Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer

Election Data Nerd, Dashboard Connoissseur, East Tennessee Enthusiast

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

No update tonight because of no voting, so thought I'd list the races I will be watching. I'm sure all eyes will be on TN when polls close at 8.

Federal:
US Senate
TN-3
TN-5
TN-7
TN-9

Statewide:
Governor
Amendment 1
Amendment 2
Amendment 3

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

@LIEngProf It truly only broke due to the independent vote share. Hagerty winning all 9 is a testament to that.

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Marsha Blackburn won Tennessee by 2.6 points but lost six of its nine congressional districts.

In five of those, voters backed Democrat Jerri Green for governor and a Republican for the House. Hagerty carried all nine in the Senate.

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

@casualtnprog I think the next few cycles will be very interesting, but DEMs will have to make meaningful progress in Williamson.

Hamilton did shift left this year, but it was 11.5% to the right of the nation in 2024. That’s close to where it’ll be for 2026 congressional vote.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Meanwhile, the trend for relative to the state held up almost perfectly.

It predicted Hamilton being ~16% to the left of the state. Thats basically where we are.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Hamilton county voting DEM for US House was a major shock.

The was the first time that happened since 1990. For reference, that’s before Zach Wamp’s first run for office.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Precinct results show deep shifts all across Hamilton county.

Green won North Chattanooga B by 43%. Trump won it by 0.1%. Herndon also had a heavy shift in August, and that was retained.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Historical trends predicted that Hamilton would be 15% to the right of the nation, so this was way more of a left shift than anticipated.

The 2028 presidential will be very interesting to track.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

@nikolamast02 For the gov race:

From 2024: 22.5% left
From August: 21% left

Was 11.3 and 9.8 for Senate

Was one that didn’t shift much in the mayor race, but shifted majorly this time.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Precinct results show deep shifts all across Hamilton county.

Green won North Chattanooga B by 43%. Trump won it by 0.1%. Herndon also had a heavy shift in August, and that was retained.

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Tennessee's new map cracked Memphis into three GOP seats. On the 2024 lines, 2026's House vote would have elected 2 Democrats

Old map: 7R-2D
New map: 8R-1D, with Dems leading TN-4 by 280 votes and losing TN-9 by 1 pt

per @DecisionDeskHQ

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

@nikolamast02 9% for Hatley, so slightly more than the county but really nothing major.

Hagerty won it by 16%, so there a few Green-Hagerty voters. Fleischmann only by 11.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Funny enough, she will probably run for senate again multiple times

[Debbie Dingell Stan🇺🇦🇵🇸🇬🇪 @AustinHoney30]

At this rate she can flip the seat in 2032.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

@LukaHoward Good catch. They were even marked as Dem on my tracker and I still missed it!

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Recap:

Federal:
Haggerty wins, but big shift toward the DEMs
GOP hold TN-3
I considered TN-4 the 5th least likely to flip but it did.
GOP hold TN-3,TN-5, TN-7, Gain TN-9 barely.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

No update tonight because of no voting, so thought I'd list the races I will be watching. I'm sure all eyes will be on TN when polls close at 8.

Federal:
US Senate
TN-3
TN-5
TN-7
TN-9

Statewide:
Governor
Amendment 1
Amendment 2
Amendment 3

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Based on the numbers, nearly all Haltey voters went GOP down ballot.

Election Day vote was just 44% of the total. Perhaps due to the national environment, but that is the opposite to the past, where Hamilton was more eday than early.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Green won the early vote by 18.7% in Hamilton. Blackburn won the Election Day vote by 0.6%.

Third party share increased from 7.2% in early voting to 11.2% on Election Day.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Green +18 in Hamilton County

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Thank you everyone for following along tonight! TN ended up being pretty interesting even for national reporting!

I'll have more in the coming days (mostly just from Hamilton precinct data)

Good night everyone!

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

@nikolamast02 I counted 9 state house seats.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

State House:

DEMs flip 13, 18, 49, 59, 60, 67, 75, 97, and 34. 34 was not even on my list to watch.

Watson was very close in the State Senate. but no flips.

[Hamilton County TN Elections Enjoyer @HamiltonCntyEE]

Statewide:

Blackburn wins barely. Hatley with a bit of a flop.
All 3 Amendments pass overwhelmingly.