Harvey Speculator

Former Flash Boy, now Flash Man, decade of experience at one of the most active trading shops in the US.
Tweets are opinions only, not financial advice.

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@MaxxChatsko $HOG

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@NToola9 Interest rates at 0 pushes everybody out to the edge of the risk curve, ie SPACs and pre-revenue biotech. First thing to get off-loaded when it’s time to de-risk.

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

$NRXP $RLFTF

[Senator Ron Johnson @SenRonJohnson]

EUAs for Big PHARMA’s Remdesivir, COVID vaccines, Mulnupiravir, & Paxlovid. What about Zyesami, a drug that is saving lives through Right to Try? What does @FDA @NIH have against drugs that save lives?

They must answer 4 members of Congress’ questions.
https://t.co/EPvmQmCkWQ

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@WangReynold That is unclear from the content of the release, which anyone who has followed NRXP over the last 18 months is intimately familiar with. I’m going by the explicitly stated patient number, which is supported by this recent email from the principal investigator. @DrSamuelBrown

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

Activ-3B progress reported by $NRXP:
Aug 18 - 140 patients
Sept 29 - 232 patients
Nov 2 - 300 patients
Dec 14 - 348 patients
Feb 15 - 448 patients

Backing into the rate of enrollment (~1.6 patients/day), full enrollment target around mid-June.

https://t.co/VWaQvBtfON

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

Cautiously optimistic that the addition of international sites could speed enrollment, with the primary driver being lower rates of early Remdesivir administration outside of the US. That said, I view mid-June as the base case, with LPLV near the end of September.
$NRXP

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@MedicalStonks @JosephR01262703 👀

[U.S. FDA @US_FDA]

FDA issued an EUA for a new monoclonal antibody for the treatment of #COVID19 that retains activity against the omicron variant. https://t.co/JffIERTspM

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@Neophius Sotrovimab was shut down despite showing marginal benefit, just not of a significant enough magnitude.

They are clearly seeing some benefit in order to recommend continuing to enroll Activ-3b.

https://t.co/IUzcsKgCLc

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

The drug works. $NRXP $RLFTF

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@Neophius “The companies were informed that while VIR-7831 met initial pre-specified criteria to continue to the next phase of the ACTIV-3 trial and there were no reported safety signals, sensitivity analyses of the available data raised concerns about the magnitude of potential benefit.”

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

Word is starting to get out, finally. The world can’t ignore this drug forever.
$NRXP $RLFTF

https://t.co/jI2m9fwgxq

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@Massta2015 @Jeff85917228 This is true, we should get another datapoint in the next couple weeks.

The main reason I have hope for the international sites to enroll quicker is because to my knowledge early Remdesivir use is not as ubiquitous abroad as it is in the US.

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

32 year old, 27 weeks pregnant in the ICU with Covid. On the verge of needing to be intubated, 3 infusions of Aviptadil brought her back to room air in 6 days.

Both mother and baby survived. Remarkable stuff.
$NRXP $RLFTF

https://t.co/VUFyUWxUmB

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@NToola9 TLD expected some time in February?

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@NToola9 Appreciate that and I agree with you.

One of the roadblocks for Activ-3b is that it excludes anyone who has had Remdesivir. The % of patients who make it to critical without getting Rem doesn’t amount to much.

I saw Activ-5 finally reached target enrollment. 👀

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

@Jeff85917228 Activ-3B progress has been reported as follows:
Aug 18 - 140 patients
Sept 29 - 232 patients
Nov 2 - 300 patients
Dec 14 - 348 patients

Target is 640 patients, and international trial sites should open in Q1 that may help speed up enrollment.

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

In addition to the radiographic images, pay attention to the CRP and IL-6 levels before and after treatment begins.

$NRXP $RLFTF

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

$NRXP $RLFTF

https://t.co/jVFJkKYf8S

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

Both pills approved as expected. $VIR down almost 25% this week is a Christmas blessing for anyone still hoping to accumulate.

Sitting with ~$1b cash on the balance sheet and one of the most valuable assets in the fight against Covid 19.

[Harvey Speculator @HarveySpecTrade]

PSA: The only approved MAB that has been shown to still be effective against Omicron is on sale today at a 16% discount to yesterday's close. Scaling in, as I expect the approval of PFE and MRK pills could cause more short-term noise, but pose only marginal competition.
$VIR