Spin Master

Natural gas & weather. Sometimes pretend I have a clue in other markets.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@6MPK Did you just mark the top? 😆

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@firstenercast Someone tell the production to show up.

Maybe this weekend as NE gets some demand?

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@epawawx Well it definitely is NOT Nov 1997, as that month was cold, not very warm like this Nov.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@webberweather @snewenglandwx I don't get why this is hard to understand. In ANY pattern, you will get brief periods that deviate from the favored base state. Time will tell if this is a change that has staying power, or if we just revert back to the regularly scheduled base state.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@BigJoeBastardi What?? 😂😂😂😂😂

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@WMitchell618 🤔

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@WMitchell618 I did see that a few days ago, and was like, WTF? No room at all for ANY variability. I think said vendor is around 450 now, which may still wind up too low.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@WMitchell618 Ha. I would hope that, by now, no one is claiming Novy's HDD total will be just 395. That looks way off.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@Wxdude518 @DiveBomb321 @dddonnnaaa I'll assume you have actual, verifiable stats to post that substantiate this claim, rather than just a "feeling". This is not my observation.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

Meant to say Z26 contract.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

HH trades $3.04 on ICE.

A few cents up vs Friday's close.

#natgas

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@DiveBomb321 @dddonnnaaa I don't have actual stats, but it doesn't feel to me like that is the case, at least so far. In my judgment, the errors are pretty similar to what they have been.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@bam_weather @bobbyFNGB @justbooket Weather isn't an easy business. I respect, and am happy for, anyone in the biz who is able to succeed with it. The inexact nature of the science is precisely what keeps things interesting.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@rob240013 @russ83178 @bam_weather I’m not trying to belittle BAM. I’ve not followed them closely. I’m just pointing out that the pattern still looks very much like what a strong El Niño should look like. One cooler window doesn’t mean much.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@russ83178 @bam_weather I literally just showed how the 11-15 in model land has been biased TOO COOL more often than not. One 3-day cooler window doesn’t change anything.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@bam_weather Bias of models has been to be too cool in the 11-15 more often than not for quite awhile (except West). One brief cooler period just doesn’t get me excited. Then again, my focus is #natgas, not a little snow in one’s backyard. Different priorities. 😆

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

I'm sure someone will say, "but models missed next weekend's chill!". Sure. But they have tended to be too cool in the 11-15 for the last month, especially the GEFS, so... 🤷‍♂️

#weather #natgas #ElNino

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@AgWxMan1 @PLeg66 Historically, same here.

But not today’s version of R.

I need folks with an IQ at least greater than a head of lettuce that isn’t all about corruption and control.

Once MAGA is purged, and some shred of common sense comes back, I shall return.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@AgWxMan1 @PLeg66 Told you, I’m no fan of the far left. There are plenty of legit gripes about their policies.

All I’m saying is there has never been more collective stupidity, and anything remotely close, in any group on the planet than we’ve seen in “MAGA”. That’s all.

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

@ShaIenden Hmmm, the RNGFS. Maybe we can have it changed to that? 😁

[Spin Master @Holy_Helicity]

A lot of hullabaloo here on Twitter about a big cold shift in the weather pattern. As of right now, this "big shift" amounts to 3-4 days of just normal to a bit cooler than normal, then right back warm. Exciting? You be the judge. 🤷‍♂️

#weather #natgas #ElNino