves below 80k, I do nothing and just keep holding the shorts, once BTC allows to visit 83-85k my orders are waiting to be triggered. As long as the market gives us this gift, I take it. This is not the time to chase, not the time to flip bullish, not the time to listen to the noise on X. This is the time to position, wait, and let the market do what it has been preparing to do for months.

We are in the final stage of Stage 4 of my 6-stage bear market framework. ( Read about the Framework here: https://t.co/uV0f9x11kM) The exhaustion can be really felt, the sideways action is real, the frustration is real. This is exactly what Stage 4 looks like before the transition into Stage 5, the true capitulation phase. Stage 5 begins once we break below 60k, and from there the panic accelerates. Forced selling from long-term holders, exchange or large player collapse, black swan-type events, this is what Stage 5 brings. The 40-50k region remains my ultimate bottom target, with September-October 2026 as the most likely timeline based on my calculations

I see many messages of those who missed the 80-85k entries, I would not FOMO into shorts now, everything below 80k is a deadly area with a lot of volatility, the clear area for shorts is 80-85k, and this is what I am looking for since February. Markets never move in straight lines, and never believe the crash is happening quick, its always exhausting and destructive. People fail to understand this, especially those who believe its a good time to buy.

Calendar this week: The Fed's PCE inflation data was released Friday May 29th as expected. ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday June 2nd, ADP Employment on Wednesday June 4th, and the big one, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday June 6th. Any weakness in employment data combined with sticky inflation puts the Fed in an impossible position. Warsh's first FOMC as Chair is approaching in June, and markets are pricing in a dovish tone that I personally doubt will be delivered.

Summary:

Short from 115-125k fully open
Short from 79-82k filled, average entry 80,500
Remaining short orders at 83-85k still placed
71k long fully closed, profit realized last week!
Stage 4 nearing completion, Stage 5 starts on 60k break
Final bottom: 40-50k region, September-October 2026
SP500 shorts in a loss, but crash is loading

Nothing has changed since the call at 120k. The plan is the plan, the discipline is everything, and the patience is paying off. We are in the most important weeks of this bear market. Stay focused. Join the DrProfit Premium membership here: https://t.co/Ice9n2tMya

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.

[Titan of Crypto @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin

I shared this chart in January 2023 and again in October 2025.

For me, the bear market ends when the black line enters the orange zone.

Until then, I remain cautious.

[Jesse Olson @JesseOlson]

$BTC 2-week chart is still bearish.

The trending dots continue to expand vs. contract.

Price is letting the trending dots and the MA's catch-up.

The golden pocket has yet to be retested.

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

Gold has lost 10% in the recent days. This 10% equals the entire Bitcoin market cap. This tells you how small BTC is compared to other assets, and that’s why I will buy big again once the bottom is in. My biggest bet for the next years remains Bitcoin!

[Valp @HValPal]

@benjamincowen @RangerFinance_ 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The last big move was a precise hit of level 2 on the Magic Bands at 65k.

And, in the exact time frame you'd expect. Dates for previous level 2 in bear markets:

February 26th, 2014
February 3rd, 2018
January 23rd, 2022
February 7th, 2026

The cycle bottom band, which has been incredibly accurate, sits at 28.2k and is slightly increasing.

Lots of waiting to do!

[Titan of Crypto @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin

Historically, the bottom forms when the red line peaks.
Still early.

[Titan of Crypto @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin Reversal trick 🪄

Two conditions:

▫️Market structure breaks to the upside ✔️
▫️2-weekly LMACD histograms flipping green ✔️

It has worked every cycle.

[Titan of Crypto @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin

Structure suggests a possible bottom zone around $50k.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Welcome Back Home, Ethereum.

This time, I guess it stays a while, goes down to the basement to get a snack later this year, and then the next bull market begins

[Titan of Crypto @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin just tapped the green band of the Power Law Corridor.

Historically, this area tends to mark the start of long-term accumulation.

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

#Bitcoin – What’s Next?

The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Psychological Breakdown

In last week’s Sunday report at 78k, I made it very clear that a new box is forming. I expect Bitcoin to move sideways between 57k and 87k, a 33% range, as already stated. This sideways phase is not bullish, it is the preparation for whats coming in the next months. I expect a leg down after this phase, with a breakdown from the box toward lower targets in the coming weeks or months of 44-50k region.

One year ago, in 2024, Bitcoin spent an entire year moving inside a box between 58k and 74k. At that time, I repeatedly explained that this box had three main purposes. The most important one was the drawing of future reference lines for the next bear market. I said many times that the 2024 box would play a key role again during the 2026 bear market, in the same price areas. That is exactly what is happening now. Bitcoin is currently trading in a zone where it previously consolidated for an entire year before breaking higher toward 100k. In a bear market context, this same zone is not support, it is structure, and structure eventually breaks. Once the sideways phase is complete, I expect a breakdown below the box.

Current Plan and Range Logic

I am expecting a large sideways movement between 57k and 87k. My clear intention is to buy between 57k and 60k, which is the bottom of the current box. It is critical to understand that the bottom of the box does not mean the final bottom for Bitcoin. It means the bottom of the current phase. I buy 57k–60k for percentage gains, not for the long term plan as I usually do. As an example, Bitcoin is already up roughly 16% from the 60k buy entry I shared a few days ago.

Does this mean 87k is a guaranteed target? No. It means two simple things. First, Bitcoin between 57k and 60k is in a recovery and bounce phase, which usually includes sideways action. Second, the highest level I expect Bitcoin could reach during this phase is around 87k, depending on the strength and duration of the sideways market. If the market allows a visit to the 87k area, I am open to adding more to my existing shorts that were opened between 115k and 125k and are still fully held.

