Henning Gard Aarnes

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 Iran has stated that if they can’t export oil, then none the Gulf shall. That is clearly not the case at the moment. As Iran has been quite forthright so far, wouldn’t this mean Iran would attack soon, to disrupt either of the two pipelines?

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@gbrew24 This is typically how a developer negotiates with a contractor.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@olaharaldmoen1 Proud-Nilsen😆

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 I meant that Trump has previously threatened others with assassination (like the Iranian negotiation team), thus then the principle should be applied to him and those media channels he use?

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 Was there logic from Trump in the first place? You give him too much credit.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 Keep up the good work👌

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 Would you care to elaborate as to how Trump will TACO og manipulate, in the current situation?
Disclosure: I am long oil/gas producers, as I doubt this will be solved any time soon.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 Trump has to win. That is the most important factor in American foreign policy now. He either needs a way to «sneak out» without appearing to loose, make a deal or win outright. I believe he will continue attacking. A volatile oil price on the way to victory.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 I am more astounded that people would make him their president. Do you blame the deranged for being deranged or do you blame the people for making a deranged person their president? 😉

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 With that president of yours, I am sorry to say, but he does not care about anyone but himself.
The escalation by Iran will not directly hurt the US or Americans, but other Arab countries. Trump doesn’t care about those. He cares about winning. About not losing.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@gbrew24 The question is: will Iran escalate after a while, by attacking its neighbours and their oil infrastructure? A partial solution for Iran to escalate would be to get the Houthis to close the Bab al-Mandeb by targeting a few tankers.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 Unfortunately, I find that question a bit silly, with the current occupant of the White House.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@MenchOsint Why doesn’t the Houthis close Bab el Mandeb to get leverage over Saudi Arabia?

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 @ralexdc Thank you very much for being so generous on sharing your thoughts on the US-Iran conflict and the sanctions in particular. Very much appreciated.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@gbrew24 How can you conclud we are at the end? The deal depends on Israel withdrawing from Libanon, which they say they won’t do.

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@Rory_Johnston Something isn’t right. Pakistans PM says signing happens on Friday. Trump says it is signed. Two hours before Iran say they will attack Israel. There are three texts being referred to.

Is Trump just saying there is a deal in order to put the blame on Iran tomorrow?

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 With oil price this «low», why haven’t Iran played the Bab al-Mandeb card yet? Their strategy seems to be to push oil prices higher and thus gas prices in the US. So it seems odd they haven’t got the Houthis to fire at a tanker. Thoughts?

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 A single rocket from the Houthi’s would close the Bab Al Mandeb and raise oil prices by quite a lot, increasing pressure on the US. It seems like a low hanging fruit for Iran to use? Why don’t they?

[Henning Gard Aarnes @HenningAarnes]

@BrettErickson28 Thank you for the post, very astute.