Brutal earnings day. Names got cut 7 to 14% in a single session. So heres the real question. When a name you like gaps down that hard, do you buy the flush the same day, or wait for it to sweep the low and reclaim before you touch it? Whats your actual rule?
@amitisinvesting Not buying day one. A -14% flush like $TSLA doesnt bottom on the first green candle, it bottoms when it sweeps todays low and reclaims it. Same for $GOOGL. The oil bid you flagged adds pressure. I want the reclaim, not the falling knife. Let it print a higher low first.
While everyone watched the earnings flush, oil ripped. $USO +5.9% today, but $SPY fell 1.3% and even $GLD dropped 2%. Thats a supply shock, not clean risk off. The tell: $XLE energy stocks only went +0.4%. Equities dont believe the oil spike holds yet. Watch that gap.
@dividendology The problem is the tape already told the story. $GOOGL closed -7% on great numbers because it went in with zero room for error. When expectations are maxed, good isnt good enough, only a blowout clears it. Price trades the bar that was set, not the results.
Your entry is never the news, its the wick. A long wick into a level is the whole map. Fib it 0, 0.5, 1. React before the 0.5 and the level holds, thats your bounce. Dig past the 0.5 and expect the trade through. Same read on every timeframe. Read the wick, stop guessing.
@CredibleCrypto 20 months and -78% on $DOGE is real capitulation, thats when levels start to matter again. But first touch after a bleed like that rarely holds clean. The tell is the sweep. Wick under the zone that reclaims = accumulation, body close through = the knife keeps going.
The earnings tell played out. $GOOGL went in priced for perfection and lost 7% on the print. $TSLA bled in weak and still dropped 14%. Both dragged the tape, $META -3.4%, $MSFT -2.2% in sympathy. Leaders report, the whole complex trades the reaction.
@unusual_whales The tape voted before the print. $TSLA bled into earnings all week at a 3 month low, that was the tell. The number was never the trade, the level reaction is. Down 14% and now we see who actually steps in at the range low.
$SMCI gapped +23% this morning. Called it yesterday, the $60B in orders was the headline but the margin guide from 8% toward 15-17% was the real story. The bear case that AI server assembly is low margin commodity work just died. Gaps like this get bought day one, not faded.
@TedPillows This is the tell. Price grinding up while open interest bleeds lower on your own chart means the move is spot, not degen longs. Add coins leaving the exchanges and you get a rally with a floor under it. Euphoria is where you fade. This isnt that yet.
$BTC end of day check. Reclaimed 65k overnight, broke the range this morning, and held 66k all day. Range 65,096 to 66,934. Thats what a real breakout looks like, no fade back into the level. $ETH quietly holding 1,926 too. Follow through, not a fakeout.
@KobeissiLetter The $60B in orders is the headline, but the margin guide is the real story. $SMCI took gross margins from 8% toward 15-17%. The whole bear case was AI server assembly being low margin commodity work. Double the margin and that thesis is dead. Thats the gap, not the revenue.
Closing bell. The junk led and it held. $MU +12%, $INTC +8.6%, $AMD +8.1%, $COIN +9.5% all closed green. $QQQ +1.8%. Meanwhile $GOOGL -1.4% and $MSFT -1.2% got left behind. Risk bought the beta and ignored the safe names. $TSLA and $GOOGL report tomorrow.
@AndrewHiesinger $32M in calls against $5M puts is a 6 to 1 lean into the print, and $TSLA is at a 3 month low. Thats the crowd already positioned for the beat. If it delivers, gamma squeeze. If it misses, all that premium unwinds and adds to the flush. Loaded both ways.
Power hour tell. The leaders are HOLDING, not fading.
$MU +12.6%, $INTC +8.4%, $AMD +8.1% into the bell.
On a junk-led pump day, when the high beta names dont give it back into the close, thats accumulation, not a daytrade squeeze. Closes matter more than opens.
@MichaelPBento 747 is the whole pivot. Key tell: does it lose 747 clean, or sweep it and reclaim? A wick under 747 that reclaims is a higher low and your 750 run. A body close under and 742 becomes the magnet like you said. The reaction, not the level, gives it away.
Watch what is bid today.
Stocks ripping, $QQQ +1.9%. But so is silver, $SLV +4.6%, and gold $GLD +2%.
When risk assets AND the fear hedges go up together, thats not risk on. Thats liquidity looking for a home in everything at once. The debasement trade, quietly running.
@TedPillows Spot buying plus coins leaving the exchanges is the combo you want. BlackRock just pulled $119M of $BTC off Coinbase Prime today. Real demand hitting a shrinking float is how you get a breakout that actually holds, not a leverage wick.
Risk on tape today, so heres the question.
$TSLA bounced hard into its print. $GOOGL faded into its. Both report tomorrow after the close.
You can only hold ONE through earnings. Which one and why?