Hazel Tradez

A trader’s journal — Here to organize thoughts and put the puzzle pieces together. Student of the markets. NFA

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The Fed hasn't hiked in more than three years and they could in two weeks.

That first hike isn't always a bad thing, but size appears to matter.

When the Fed hikes 0.25%, stocks still see early weakness, but never lower a year later.

A 0.50% hike to start things off and all bets are off.

[Bluekurtic Market Insights @Bluekurtic]

Believe it. The S&P 500 has now gone 900+ days without a 20% bear market drawdown. If the AI era rhymes with the dot-com boom, we may not even be a third of the way through this streak.

In the 1990s, the index went 3,102 days without a 20% drawdown.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The current bull market is 3.8 years old.

As we've noted many times, once a bull gets to three years old, they usually last many, many more years. This one isn't looking any different than history.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

July tried, but finished down 0.1%.

Prepare to hear a LOT about this from the bears, but down in June and July has been weak for the rest of the year historically.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

We are pretty close to some of the very best quarters when looking at a 4-year presidential cycle. Don't lose faith just yet.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Three days in a row with more than 300 advancers on the S&P 500.

Super rare stuff here.

[Linda Raschke @LindaRaschke]

Learned this rule on the floor 45 years ago and it still holds true 90% of the time (or so it seems): "If a stock does not trade into its GAP area the next 4 days, it can continue in the direction of the gap for 2 weeks. can see how this worked perfecetly the past two months on big blue!

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

This is all you need to do to make millions in the stock market. Save this. Screenshot it. You will need it.

1. VIX above 35: buy aggressively
- High-beta tech, growth, small caps
- Every single time the VIX spiked above 35 since 2018 was a generational buying opportunity. COVID bottom. Oct 2022 bottom. Tariff crash. If you bought when everyone else was panicking, you made a fortune.

2. VIX 25 to 35: start scaling in
- Quality tech, financials, industrials, cyclicals
- This is where smart money starts building positions. Not all at once. Gradually. The fear is real but the opportunity is bigger.

3. VIX 15 to 25: hold
- Balanced: tech + defensives, dividend growers
- This is normal. Stay positioned. Don't chase, don't panic. Let your winners run.

4. VIX below 15: reduce exposure
- Rotate to: utilities, healthcare, staples, bonds
- This is when everyone is comfortable. Nobody is hedging. Nobody is worried. That's exactly when you should be.
- Every major crash in market history was preceded by the VIX sitting below 15 for weeks.

Right now the VIX is at 16. We're in the hold zone. Stay positioned but stay alert.
Bookmark this. The next time the VIX spikes above 35, don't freeze. Buy.

[Hazel Tradez @HazelTradez]

Setup Quality + Setup Quantity is a reflection of the market environment. If things continue like this I’ll be looking to aggressively put new positions on soon

[Steve Hilton @SteveHiltonx]

Primary Takeaways:

1. We were the most efficient campaign: Becerra spent 4 TIMES the money per vote. Steyer spent 67 times more! Shows that as governor I will be CAREFUL with your money.

2. Becerra campaign funded by “dark money,” corporate interests and super PACs.

3. We’ve amassed an army of over 80,000 individual donors, averaging around $70 per donation. Our campaign is truly GRASSROOTS!

We have real momentum heading into the general election. Change is Coming! ☀️

[Matt Caruso, CFA, CMT @Trader_mcaruso]

With the number of 52 week highs staying strong on the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges, this violent 3-day $QQQ drop is likely more about liquidating excessive leveraged longs (take a look at $KORU) than a break in the AI trade, and likely sets the floor for higher prices over the summer.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months.

You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later.

In fact, up more than 40% on average a year later. My oh my.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The S&P 500 soared 16.1% in April and May, the second best ever (only 2020 was better).

Here's the thing, after previous big gains (>10%), June has never been lower and the rest of the year added 18.6% on average.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

In late March it was a question of when, not if we moved into a bear.

We noted at the time that bear markets usually would decline 5% from ATH quite quickly and this one took more than a month-and-a-half to get there.

Looking back, it was another clue there was no bear coming.

[PBA @801010athlete]

Just my opinion but think mistake a lot of traders make is trying a name once w a stop and moving on vs tightening stops and trying it 2-4x to get it right.

There’s a reason you want in, it’s a leader likely. Leaders never make it easy.

My members will see me stalk a name and try it 3x w a smaller total loss than the 1 time buyer who moves on to likely less strong names.

[Valckrie @Valckrie]

$QQQ is gapping up 3% after the ceasefire news today

Looking at all 12 times this happened since 2011:

3M forward returns:
• 100% win rate
• +22% avg return
• Worst case: +3.4%

Big gaps usually mark turning points and major bottoms

[Hazel Tradez @HazelTradez]

A few observations - net lows drying up, pessimism high, reclaim of MAs, NASI oversold, fear and greed index 15, bases firming up. Weak opens and stronger closes. That said, Oil still elevated though and VIX needs to get under 18. Next 1-3 weeks very telling

[Hazel Tradez @HazelTradez]

@SRxTrades Undercut

[Hazel Tradez @HazelTradez]

@RichardMoglen @Deepvue Would love to try

[Hazel Tradez @HazelTradez]

This entire bull market pullbacks have been the best trades to take, more so than flags imo