han

[han @HanafyTrading]

@N565UA For more giggles than shits; O/U on 1-day Freezeoffs assuming 65 everywhere the day before your map? I'll cuff 7 bcf, 5@10 2-way. If WY/CO were another notch colder you'b be looking at a 8@12 market. Thoughts? #Natgas #Production #PolarVortex #Freezeoffs #CashRippage #WeatherVol

[han @HanafyTrading]

Masterful, simply masterful! Well played. I ate 20c off highs on G and H both but still awesome profit. Left more on table not hedging vol mid-week than futs. Just reloaded this AM again - all H this time. #Natgas

[Jason Tidwell @BadfishRanch]

@andrepaltry @Holy_Helicity @HanafyTrading I am out of everything. Don't like the OI data from last couple of days.

[han @HanafyTrading]

Please hammer don't hurt em! The difference b/n @grassosteve (#Rockstar) and #Nostradamas is it took ole Nosty a hell of a lot longer to be proven right. Shorting some more #ES #AAPL and #XLF up here, good thing I keep monetizing small portions otherwise would be complete facial

[Steve Grasso @grassosteve]

S&P cash Sell zone is 2581 up to 2637 if they overshoot it’s 2705

[han @HanafyTrading]

@N565UA 2.80 bid, 3.401 stop? 😇

[han @HanafyTrading]

Ok we got my +50 - literally $2.98 to $3.50. I'm flat G underlying - Just long a lot of H and long G calls now. Not turning calls in to callspreads yet as this still has po-ten-tial. #Natgas #RiskReward #Vol #LuckyvsGood This is suddenly an incredibly awesome month!

[han @HanafyTrading]

Got long today @ $2.98. With the vol selloff it's substantially cheaper to own the same deltas as a few weeks ago but also got long underlying. It's +50 vs -15 unless the blue @ end turns to purple or red; then we could push thru $3.50 or $2.85 and recalibrate R:R #Natgas #Vol

[han @HanafyTrading]

@Holy_Helicity @BadfishRanch Risk-wise this is when it's difficult to objectively quantifying market view vs my bias. That is, I think none of today's Ensemble gains are priced-in. But if we lose the same 10 HDD's overnight then I presume, with high confidence, we open lower. Hard equation to balance #Natgas

[han @HanafyTrading]

Multiplied by -1 and this tweet would have aged incredibly well! Looked like a good call for an hour with #ES ticking down near 2570 only to punk my view balday. Nothing like the rebirth of the never-go-down-propped up by policy-volless market. #SPY #SPX #Vol

[han @HanafyTrading]

#ES was 2565 when the President recycled "great progress" with China. We were 2587 heading in to J Powell's interview. Up to 2594 early, then he mentioned "substantially smaller balance sheet" than current $4 Trillion but "well above" pre-QE of $1 T. Guessing we undue Trump #SPX

[han @HanafyTrading]

@BadfishRanch Agreed, just bought some more G and some more H. #Natgas I like the way this ECMWF Ensemble appears to bending to the GFS solution defying its own op.

[han @HanafyTrading]

#ES was 2565 when the President recycled "great progress" with China. We were 2587 heading in to J Powell's interview. Up to 2594 early, then he mentioned "substantially smaller balance sheet" than current $4 Trillion but "well above" pre-QE of $1 T. Guessing we undue Trump #SPX

[han @HanafyTrading]

Well, lucky I covered 30% LOL - was up > 270% on the trades at one point, monetized for cost and now up 28% after eating vol and the rally. @grassosteve highlighted this 2580-ish level so I just bought more puts on Crude, AAPL, SPY, and ES today #Vol #NearTermBear #ES #SPY #AAPL

[han @HanafyTrading]

G/H was +4c at G highs this morning. 15 mins after #EIA and we're G/H now flat on the day. Huge delta. I'm interested in how balday plays out #Natgas #Spreads #Curve

[han @HanafyTrading]

