Tom Tobin

Healthcare Sector Head @Hedgeye

[Felix Wang, CFA @HedgeyeTech]

Few investors cared on $MRVL two months ago when we made the Bull pitch…now, it’s the most debated stock in semis. We have high conviction on their share gains in interconnectivity.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Software-development job postings cratered nearly 60% year-over-year in 2023.

They've now clawed all the way back into positive territory.

Computer science is still one of the fastest-growing degrees on campus, and these grads may be in better shape than the market assumed when ChatGPT first rolled out.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Companies stopped hiring college grads to save money.

Then one got a $500 million monthly bill from Claude.

Hedgeye's Matt Cooper @HedgeyeFins explains why the hiring freeze is reversing.

[OWL @owlowe1]

@HedgeyeHC @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeHealth Thanks Tom. Yet another idea that pays for Hedgeye sub multiple times.

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

@P_Remarks I am a bigger believer in the $ACHC turnaround. The arithmetic is less complicated than $UHS and old guard more reliable. $UHS is on our Short Bench and seems like a falling knife. Skeptical that $TALK users will convert to inpatient psych admissions. Maybe I am missing something. And #ACA is only a small part of a broader pullback across Medicare, Medicaid, Employer, and Consumer payors. I don't think they've been in phase to the downside like this before. ESI premium inflation is at 20 year highs which is bad. Acute care has a rough few years ahead in my view. Nobody mentioning #GLP headwinds to surgical volume yet which we expect as mass market weight loss comes online this summer.

[Jay @10009nyny]

@P_Remarks @HedgeyeHC has great work on them and $HCA

Likely part of the issue is yields

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

Refreshed $TXG tracking data we use to update our revenue model. Same data that kept us short from $70 to $7 and then long from $11 to $31. Quad Factor and Signal Strength are working, but the tracking data needs to pick up the pace! @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeHealth

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

The big advantage we have on $HCA isn't just solid fundamental research. Quad Factor Scoring, which is new and proprietary, tells us if the market will care and Signal Strength provides timing and conviction. The overlap is a powerful. @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye

[HF Foogazi @ZodiacCapital33]

@HedgeyeHC $hca BEAUTY

[HF Foogazi @ZodiacCapital33]

@HedgeyeHC $hca BEAUTY

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

We are refreshing our $DGX deck and adding $LH next Thursday June 4th at 10AM. Layering in the new GLP-1 tailwind analysis we presented yesterday plus updated HCM Forecasts, Quad Factor Scores, #AI proof moats, #AI tailwinds, and Direct-to-Medical-Consumer tailwinds. Both tickers are Long Bench (for now). Waiting on Signal Stength @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

@SamofAmerica @KeithMcCullough The US Medical Economy is more dynamic now than it has been in a very long time. Lots or overlapping and secular themes with lots of new winners and some new losers.

[Sam Rahman @SamofAmerica]

@KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeHC @HedgeyeHC en fuego with $TXG and the GLP-1 call

$LLY is a mega cap on the move

[Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972]

@mmosso @HedgeyeHC @KeithMcCullough See it in PINK

[Hedgeye Asset Management @HedgeyeAM]

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[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

I think this clip will age well: I moved $DGX from a Active Short to Long Bench 5/15/26. I chose Fundamentals and threw down a marker from when we get to promote this to an active long. @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough https://t.co/jWviKxd2cQ

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

#TheCall ; giving a sneak peak at our #GLP deck scheduled for 10AM today. Adding GLP winners and losers to Position Monitor that also agree with @KeithMcCullough on Signal Stength and line up with Quad Factor Scores. @HedgeyeHealth @Hedgeye

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

$DGX looking like an even better long as we work through #GLP-1 puts and takes. Lots of incremental testing but only a small impact on outpatient visits overall. @HedgeyeHealth

[Thoughts on Healthcare Markets and Tech @thoughtson_tech]

Spending reductions show up across BMI categories, but the population-level hospital savings case assumes sustained drug exposure, and that's where the employer ROI math gets complicated fast.

Prime Therapeutics' three-year data shows only 1-in-12 patients still on therapy after three years. Roughly 60% of lost weight returns within 12 months of stopping. So the hospital spending curve in that chart likely reflects a cohort still on drug, not a durable population-level effect you can bank on for actuarial modeling.

The employers who've figured this out are treating persistence as the core operational problem, not the coverage decision. That's why you're seeing 34% of covering employers now require dietitian or lifestyle program participation as a hard coverage gate, up from 10% the prior year. They're trying to buy adherence through behavioral conditions because the clinical benefit evaporates without it.

The more structurally interesting signal is that Lilly and Novo both launched direct-to-employer distribution channels in early 2026, Lilly's Employer Connect at $449 per dose bypassing PBM intermediaries entirely. Manufacturers clearly believe sustained employer relationships built around adherence programs generate more durable economics than optimizing rebate structures through PBMs. That's a bet on the persistence problem being solvable through the employer channel specifically.

The hospital spending reduction story is real in cross-sectional data. Whether it holds longitudinally depends entirely on who builds the infrastructure to keep patients on drug, and that question is largely unanswered right now.

More on the operating model employers are having to build around this: https://t.co/vlEGmHv5Jq

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

@CharlieBravo33 I agree. More than just a healthcare problem too.

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

“The OBBB cuts over $1 trillion from health programs — the largest rollback of federal support for healthcare in American history.” - Claude Project

[Tom Tobin @HedgeyeHC]

Mentioned this chart on The Call this morning; Hospital spending by BMI, Baseline vs #GLP-1 adoption. The shift reduces overall spending. We are presenting this and more on our "GLP-1 Consumption Cliff" call Thursday at 10AM. $NVO $LLY $HCA @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough