Nassau Centrist Mapper

English & Film Professor/#Educator/#FilmBuff/Mapmaker: House (specialty), County & Precinct Maps/Proud Long Island #ModerateDem/Dad💙👦🏼👩🏼🚫No DMs

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

America at 250, Part IV - 200 Years In

Coinciding with Jimmy Carter’s narrow defeat of Gerald Ford, ‘76 marked the last time to date that either party held a 2/3 House majority.

Dems achieved this by doing well in the cities, while also maintaining a strong grip on the South - despite significant GOP gains over the preceding decade.

Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

America at 250, Part III - 150 Years In

While the 50 & 100 year anniversaries saw ultra-divisive presidential elections, 1926 followed Calvin Coolidge’s blowout win in ‘24.

With the nation booming during the Roaring Twenties, Dems made only modest House gains, with Rs maintaining a comfortable majority. Dems kept their stranglehold over the Solid South, while Rs dominated in New England, the Mid-Atlantic (outside NYC), the Midwest and the growing West Coast.

Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@keeshalldaylong @Sinfulskin2 @jasonllevin @SassyIsADancer @eliseannpb @DebbieDem3 @alterfly @Chervrolet80 @reachen @ToOl93027 @Shiptech90 @lorenza71319 @PicklesDude52 @rahansen1 @OliviasMumSue @BlueHereMaritza Followed all new Keesha. Enjoy the rest of your day everyone! A rough evening weather wise here in the Big Apple! 💙😺😎

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@Sinfulskin2 @keeshalldaylong @IIKnowIDont @Sigmund84540696 @AllisonNeedHope @iamAtheistGirl @inventionsmom @Renee93405389 @Maxinetheblack1 @dinjup27 @aphroditeashe @Janabw81 @Jackmcd01759084 @jeanangel58 @jmoeti57 @justmenow181 @BC_and_CC Followed a few new Sin. I hope everyone’s enjoying their Friday Eve! 💙😺😎

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@PoliticalDeamon It would depend almost entirely on who wins the presidential election that year.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

I had said a while back that AES would get treated as a generic Dem in this year’s MI Senate race. This is exactly what happened.

He won by a nearly identical margin as Debbie Stabenow, a much more traditional politician, in 2018.

[Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17]

Do moderate politicians have an electability advantage still? Yes, but it's smaller than ever before — and worth thinking about @TheArgumentMag.

(With some preliminary findings from our @SplitTicket_ Wins-Above-Replacement/WAR model!)
https://t.co/AO5iDszb6C

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@PoliticalDeamon Impossible to predict this far out. We’ll literally be on our second presidential election by then.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@BeshearStan

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

And with that, MS elects its first Dem Senator since 1982.

Colom’s win changes the political equation in MS to some degree. How angry are black voters over the VRA gutting? Do Rs still redraw the maps? How do they handle another likely Gov run from Brandon Presley next year?

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

VoteHub projects Scott Colom to win the Mississippi U.S. Senate election.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@Aseemru Still one of the safest gerrymanders drawn in recent years. No seats changed hands the whole decade.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@AndrewDahDude @kkondik Yup, it would likely be 2010 all over again (though without the realignment aspect to it).

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

PROJECTION: Scott Colom defeats Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in a historic upset in Mississippi, which Trump won by 23 points in 2024. The state’s last Black Senator was born a slave, and its last Democratic senator was a segregationist.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@thepassingtramp @abreezeclayton @Athenas_Son_V You’d call this gerrymandering?! 😹

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@Sinfulskin2 @Honest562023 @keeshalldaylong @BC_and_CC @Ana_bel_1 @OliveMyrtl59148 @SCYBERNETIK_BK @colelf69 @AnnieForTruth @TheOnlyEsta2 @hoopsmccann967 @ReggieW26185238 @Jac_lovesmusic1 @DelilloM @Sean_Heuston_16 @chflutter @DanielS42245695 Followed a couple of new Sin. I hope everyone’s day is going well! 💙😺😎

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@thepassingtramp @abreezeclayton @Athenas_Son_V They complained until they cleaned up on the map in the 1994 elections.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@NilesGApol Yep.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

Honestly, it’s Colom likely winning the MS Senate race. In particular, I was shocked he won DeSoto county, which has even gone red in super strong Dem performances, like Brandon Presley’s 2015 Public Service Commissioner election.

[Center for Politics at UVA @Center4Politics]

NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @loujacobson on the scope of the Democrats' massive state legislative and downballot statewide successes last week: https://t.co/5BDiPY3ccw (new state leg. control pictured)

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@roon0292 @HamiltonCntyEE *second straight midterm cycle

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

The TN gerrymander collapsing for Blackburn’s Gov run is a big deal when you consider that it didn’t even crack (though it was close) for her 2018 win against former Gov Phil Bredesen - easily Dems’ best candidate.

An absolutely insane year this has been! 🤯

[Jake Marks @jakemarks42]

Marsha Blackburn won Tennessee by 2.6 points but lost six of its nine congressional districts.

In five of those, voters backed Democrat Jerri Green for governor and a Republican for the House. Hagerty carried all nine in the Senate.

@DecisionDeskHQ

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@roon0292 @HamiltonCntyEE And the second straight cycle a House campaign chief has lost reelection.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@roon0292 @HamiltonCntyEE At least the trash finally got taken out with DesJarlais.

[Nassau Centrist Mapper @LIEngProf]

@JacobRubashkin I’ve been delving into that year quite a bit lately. Definitely bizarro world compared to today…