Jeremy Havardi

A historian, journalist and political analyst based in London. Proud Zionist and opponent of modern identity politics. Writer of books and articles.🇮🇱

[Haviv Rettig Gur @havivrettiggur]

Welp, I think we're done here.

Trump himself is now saying he buckled under the pressure of Hormuz.

It's as bad as it could possibly be. He's saying aloud that Iran can have anything it wants because America can't afford the staring contest.

If this is his own explanation in his own words, then the fact that the sanctions relief is front-loaded...suddenly becomes important. The fact that the inspections regime that will verify compliance will be negotiated by an American side that has already admitted defeat, that needs this more than the opponent needs it...is now significant. And the fact that the proxy system is now recognized as legitimate by the United States -- is suddenly exactly the disaster you feared it might be.

And the fact that America has declared aloud that it's not actually capable of imposing its will even in the world's most vital energy chokepoints, causing its allies in the Gulf to already begin to seek a new accommodation with Iran -- makes all of this worse than Obama and worse than the JCPOA.

Remember: the great unfixable flaw of the JCPOA that none of its boosters ever had a good answer for was that it merely kicked the can down the road. It solved nothing.

Trump's deal, as of this moment, is not even close to accomplishing so much.

"Iran never won a war and never lost a negotiation," Trump famously said of Obama's deal (as a reporter reminded him at today's press conference). Ironic that the Iranians would win a negotiation most spectacularly against a man who styles himself the greatest negotiator to ever grace the White House.

So what does it all mean?

It means that in the coming years, nuclear programs will sprout like mushrooms after the rain throughout the Middle East. It means that many nations will now build out new and larger ballistic missile arsenals.

It means that the state system will give way before the march of the region's transnational ideological axes. Minorities will again be trampled, new wars will be fought by stronger states to dominate the power vacuums within weaker ones.

You're thinking of Israel in Lebanon -- but that's just a specific campaign against a specific enemy. Think Turkey, which right now occupies a region of Syria vastly larger than Israel's presence in Lebanon. Think heightened Iranian support for the Houthis in Yemen and a new influx of money and guns to the different sides in Libya.

It means, in other words, that we will have a few more wars to fight, a few more technologies to invent to deal with this new age of cheap missiles and drones -- and also of supersonic Chinese missiles bearing nuclear warheads that Iran will eventually, inevitably, be capable of deploying against us.

And it didn't have to be this bad. (And maybe, when he's heard all the criticism, it won't be.) He could have left something, anything, to concede later. He could have kept the Iranians a little bit in the dark, just a smidgen, as to just how defeated America feels.

Israel's position in all this is simple, and more or less unchanged from last week. America gave us more than we had a right to ask for. But we may be going it alone from here out.

Dust off the nukes. Maybe test one somewhere far away from anywhere. Quadruple the interceptor production lines, double the size of the Mossad and the Air Force. And no, don't let Hezbollah breathe, not for a second.

It's the 1960s again. And Israel will have to defeat a couple more enemies before it can once again eke out a few decades of peace.

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

100% there is no genocide in Gaza. No eradication project. People confused about what the word means is culturally appalling and dangerous for the future of western society. The confusion has indeed been engineered by people know what they are doing. No genocide does not mean simply too much death and destruction in war. It is about intent and action to destroy a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group, in whole or in part. Sam Harris @MakingSenseHQ is spot on.

[Steve Reed @SteveReedMP]

A holocaust denier is now an elected councillor. Reform should never have put someone who holds these abhorrent views forward for public office and should now take immediate disciplinary action. Anti-semitism is racism and has no place in our politics.

[Deborah E. Lipstadt @deborahlipstadt]

@JewishNewsUK @JewishChron were I in the UK i would be marching with you. From across the pond, I stand with you….

[Jake Wallis Simons @JakeWSimons]

Who did this

[Kosher @koshercockney]

Will never get tired of sharing this.

Never forget that @SecRubio called the Iran situation 11 years ago.

He analysed it and predicted it.

Like a play-by-play, to a tee.
The accuracy is absolutely mind-blowing.

