What if the wars, pandemics, geopolitical drama, inflation, bank bailouts, corrupt politicians, broken institutions, fiat money printing, and the general collapse of Western civilization… are all just cover for a few people trying to accumulate all the bitcoin?
Brother, I rode my bicycle home from Perry’s Pizza and hit a parked car (then carried the bike the rest of the way home). I woke up in my bedroom with the light on and full daylight outside.
About 10 years later I’m playing in my member guest at my country club and I’m paired with the Four Loko founder and Andre Ethier lol.
Right, but follow that logic. If payback only happens for miners plugged in during short windows, then mining is a timing trade wearing an infrastructure costume, and the benchmark stops being payback and becomes DCA. Take the last epoch at 7c power and ~$20/TH hardware, typical hosted economics, and the boring daily spot buy out-stacked the machine the whole way through. That was not true in 2016 or 2019 when mining beat buying almost across the board. The edge didn’t disappear but it compressed to a tiny cohort with very cheap power buying at capitulation. So where does your model put the line, at what hosted rate does the machine still beat DCA over a full epoch?
Believe it or not I'm bullish mining too, I own and operate sites. I just think this last run was a weird manipulated cycle, ETF and treasury company flows pulled the top forward and muted the blow-off, and now this cycle gets fully rinsed before the setup you're describing can form. Genuine question though: what's your average hashprice for 2027 under your scenario? Not the spike print, the average. That number is the whole trade.
Right, and the strike keeps moving against you. At today's prices a new machine earns back its cost in about 10 years while its useful life is 4, so the box itself is guaranteed to lose money.
What you're actually buying is a slow drip of bitcoin at a discount to spot, and the trade only works if you hold the coins and the discount survives the next halving. Anyone underwriting the purchase on dollar revenue is buying a depreciating annuity that never matures