Hamza Nehal

[ChainShinobi @chainshinobi]

Phase 1 📌

Silent destruction and disbelief throughout 2025.

Phase 2 📌

Short selective outperformance in 2026 creating renewed euphoria and false confidence.

Phase 3 📌

Another major fear event in Q3 2026 between July and September to shake out late buyers and overconfident participants.

Phase 4 📌

The real expansion phase into 2027 where the market finally pushes toward new highs above 2021 levels.

That would explain why this cycle constantly feels disconnected, delayed and psychologically exhausting compared to previous cycles.

Because the market structure itself has changed.

[Anonymous | Crypto Predictions @Crypto_Twittier]

#Bitcoin - Just an idea of what I expect over the next 8 - 10 months.

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@CMShehbaz @ZRasheed85 Well Done sir 👏
Pakistan Zindabad 🇵🇰

[Ted @TedPillows]

This is how the $BTC bottom structure will probably look.

After this, the next multi-year uptrend will start.

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@CricCrazyJohns This is truly amazing cricket mindset.

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@TedPillows Ideal case would be BTC crash hard to 18K

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@RohitianAP Seriously? Bumrah better than McGrath? Faf must really love IPL

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@AshCrypto They should all be in jail

[ChainShinobi @chainshinobi]

2026 will give us two possible exit windows.

Window 1: February 17 – March 10, 2026 👁️

Window 2: March 20 – April 14, 2026 👁️

These are the dates I’ll be watching to exit all my spot positions accumulated between October and December 2025, right after re-entering the market that I left in December 2024.

How do we differentiate the two windows ?

Simple we will judge it by the strength of PA and the intensity of bullish news being pushed to keep us holding.

Meanwhile, we stay laser-focused on the key confluences and data

$USDT.D, $BTC.D, $OTHERS, $ETHBTC, and everything else that matters.

We follow the plan.

We stay disciplined.

Because no matter how euphoric it gets, I believe the true bear market begins in Q2 2026.

I’ll come back to this post when the time is right ✍️

[ChainShinobi @chainshinobi]

Anything between 375B and 550B as max scenario is the correct number.

550B would mean extended and extreme premium also it would imply a new ATH since 2021 which so far has never happened while every other chart did.

I highly doubt we see past 550B on $OTHERS

the smart ones should definitely take heavy profit around 375B

[SpawnYaard 🎮 @SpawnYaardReply]

Top 11 games with most awards 👀

11. Red Dead Redemption 2 – 178
10. Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End – 190
9. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 229
8. The Last of Us – 257
7. Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 262
6. God of War – 264
5. Baldur’s Gate 3 – 280
4. The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 281
3. The Last of Us Part 2 – 326
2. Elden Ring – 429
1. Expedition 33 - 436

[ChainShinobi @chainshinobi]

Let’s break the myth of #altseason once and for all and define outperformance for the low IQs in the back.

Altseason = #alts outperforming $BTC in % terms.

That’s it. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Meaning

If #alts push more % than $BTC that is #altseason.

Most coins doing 2/3/4x+ while $BTC does 30 to 50% means

1-outperformance

2-alt + season

3-the season of altcoins.

Example #1

Late Oct 2023 → March/April 2024

Our first altseason.

$OTHERS went from 100B → 475B…almost 5x in market cap

Meaning most #alts did 3x to 50x (yes, I can name 100+ examples, but you get the point)

$BTC 26K → 73K

barely 3x but 80% of #alts outperformed $BTC.

That is, by definition, altseason.

Example #2

Aug/Sept 2024 → Dec 2024 / Jan 2025

Altseason #2

$BTC: 49–51K → 111K (local top)

2x but #alts again printing 3/4x+ against $BTC

Once again

#Alts outperformed $BTC.

Once again #altseason.

Unless the definition suddenly changed…enlighten me.

Now fast forward to today

If #alts print another 2/3x/4x+ while $BTC only has 20–30% left in the tank….

that is still altseason

Example

$BTC: +20/30%

#alts: +100% to +300%++

That is outperformance.

What most of you get wrong

There is NO rule that says:

#Altseason must be 50x–100x across the board or that $OTHERS must make a new ATH

That’s your fantasy, not the definition.

Thinking you’re entitled to 100x is exactly why you always get rekt.

Because you refuse to accept this simple fact

3/4/5x up to 10x+ is an #Altseason

You don’t need 100x.

You need outperformance.

And misunderstanding that distinction is why most of you

1-Hold too long

2-Miss exits and round trip everything back down

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@inspirdanalyst This is probably happening 20th time in past month or so

[Ted @TedPillows]

$BTC seems to be mimicking the 2021 cycle.

Similar double top structure and now a bounceback too.

This means Bitcoin could rally towards the $100,000-$105,000 level before the next leg down.

[Ted @TedPillows]

If $126K was the $BTC top, Bitcoin's ongoing rally might not be over yet.

In the last 3 cycles, BTC touched the daily SMA-200 level before continuing the downtrend.

Right now, it's sitting around $109,000 and is coming down.

It's possible that BTC could rally towards the $100,000-$104,000 level before reversal.

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@TedPillows People will never learn. Leverage trading is gambling

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@CryptoJebb Date for market to make next big leg down?

[Hamza Nehal @HamzaNehal]

@TedPillows Everyone expecting test to 50W MA. This might play out as well as this playbook is too predictable. Better to exit all as 2026 start could be brutal similar to 2022.

[Jason Pizzino 🌞 @jasonpizzino]

How long can Bitcoin keep this going for? #BTC

→ Bookmark and reshare for reference ♻️🔖

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

In July 2024, the Fed cut rates while the BOJ raised rates, leading to the unwind of the carry trade.

Bitcoin capitulated into it, and found a low 1 week later.

Good chance this happens again on December 10th (Fed cuts, BOJ raises rates).

So maybe Bitcoin finds a low mid-Dec?