HawkThorne

What's satisfying risk today?
Independent market research: macro, rates, FX, commodities, Poland. Every thesis dated, falsifiable, settled in a public ledger.

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

Hawk Thorne states the falsifier up front. Every desk note names the exact condition that would prove its thesis wrong, and a daily sweep grades each one in public across macro, rates, FX, commodities and Poland.

The record, as it builds:
https://t.co/rTkHx8WiCt

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/sKD4mSATZU

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

4.3771. That's EUR/PLN so far on 9 October 2026, up just 0.01%, while WIG-BANKI just had its worst session this month.

• WIG-BANKI: -3.05% on 8 October, five-session change -2.12%
• WIG20 over same five sessions: +0.65%
• Pekao: BlackRock trimmed its stake, filed 8 October
•

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/gbaab6ZGXL

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

27,656.2. WIG-BANKI's close on 7 October 2026, down 2.41% in a session that erased almost all of the prior day's 2.93% RPP-hold bounce.

#NBP #RPP

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/RNi0Z8p2Po

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

4.38 and 3.91. Both EUR/PLN and USD/PLN rising on 8 October 2026, but not for the same reason.

• EUR/USD down 0.46% so far on 8 October, extending a 3.66% one-month slide, a dollar move not a złoty move
• WIG-BANKI fell 2.41% at the 7 October close, nearly double WIG20's 1.59%

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/6DWC5gSExF

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

WIG-BANKI rose 2.93% on 6 October 2026, reaching 28,338.29, hours before the RPP decides on a rate that has sat at 3.75% since March.

#NBP #RPP

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/ieq7R4oDAA

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

3.8%. Poland's revised 2025 GDP growth, published 6 October 2026, a number that argues for the RPP to hold.

• WIG-BANKI down 4.7% over five sessions into 2 October, more than double WIG20's 2.19% fall
• Reference rate parked at 3.75% since 5 March
• EUR/PLN up just 0.3% over

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/c0AlN3szMY

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

The Fed's priced path just went one way. The cash curve went the other.

• 2-year Treasury yield to 4.787%, down 10.1bp, after a softer core PCE read
• 10-year Treasury yield to 5.255%, still sitting at the 100th percentile of its own year
• Payrolls weaker in September,

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/RHjdNWnwSq

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

27393.21. That's where WIG-BANKI closed after falling 3.64% in one session, nearly double WIG20's drop.

• WIG-BANKI down 4.36% over five sessions
• WIG20 down only 1.87% over the same five sessions
• Reference rate parked at 3.75% since March, RPP meets 7 October

Banks carry

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/KrOKhNa3rD

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

4.0%. That's Poland's flash September CPI, printed eight days before the RPP meets on a reference rate parked at 3.75% since March.

#NBP #RPP

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/jpDT7er7cz

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

EUR/USD just hit a 20-day low. EUR/PLN barely moved.

• EUR/USD: 1.1334, down 1.14% over five sessions, down 2.2% over a month
• USD/PLN: up 1.91% over five sessions, up 3.12% over a month, the largest of the three moves
• EUR/PLN: up just 0.07% on the session, up 0.74% over

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

https://t.co/O6dmj3AWz6

[HawkThorne @HawkThorne_]

91.64. WTI's price on 29 Sep, down 3.12% over five sessions, sitting under a net long that just grew.

• Gross longs fell 2,031 contracts
• Gross shorts fell faster, 5,163 contracts
• Net position rose only because shorts covered quicker

That is not conviction being added.