Han

[Max @MaxTorchbearer]

me 3 months after reading this masterpiece with the boys

[tastylive @tastyliveshow]

The last three midterms each began a decline of 10% or more.

Sept 19 2014. Sept 20 2018. Aug 16 2022.

Every one started within a day of opex or VIX expiration.

@jam_croissant read?

The positioning that matters is concentrated in quarterly expirations, so the risk clusters on those dates rather than spreading evenly.

Support flows peak Monday, then drop off into August opex.

@TraderMikeyB @JermalChandler react 👇

$ES $SPX #options #trading

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

Expect flurry of good news for next few weeks as OpenAI and Anthropic IPO runway is cleared .

There will be feel good mushy stories about these companies .

The IPO will be final rug pull.

IMO both IPO will fall by 50% (from the IPO week high).

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

2026 will be a brutal year.

Everyone will hide in stocks to save themselves.

Stocks will save them till September.

On September 1 2026 a bear market will begin that shall cut down stocks by 50%.

Bookmark me.

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

Covid-19 was a shock to global profitability.

If you ignore Covid, the average earnings of S&P500 come at $200 per share.

This gives $4000 as the MOAS (mother of all support).

This level will trade sooner or later . And I am a buyer . Now $7800.

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

If volatility scares you, today I want to share $SPHD with you my friend.

5% dividend. Paid every month. A beta of 50%. $30 per year fees per 10K.

The lowest volatility, highest quality stocks are first found and then filtered for high dividends.

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

The market has had a strong run, and it feels like everyone is standing next to the exit door because they believe the party is about to end. But parties usually don’t end when S&P futures are down half a percent and the $VIX is sitting at 15.6, barely moving while the front month $VIX future that stands at 17 is not moving at all.

I’ll start paying attention when the $VIX moves at roughly a 1-to-6 ratio relative to the $SPX. Right now, what I see is a handful of very overstretched tech names that probably need a correction. What I don’t see is a signal from the $VIX that the broader market is facing a meaningful correction.

That doesn’t mean the market can’t pull back 1–3%, especially the Nasdaq. It certainly can. But major corrections are usually accompanied by clear signals from the $VIX, and the $VIX isn’t seeing that today.

The $VIX is around 15.5, hedges are relatively cheap, and yet nobody seems to be rushing to buy protection.

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

I put on the following trade yesterday as a replacement for my lack of tech exposure in the portfolio:

Expires June 18 (22 days)

Buy 1 725 put
Sell 3 692 puts

Starts losing at $QQQ -7%
Max profit at $QQQ -5%

The spread will be worth at least $1 in any positive scenario.
Will be happy to buy a lot of $QQQ -7% from here, win-win.

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

Sell $usdcad on rally. Now 1.38.

$1 cometh by 2028.

[Han @HanHan859]

@william_lou

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

More retardation.

Investing is not salary.

Not all years will give you 10%.

Some years you will be down 30%.

It’s all about time in market.

I only wanna live off dividends and borrow against stocks, not selling stock!

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

As our runners keep paying now up hundreds of points, key to remember this rally has a clear technical basis. As posted on April 4th #ES_F spent all March in a 1 month downtrend channel/bull flag. I was looking for a breakout, and we did

1 month breakouts see one month rallies.

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

My account never holds cash-it’s in stocks when I’m bullish, or in put ratio spreads when I’m neutral/bearish, or both. If the market drops 3%, I make money. At 5%, I’m happy to get assigned stocks or the Qs. So why sit in cash unless you expect total oblivion?

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

This could be the most productive Sunday of your life.

The NASDAQ has been up seven days in a row, it will open deep in the red on Monday. Make a list of the stocks that have risen the most. Pick the top 10 and make that your buy list.

The next time the market is down, you buy exactly those stocks. You don’t improvise. You don’t come up with new names or new ideas.

These are the only stocks you buy.

To crowdsource this take, comment below with your favorite stock and how much it’s up over the last 7 days-ideally include a chart. If it’s not up at least 10%, don’t waste our time.

I’ll go first: $AMZN

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

Usually once or twice a year, when the $VIX spikes to extremes, I tell my followers on instagram-regular people that usually sit on cash with no market knowledge to start buying.

I did it during COVID. I did it again when the market dropped ~15% on tariffs. This year, by luck, I nailed the exact bottom. I don’t always catch it perfectly, but I’m usually close enough.

To simplify things (so they don’t need me), I built a simple framework:

If the $VIX is above 30 and the market is down more than 8%, invest 50%-then scale in until fully invested.

I’ve attached a simple table below that shows if you have $10,000 in cash exactly how much to add at each step-so anyone can follow it without overthinking.

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

While longs continue to pay in (now +280 points from the 6592 Failed Breakdown on Tuesday given out live) good time to zoom out. As posted Saturday, #ES_F spent a month in a clean downtrend channel/flag. Tuesday, it broke out.

1 month pattern breaks often see 1+ month rallies

[Ted @TedPillows]

2008 GFC Crash:

▫️ S&P 500 dumped 20%, then pumped 14% before another 53% drop.

2020 Covid Crash:

▫️ $SPX dumped 15%, then pumped 9% before another 30% drop.

2025 Tariffs Crash:

▫️ SPX dumped 10%, then pumped 5% before another 16% drop.

2026 Dump:

▫️ SPX has dropped 9% and could drop a bit more.

After that a relief rally will happen, followed by another leg down.

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

Big Picture View: Since Feb 25, #ES_F is locked inside a perfect downtrend channel/flag. Resistance is now up at 6677, and support is 6412. We closed a little under Friday

Plan next week: Bulls must recover 6412 to see 6454, 6524, 6575, 6677. If 6385 fails we sell 6334, 6291

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

2008 GFC Crash:

Initially dropped 19% unabated, rallied 14%, before the next shoe dropped.

2018 Taper Tantrum Crash:

Initially dropped 11% unabated, rallied 8%, before the next shoe dropped.

2020 Covid Crash:

Initially dropped 15% unabated, rallied 10%, before the next shoe dropped.

2022 High Interest/Inflation Crash:

Initially dropped 12% unabated, rallied 9%, before the next shoe dropped.

2025 Trump Tariffs Crash:

Initially dropped 10% unabated, rallied 5%, before the next shoe dropped.

2026 Iran War Crash:

Initially drops 10% unabated (so far), rallies ?%, before next shoe drops?

[Han @HanHan859]

RT @ZeeContrarian1: How I decide where to place my $QQQ strikes:

1.$QQQ down ~4.5% YTD, some cushion

2.Various days where $VIX is down an…