HFR

Catholic Faith, Father, East Central Kansas Farmer, Kansas State Grad.

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@OhMyNotAgain99 @SecRollins @POTUS What’s that supposed to mean? Don’t understand. I’m not worried about Trump family I’m concerned about farming and making a living off it. This has been going on for along time under multiple presidents. Has nothing to do with what party you belong to

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@kscorn Sorry. USDA isn’t going to revise corn yields to much lower. They can’t . All hell would break loose. If anything they will manipulate another number like feed and residual use, stocks or less acres.

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@SecRollins @WhiteHouse @POTUS What’s wrong with high beef prices?

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

The chart shows hedge funds, which had built a record bullish bet in corn, now unwinding it quickly. That selling is a big part of why corn has dropped, and it probably isn't finished.

What it shows:
- **How big the bet got.** Funds went from slightly net short in July to about 415,000 contracts net long in early September, the largest position on the chart and above 2021 and 2022.
- **How fast they're getting out.** By Oct 6 they were down to about 330,000 contracts. That was before Friday's bearish USDA report, which likely set off more selling. Friday's fund-positions report only runs through Tuesday, so it won't show that.
- **How far they could still go.** In every other year on the chart, funds were somewhere between −200,000 and +250,000 in October. They're still heavily long, so there's a lot more they could sell if the market keeps falling.

What it means for you:
- **Near term, expect more pressure.** With a 1.85 billion bushel carryout and harvest rolling, funds have little reason to hold on, and their selling could keep weighing on Dec corn for a few weeks.
- **Once the selling runs its course, the bottom may be close.** When funds are mostly out, there's less selling left, and rallies can come quickly on any bullish news, like South American weather or strong exports. In past years, prices often bottomed after funds had sold heavily.
- **For your unpriced corn,** this argues against chasing the market lower. I'd set price targets for bounces and wait for the fund-positions report to show their long position well below 200,000 contracts.

These numbers are my read of the chart. I'll keep tracking the weekly fund numbers in your Friday briefs.

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@MelanieJETG @laralogan Couldn’t find anywhere where that has happened in US. Not saying it hasn’t. You have some examples of it happening when and where?

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@dondank69 @redpillb0t Did you read the study?

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@SecRollins @POTUS Farmers are still far from break even

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@SecRollins @POTUS Really??? I don’t think that’s the case.

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@LibTearCreator1 I can name the movie! Dumb and dumber

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

The truth about Roundup (whose active ingredient is glyphosate) and cancer is that scientific assessments remain divided, with no full global consensus, though the weight of regulatory opinion leans against it being a clear cause of cancer in typical use.

### Key Positions from Major Authorities
- In 2015, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), part of the World Health Organization (WHO), classified glyphosate as "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A). This was based on:
- Limited evidence in humans (mainly associations with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, or NHL).
- Sufficient evidence in lab animals.
- Strong evidence of genotoxicity (DNA damage) and other mechanisms.

IARC has not changed this classification, and it remains their stance.

- In contrast, major regulatory agencies responsible for pesticide approvals and safety have consistently concluded that glyphosate is not likely to be carcinogenic to humans when used as directed. These include:
- U.S. EPA (most recent reviews reaffirm "not likely to be carcinogenic," disagreeing explicitly with IARC's conclusion and citing a larger dataset of studies).
- European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and European Chemicals Agency (ECHA).
- Health Canada, Australian Pesticide and Veterinary Medicines Authority, Japanese authorities, and the Joint FAO/WHO Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR).

These bodies emphasize that IARC's hazard-based approach differs from risk-based assessments (which consider real-world exposure levels), and they often point to more animal studies and other data not fully weighed by IARC.

### Epidemiological and Mechanistic Evidence
Some epidemiological studies (especially meta-analyses) show an association between high occupational exposure to glyphosate-based herbicides and increased risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (e.g., around 41% higher in highly exposed groups in certain reviews). However, other analyses find no clear causal link or inconsistent results. Animal studies are mixed—some show tumors at high doses, others do not—and recent long-term rodent studies (e.g., from 2025) have reported dose-related tumors, supporting IARC's view, while regulators often discount them due to dose relevance or study design.

Mechanistic evidence (e.g., genotoxicity, oxidative stress, inflammation) exists in some studies, but regulators generally find it insufficient to prove human cancer risk at typical exposures.

### Litigation and Public Debate
Thousands of lawsuits claim Roundup caused NHL, with Bayer (which acquired Monsanto) paying billions in settlements and verdicts (over $10–11 billion resolved so far, with ~60,000+ cases still active as of early 2026). In February 2026, Bayer proposed a $7.25 billion class settlement to resolve many current and future claims (for exposures before mid-February 2026), though it requires court approval and faces challenges. Juries have awarded large sums in some cases, but Bayer maintains the product is safe and appeals often reduce awards. A key U.S. Supreme Court case on federal preemption (whether EPA approval blocks state failure-to-warn claims) is pending and could impact future litigation.

In short: If you're asking from a regulatory safety perspective (e.g., for approved use in farming or home), most government bodies say glyphosate/Roundup is unlikely to cause cancer. If you're looking at hazard identification or certain independent studies/litigation evidence, there's credible concern—particularly for heavy, prolonged exposure—linking it to NHL. The debate stems partly from differing evaluation methods (hazard vs. risk) and influence from industry, advocacy groups, and study funding sources on both sides.

For personal decisions (e.g., using it in your yard), many opt for caution by minimizing exposure or choosing alternatives, especially given the ongoing scientific discussion.

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@ValerieAnne1970 @RobertKennedyJr @drmarkhyman That’s disinformation. Been farming in Kansas for 35 years nobody sprays wheat to kill it. The hot summers sun and wind dries it out.

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@UGroin230262 @ValerieAnne1970 No it’s not

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@ValerieAnne1970 Im a wheat farmer in Kansas for over 30 years that is never done.

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@joeroganhq Been there done that. 100% agree with his message

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@elonmusk Totally

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@JesseBWatters https://t.co/PGiZ3v0sBu

[Johnny Midnight ⚡️ @its_The_Dr]

So you win the Superbowl and decide to destroy the City?

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@ClayTravis I understand it sucks, but soft.

[HFR @HaydenRanch]

@its_The_Dr Farmers should be one of your top priorities