@grassosteve almost flawless (given that it's trading and it's a market) from 2900 S&P down to 2400 and up to 2580. RT'ing this for those of you a bit late to his party. Used my bias and bought puts today with ES@2590, AAPL@154, WTI@52 but he's clear - some near-term upside risk

[Steve Grasso @grassosteve]

S&P cash Sell zone is 2581 up to 2637 if they overshoot it’s 2705

[han @HanafyTrading]

@BadfishRanch I'm personally getting putbuyer'd, does that count? LOL

[han @HanafyTrading]

Well, lucky I covered 30% LOL - was up > 270% on the trades at one point, monetized for cost and now up 28% after eating vol and the rally. @grassosteve highlighted this 2580-ish level so I just bought more puts on Crude, AAPL, SPY, and ES today #Vol #NearTermBear #ES #SPY #AAPL

[han @HanafyTrading]

Covered 30% of the SPY puts ref $244.25 which pays for all the puts I bought yesterday on everything- everything lol. Covered 75% of AAPL puts ref $142.5 but added 147/136 PS for 01/11 expo. Violent though not unjustified #SPY #CL #VOL #VIXX Lets see if 2450 SPX holds

[han @HanafyTrading]

Got long today @ $2.98. With the vol selloff it's substantially cheaper to own the same deltas as a few weeks ago but also got long underlying. It's +50 vs -15 unless the blue @ end turns to purple or red; then we could push thru $3.50 or $2.85 and recalibrate R:R #Natgas #Vol

[han @HanafyTrading]

@EnergyCredit1 @BadfishRanch CAPEX identical at 70 vs 50. The essence of "pro-forma" (shudder back to my IB days lol). If extended are we to believe CAPEX would be the same at $40 vs $80? RE: $ for $ CAPEX reduction vs FCF increase is what chart implies. Hence plenty of levers to be FCF positive even at $40

[han @HanafyTrading]

2/2 12:15 on oil production: "you'll see production still this year net increase by 1 mmbp/d +...even at this oil price we are above breakeven for most areas of the Permian basin" #Natgas #Crude #WTI. Doveish voice explicitly stating not there yet on rate cut/runoffs. #RUHROH

[han @HanafyTrading]

Fed's Kaplan on Monetary Policy, China, Inflation https://t.co/DcHuiK2z8U 6:10 curtailing balance sheet runoffs: "I'm not at that point yet", 7:15 "not there yet" 9:30 Fed's impact on economy: "mildly stimulant not restrictive"10:45 rate cut: "has not entered my mind" 1/2 #FED ..

[han @HanafyTrading]

Frustrating. Only monetized half at the lows - which were a fair bit above where I hoped we could go today #IWasWrong. Flat on everything and wound up making peanuts on the puts w/ vol doing nothing. Ah well, I'll take the singles too, it's not just about the XBH's #Natgas

[han @HanafyTrading]

@Holy_Helicity Lacked the courage to sell futs <= $3....until just now. All good, glitches like this pop to $3 happen all the time. It's a thing....#Natgas

[han @HanafyTrading]

Covered 30% of the SPY puts ref $244.25 which pays for all the puts I bought yesterday on everything- everything lol. Covered 75% of AAPL puts ref $142.5 but added 147/136 PS for 01/11 expo. Violent though not unjustified #SPY #CL #VOL #VIXX Lets see if 2450 SPX holds

[han @HanafyTrading]

Little out of my comfort zone but short #WTI #CL here at $47.60. Also bought a lot (A LOT!) of puts on indices and equities around 2510 S&P - all expiring by next Friday. Curious how long this global-detachment can overwhelm. Betting not much longer obviously lol.

[han @HanafyTrading]

@N565UA I think it's cute but the result is inevitable with G/J printing +.30. However I think 2.88 is a great short covering level - I covered half of what I sold at $3 this morning to respect the chart. On unch data we see $2.70 before $3.10.