Losing money hurts. It's painful to watch your portfolio take a dive, but the numbers don't matter until you choose to sell. If you have a long runway and avoid serious leverage, those same stocks plunging now will likely be much, much higher in years to come.
9 years ago I had my first $50k day. 7 years ago I had my first $100k day. 6 years ago I had my first $250k day. 4 years ago I had my first $1M+ day. Today I had my first $10M+ day. You can do it too.
I closed out my remaining shorts on $GLD and $SLV today. Just clawing back some dry powder after deploying substantial margin into the recent pullback and looking to continue to add to crypto exposure at these levels with the proceeds.
I'm in the new Market Wizards book!
This book series was a huge inspiration and motivation when I first read them in 2011 when I was struggling and being included myself is a massive honor, thanks to @jackschwager and @gfc4!
I'm also very lucky that I found two trading communities early in my journey @PradeepBonde and @IUTraders that in hindsight turned out to be Market Wizard factories!
India will never produce an NVIDIA, and it has nothing to do with talent. R&D is the purest form of investment, and the central bank has spent decades making investment the dumbest thing you can do with a rupee.
I've been surfing the semiconductor wave for a while now, reading 10-Ks for fun. Spent last month in the Bay Area and the gap between India and the US is not a gap; it's a different universe. Conversations about agentic AI and the next decade of hardware, with my boomer relatives Waymo-ing around SF and self-driving home on Tesla FSD like it's normal. Nobody there thinks any of this is remarkable; they already live in the future.
NVIDIA spends nearly twice as much on R&D as every listed company in India combined. Silicon Motion, the world's leading maker of NAND flash controllers and around since 1995, ploughs 29.7% of revenue back into R&D. Micron runs 10.2%, NVIDIA 9.9%, on revenue bases that dwarf anything we have. India Inc? 0.85% of turnover, and half our listed companies report zero R&D at all.
The easy move is to lambast our promoters and the dhandomaxxing capitalist class, or the foreign MNCs running India as a glorified offshoring unit, or the babus who fund nothing useful. Satisfying. But Wrong. The reason no rational Indian founder pours money into frontier R&D is that there is genuinely no payoff at the end of it. Why?
1. R&D compounds, and compounding punishes laggards. At the edge of science a 1-2% gain is a moat; Intel spent 20+ years performing impossible physics every 24 months because Moore's Law was the business model, and that consistency makes them one of the goated companies of all time even after they got mogged recently. NVIDIA lives the same way today: invent at the limit or cease to exist. If you're 50% behind, no quantum of innovation closes that. You never touch the high end. You stay a mass-market producer of things that already exist. India is precisely there.
2. The supply side is the real thesis, and it's monetary. Two decades of high inflation, high money-printing, high nominal rates. That regime subsidises consumption and taxes patience. R&D is the longest-duration, highest-variance bet on the board; it is the first thing a 8% risk-free rate kills. Frontier R&D only ever gets funded two ways: a psychopathically risk-tolerant capitalist with cheap capital, or a state with Stalin-grade control. The USSR took agrarian peasants to the first man in space in 20 years; China built its own version. India has neither the state capacity, the political will, nor the balance sheet to do that. So nobody does it.
Talent was never the bottleneck. Capital structure was. If you want a SpaceX or a TSMC born here, you need an environment where a conglomerate can deploy $10B and sleep at night: a low-rate regime that makes long-duration investment rational, IP and patent courts that actually function, and policy that doesn't get rewritten every 2-3 years on a minister's whim. Stability is the input. Innovation is the output.
Bay Area versus Bombay, we are several universes apart, and you cannot print your way across that distance; you can only compound your way there, and we've spent years optimising for the opposite. The gap won't be bridged. With luck, it narrows.
Reminder, the new Market Wizards book by @jackschwager and yours truly comes out on the 9th. Pre order at the links below. And here again are the X handles of the traders in the book.
Kristjan Kullamägi @Qullamaggie
Lance Breitstein @TheOneLanceB
Simon Russo @simonrusso__
Lukas Fröhlich @TheShortBear
Phil Goedeker @Tradestl
Kelvin Chiu @KC_SilverCape
Jason Berry @JasonHBerry
Kenny Sharkness of @smbcapital (Kenny has no public X account)
Rick Bandazian Jr. @Off_The_Tape
Order here: https://t.co/yJ9wjrvBZR
For discounted bulk orders (US only) go here: https://t.co/gJoKIF1FBx
Haven’t really used Tradingview other than checking vix dxy and equities..etc ever since i transitioned to @MMT_Official_ imho the best orderflow software in crypto and knowing @anthdm soon to be the best in all markets, yk slowly then all at once. Atas,sierra, deepcharts count yall days. There’s so much to study tbh lol + the best thing i genuinely liked the most is the aggregation of basically all exchanges out there
Funding Pips is one of my favourite CFD Prop Firms
I've done $119k in payouts with them - super reliable firm
So it's no surprise that they've paid out the most out of any Prop Firm on Prop Firm Match
Cool feature from Prop Firm Match, because usually if a firm is able to pay out a lot it means they'll be more reliable when you get funded with them
Strategy Creation:
Some notes I put together last year...
1. Do I fully understand how and why each strategy works and the contextual environment?
2a. Do I understand my trade execution strategies and can I explain clearly what I'm looking for?
2b. Have I back tested and forward-tested the strategy across multiple market cycles?
3. Do I know the expectancy and edge of each setup?
4. How will I monitor for strategy decay or changing market conditions?
5. Have I accounted for execution costs, slippage, and live market conditions?
6. Is my performance statistically sound (strong Calmar, Sortino, etc.) with a large sample, robust across regimes?
Unpopular opinion but trading has already been figured out, sorry...
You can't just come up with your "model" (😭) after trading for 6 months, especially if it's just an OHLC candlesticks chart with very limited data on it.
From orderflow, AMT, techinical analysis, the tools exist, you just need to master them and calibrate your brain properly.
Qullamaggie on Trading is Hard
“Trading is hard. There’s a reason ninety-nine percent of people who attempt trading fail. There’s a reason you really need a persistence. You need to know to take time to really study, set up what works, and you need to know you need to be able to manage bad periods. You know, even the best traders have drawdowns. It’s hard; it’s frustrating, it’s super difficult.”
PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF POSTING MTM SCREENSHOTS
We all see traders posting their profits regularly on twitter. This post is not about how geniune they are or not. Let's not get into it. It's about how posting regular profits affects the psychology of the trader posting it.
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One of my biggest regret in 2025 was missing CUPID.
I first noticed the stock around the first week of August, after it had already moved nearly 160% in about three months. Despite the sharp run up, the structure was clean. It respected key moving averages beautifully, moved smoothly without volatility, and showed strong relative strength at a time when the broader index itself wasn’t supportive.
I chose to ignore the tight range breakout back then, thinking it was too extended in the short term. From that point, the stock went on to rally another ~240%, maintaining the same clean behavior - respecting moving averages, avoiding choppiness, and offering multiple low risk entry opportunities over the next few months. I passed on each of them, repeatedly telling myself it was "extended"
In hindsight, what stands out is that the risk required for taking that trade was limited, just a 2–3% stop. That single decision could have meaningfully changed the year. Missing it hurts, but it’s an honest reminder of where the real responsibility lies.
What this reinforced for me is simple:
"If a stock shows all the right characteristics and offers a logical, tight stop, my job isn’t to judge how far it has already run. My job is to define risk, size the position correctly, and let the market decide the outcome"
There will always be trades we miss. That’s part of the game. But each miss carries a lesson and sometimes, those lessons are what prevent the same mistake from repeating in the future.