It’s worth sharing again, because there are still some people out there that shout things like “Iran did not have an imminent Nuclear Bomb” or they “didn’t pose an immediate threat”

They need to watch this and understand the truth of the situation.

11 years ago this man predicted where we are now.

For me, there is no better choice for the next President of the United States.

[Jeremy Havardi @HavardiJeremy]

@BoardofDeputies @JayWeatherill @ElisabethBowes @PhilR_R @AusHouseLondon I am pleased that your meeting, unlike ours, went ahead. Hope it was productive.

[Jeremy Havardi @HavardiJeremy]

@JayWeatherill I would love to say that B’nai B’rith UK had a good meeting to discuss the terrible crisis of antisemitism in Australia. Sadly, we arrived and left 30 mins later and no one could explain why the meeting was off. We are perplexed as to what went wrong.

[Shahrar Ali @ShahrarAli]

Piss poor take from Polanski in London Assembly chamber. In a debate on Iran, he supports a comparison made between killing Khamenei and making a matyr of the Pope. Another speaks with horror at this comparison.

[Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر @emilykschrader]

“If you expected me to say I hate it, I don’t. Sorry…You cannot name one horrible thing that has happened in the Middle East in the last 50 years and not connect it to this fascist theocracy!”

- @billmaher

[David J Harris Jr @DavidJHarrisJr]

Guest on Piers Morgan SHUTS DOWN Dave Smith’s claim that only Israel wants this war. 🔥

“It is perfectly possible for multiple people to align in a shared goal.”

“It isn't just the Iranian people, it isn't just the Israeli people. If you do not eliminate the Islamic regime, you end up in a forever war that ultimately implicates the US. And so if you don't want war, you take out this regime.”

[Nicole Lampert @nicolelampert]

Moving post from the inspirational Iranian @elicalebon who wonders why Western media is still parroting Islamic Republic propaganda.
‘Whose side are you on?’ she asks. Good question.

[Masih Alinejad @AlinejadMasih]

To you, Zohran Mamdani! You stayed quiet when we have faced massacre, when Islamic Republic assassins were sent here in New York to kill us, stay quiet now!

STOP lecturing us Iranians about peace.

I don’t feel safe in New York listening to someone like you, Mamdani, who sympathizes with the regime that killed more than 30,000 unarmed Iranians in less than 24 hours. You talk about “safety” of this beautiful city? Listen carefully; Safety without justice means nothing.
We Iranians do not allow you to lecture us about war while you had nothing to say when the Islamic Republic shot schoolgirls and blinded more than 10,000 innocent people in the streets. You were busy celebrating the hijab while women of my beloved country Iran were jailed and raped by Islamic Security forces for removing it. And NOW you find your voice to defend the regime? No. I will not let you claim the moral high ground.
The people of Iran want to be free. Where were you when they needed solidarity?

New York belongs to people who stand against terrorism not those who excuse it.

This city is stronger than fear.
Stronger than propaganda.
Stronger than you think.

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

BREAKING:

In Tehran, people are cheering and celebrating amid reports of Khamenei's death.

[Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh]

Lie by damned lie, unraveling.

[Kosher @koshercockney]

This is an absolute MASTERCLASS on how to talk to Anti-Israel idiots.

By @havivrettiggur

[Heidi Bachram @HeidiBachram]

💥 NOW: Pro-Pals march through London chanting “Say it clear, say it loud. Khamenei makes us proud.”

Despicable ghouls.

[פלר חסן נחום Fleur Hassan-Nahoum @FleurHassanN]

Our last hostage is home. No man left behind. Israeli soldiers pray as we bring home Ran Gvili 🙌🏽 #AmIsraelChai

[Mark Dubowitz @mdubowitz]

You cannot defeat a nation that will go to such extraordinary lengths to bring home its people — and that fuses ancient faith with modern power. Israel’s enemies would be wise to beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks, and finally choose peace.

[Vivid.🇮🇱 @VividProwess]

Please share this video. Make it go viral.

The people of Iran are being brutally silenced through executions.

The world must not look away.

Stand with the people of Iran.

#FreeIran