Hal Brands

JHU, AEI, Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Author of new book, The Landscape of Power (Norton).

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

New book alert! The Landscape of Power: Geography and the Rise and Fall of Nations will be out with WW Norton in January.

@AEI @wwnorton
https://t.co/goZLBCWJll

[Robert Doar @RobertDoar]

AEI's @halbrands: The next 2 years will reveal whether President Trump bequeaths a tough but manageable situation in which dangers are plentiful but America’s position is still strong or whether he departs amid a worsening global chaos.

https://t.co/jmpr38vMkV

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

Trump has been badly weakened politically--but that doesn't mean he'll be geopolitically passive in his last two years. What to expect from the final act of Trump's presidency, amid a whole world of trouble.

https://t.co/r4za0dZRxZ

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

The Donroe Doctrine has been the most consistent and successful aspect of Trump's foreign policy. But now, there are as many challenges as opportunities ahead.

@opinion @aei
https://t.co/bbIB8ofUJL

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

As wars in Iran and Ukraine show, the drone revolution is here. But a global superpower will need a balanced arsenal to prevail in the conflicts to come.

@opinion @AEI

https://t.co/XPrkyJzfkd

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

Peace in Ukraine is a desirable destination. Trump just has no idea how to get there. My latest for @opinion on the US-Russia diesel deal.

https://t.co/rCstUby2EY

@AEI

[Vali Nasr @vali_nasr]

A worthwhile read: War Is Forcing the World to Reckon With Geography’s Power https://t.co/89tOodxWxY

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

Great piece from @PatcohenNYT on the role of geography in the Iran conflict and other global struggles.

https://t.co/O6Dnf0ICt0

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

The AI revolution is redrawing the strategic map of our era--a long read on how geography and technology interact. Drawing on my forthcoming book, The Landscape Of Power--out in January.

@opinion @AEI

https://t.co/WVP5ug0rtV

[Bloomberg @business]

Can a technological revolution change geography? AI is redrawing the map of the US-China rivalry, @halbrands writes (via @opinion) https://t.co/8CWXMFJxld

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

The Red Sea region has become a single integrated theater of conflict. And it offers a preview of the disordered world ahead.

https://t.co/TYclhcR2nI

@opinion @AEI

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

Come work with me and the other good folks at the Kissinger Center! New opportunities for pre and post doctoral fellowships now open for next academic year.

@AWConsortium @KissingerCenter

https://t.co/8hlhiqqa2S

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

Trump talked tough at the UN this week. But around, he confronts a cadre of determined adversaries that don’t seem intimidated by US power.

@opinion @AEI

https://t.co/IQZDeB6tpC

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

Hedging is hard. Just ask Saudi Arabia, which is losing faith in the US but doesn't have any good alternative options, just yet.

@opinion @AEI
https://t.co/rkLvTeh3vO

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

Terrific piece by folks @RANDCorporation Geopolitics of AGI. I've linked up with them for some cool activities--wargames, scenario exercises, a paper on ASI--over past year or so. Great group--RAND scholars and friendly fellow-travelers--tackling a defining challenge of our time.

[RAND @RANDCorporation]

Read the paper ⤵️
https://t.co/OgmfFYbujG

[RAND @RANDCorporation]

A U.S. Strategy for Superintelligence

Leading U.S. AI companies are calling for pacing the frontier. Whether and how government should take action remains contested.

In a new paper, RAND researchers outline a U.S. strategy for navigating an uncertain path to artificial superintelligence. The stakes are high—not only for geopolitics, but for humanity’s survival and agency.

The authors assess seven archetypal strategies currently dominating the AI debate. Each has its own coherent win state, theory of victory, and structural weaknesses. They also identify key uncertainties that make it impossible to objectively rank these strategies.

The authors argue that committing prematurely to any of these strategies forecloses options on the path to superintelligence. The same is true of succumbing to paralysis in the face of uncertainty.

Given these dynamics, the authors recommend that the United States instead adopt a "Freedom of Action" strategy. This approach would build and preserve the capacity to pursue whichever strategy the evidence eventually comes to favor.

That would mean investing in
1️⃣ building a human-AI ecosystem that preserves human survival and agency
2️⃣ an AI security architecture
3️⃣ adaptations of legacy national security enterprises for the AI era
4️⃣ the capacity of citizens, firms, and governments to respond.

“The possible emergence of superintelligence is a strategic challenge without precedent,” the authors write. “Freedom of action is the guiding policy rather than the goal; the ends remain U.S. geopolitical advantage and humanity’s survival with agency, and preserving the capacity to choose is, under present uncertainty, the most reliable means of securing them.”

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

If the US is thinking about pausing/pacing the AI frontier, it also needs to get serious about ensuring reciprocal Chinese restraint. My latest for @opinion @AEIfdp

https://t.co/FKt6EdRYF2

[Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture]

Looking forward to this new book from @HalBrands

[Fareed Zakaria @FareedZakaria]

"Our world is at risk of becoming a gangster’s paradise, in which rules matter far less than they once did—and raw power matters more." https://t.co/yw2hHm9Hk0

[Guy Laron @guy_laron]

It’s alive!

[Hal Brands @HalBrands]

We've entered the era of the contested commons: The openness and stability of critical domains--sea, space, and cyberspace--that have enabled international peace and prosperity are under grave assault.

A weekend long read @opinion @AEI

https://t.co/GT4IMdVrtr