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SpaceX isn't launching in a vacuum.
When investors consider valuation they create a set of public comps, using data from existing companies to triangulate the value of a new one. VCs do this for nearly every company they invest in. The public markets are no different.
It doesn't require a crystal ball to see the future just exceptional data (and a bit of luck)
founders treat vc rejections as an explicit judgement of everything they've ever done being worth 0
vcs reject founders as an asset allocation decision
"AI for ___" companies aren't getting funded in the growth stages.
May's Series B money went to atoms, foundational models, and datacenters.
🧠 Isomorphic Labs: $2.1B for AI foundational models and pipelines for drug design
🛰️ Cowboy Space: $275M for data centers in space
🛡️ Amca: $300M for aerospace & defense hardware with rapid prototyping
🎥 Decart: $300M for real-time AI models that turn live video into interactive worlds
Along with "smaller" rounds funding the terawatts of energy this revolution needs from nuclear fusion (Thea Energy, $100M) and ocean energy (Panthalassa, $140M).
nothing would change venture more than founders being willing to cold email VCs for their As
and for VCs to treat those emails with the same credibility as a warm connect
john d. rockefeller would end his work day in the afternoon.
he had a large family with whom he spent a lot of time.
he built one of the largest businesses in history in one of the most competitive industries the world's ever known.
The 3 biggest Series As last week were all deep tech:
🧬 @RetroBio_ ($1B): @sama's longevity bet using AI-designed proteins to reprogram old cells into young ones, with a goal of adding 10 healthy years to human life. First Alzheimer's trial already dosing.
�� @FocusedEnergy_1 ($240M): building the world's first industrial laser fusion plant on a decommissioned RWE nuclear site in Germany, with the utility itself writing a $60M check.
🛰️ @oursky ($90M): a global network of 40+ ground telescopes that tracks satellites and debris in orbit creating the optical "operating layer" for an increasingly contested space, run by an ex-SpaceX engineer.
Feels like we're definitely living in the future.