Positioning and Execution
Some people like to complicate things. From my perspective, it is very simple. I am holding shorts from 115k–125k. At the same time, I placed multiple spot buy orders between 57k and 60k. Some of these orders were triggered around 60k and are already up around 16%. I plan to hold these gains because I expect continued sideways action and no immediate further downside in the coming weeks. I consider 57k–60k the local bottom, not the macro bottom, and I expect this area to be tested multiple times. That is exactly why buying there makes sense to me. There is no reason to sell while upside potential remains. When the moment to sell comes, I will metion once I sold or planning to sell. Bitcoin will move sideways until it no longer does. The largest and most aggressive long-term bets will be placed much lower, between the 50k level and into the low 40s. That is where I will re-enter with serious size for the next cycle, while taking profits from the 115k–125k short, and thats the area I believe Bitcoin will be finally bottomed out. This area is expected to be hit in September-October as my calculations show, in the meantime? A long and boring sideway as mentioned above.

Why I am Buying Now in a Bear Market
Some ask why I am buying now if I expect Bitcoin to eventually bottom around 54k–44k. The answer is simple: markets do not move in straight lines. Even in bear markets, there are powerful counter-trend rallies. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped from 68k to 33k almost without pause. Then, within two months, it rallied from 33k to 48.5k, a 50% move, before continuing down to the final bottom at 16k. This is how markets work.

We are in a bear market. The bounces are temporary and exist to build liquidity for further downside. My ultimate bear market target remains below 50k, in the 40s area. That is where my largest positions will be built. Until then, my short from 115k–125k remains fully open. I am not longing with leverage. I am buying spot between 57k and 60k while keeping the short open.

Join premium here: https://t.co/TvHxOtKhHj

THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVICE AND EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY

[Rekt Fencer @rektfencer]

$BTC Macro Cycles:

2015-2017 Bull: 12 Jan '15 ➜ 11 Dec '17 (1064 days)
2017-2018 Bear: 11 Dec '17 ➜ 10 Dec '18 (364 days)

2018-2021 Bull: 10 Dec '18 ➜ 8 Nov '21 (1064 days)
2021-2022 Bear: 8 Nov '21 ➜ 7 Nov '22 (364 days)

2022-2025 Bull: 7 Nov '22 ➜ 6 Oct '25 (1064 days)
2025-2026 Bear: 6 Oct '25 ➜ 5 Oct '26 (364 days)

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

What a great post.

Anytime we find ourselves on the wrong side of the market, we must learn something from it and figure out what we missed.

It is true that the markets can remain irrational for long periods of time, and don't always have to "make sense" on shorter time frames.

I think Jamie deserves props for writing this and I am going to follow him to see what his views on the market will be in the future.

I'd rather follow someone who has the courage to make posts like this, than someone who does not.

When people make public calls and get it wrong (like I have many times), it really starts to change something inside of you.

It's make your future views more educated, better articulated, and with better understanding of the counter thesis.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

The most likely low for BTC is October 2026, based on the 4 year cycle.

Under some circumstances it could happen as early as May.

BTC does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle.

You can that the S&P 500 has gone through many periods where it bottoms approximately every 4 years.

Major lows tends to occur in early Q4, but in some cases it occasionally happens in May.

October would be favored if we get multiple week-to-month long countertrend rallies that delay things.

May would be favored if the countertrend rallies just last a few days to a couple weeks, and deeper drawdowns occur sooner.

I favor October over May for now, but as an investor we have to be aware that markets can always evolve in ways we do not expect.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

In 2018, this is the day BTC found a low at just below $6k.

That low more or less held until Q4.

Let's see what BTC does here?

Could we be repeating, just 10x higher?

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

I think soon, people will be calling for another cycle bottom as they did at 80k, except this time it will seem more plausible.

Metrics like Weekly RSI are at cycle bottom levels, and once people see a bounce, they'll be all in again.

It is clear that long-term holders are still not interested in current prices. There is a long way to go before they reach high long-term holder (blue) territory.

Where were all these bear market experts at the highs? Nowhere to be found of course.

I am still patiently sitting in all cash from 112.5k August 2025, waiting for an opportunity.

What will that look like? A time when no one wants anything to do with crypto. Unlike now, where everyone is chomping at the bit to buy the next cycle bottom.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Every cycle is the same.

Yes, crypto could bounce. And honestly, it would be great for sentiment if it could. But even if it does, it would most likely result in a macro lower high.

I don't try and time those bounces. I have tried before with mixed levels of success. Sometimes it works, other times I got rekt.

When BTC drops below the 50W moving average, it then goes to the 100W moving average, spends a little time there, then goes to the 200W moving average.

Every cycle is eventually the same.

BTC topped when it always does (Q4 of the post-halving year), and so many have spent so many hours trying to convince you that it has not.

And BTC entered into a bear market, and so many have tried to get you to believe that alt season is "just around the corner" because it always happens after BTC tops. What they fail to account for is social interest. After the 2019 top there was also no rotation into altcoins, which also occurred just before QT ended.

I track the social interest in the asset class, and it has been trending down since 2021. There is no one new here for people to sell their altcoins to.

Alt seasons historically occur *after* social interest has been trending up for a year, not after it has been trending down for 5 years.

Have an actual plan on navigating this brutal asset class. Because if the altcoins you hold drop another 50%-80% from here, not a single influencer who promoted them will express an ounce of regret for it. And you will simply be living with the consequences.

I get a lot of hate for saying the truth, but an inconvenient truth is better than a lie.