Incog

[Tommy @Shaughnessy119]

The most basic way AI could blow up imo. I'm not saying it does but this is the most obvious way I can see it happening

- Per seat subscriptions are massively subsidized. The flat fee was priced way below what heavy usage actually costs

- For real business use you have to move to the API anyway. Data protections, work integrations and compliance officer approval

- On the API you pay metered rates, and businesses are burning credits way faster than the per seat pricing ever led them to expect

- This is everywhere right now. Internally for us, Codex users, Uber torching its entire 2026 AI budget in 4 months, the Microsoft comments. Just go try an API

I shared more on this here: https://t.co/iZrqrCAIRW

- And I don't think most businesses have the money to keep paying increasing API rates without a real change to how they operate (caps needed)

- Because they have a cheap alternative. They can reach open source models through any aggregator (OpenRouter, Venice, Baseten, Together) and still get strong privacy. Venice private data centers, or E2EE/TEE serving GLM 5.1.

More on open source inference provider raises here: https://t.co/7kf56P44yQ

- And the discount is enormous. DeepSeek V4 codes within a hair of Opus on SWE bench at roughly 1/30th the price, and the cheapest open models run closer to 1/100th

- Chinese labs open source frontier grade models. The model is the single biggest cost an inference provider has, and they get it for free

- This idea dies if China goes closed source. That is actually bullish web2 AI labs, because if everyone is closed you pay up for the best intelligence. China goes closed source if they are tired of giving away an asset and they want the revenue and data flow to train new models

- Is this showing up in web2 AI lab revenue yet? No. Revenue is off the charts. Anthropic went from 9B to 47B run rate in five months

- So go forward, what happens?

- I think revenue slowly starts leaking to the open source inference providers (see Venice usage, OpenRouter's $113M raise, Baseten is raising at $11B or triple its valuation in three months, on revenue that went from $200M to $600M annualized in a single quarter)

- It doesnt move overnight, but it caps the labs ability to raise prices, and margins are already deeply negative. OpenAI is reportedly running near negative 122%

- With margins that bad there is no cash flow, so the labs are fully dependent on outside capital to buy GPUs, train models, and keep subsidizing usage (I.e. see Google tapping $80b equity sale, granted 30b for employee RSU taxes. Clearly they think Equity is overvalued or you wouldn't sell it)

- The break comes when that capital stops. Pricing is capped so margins cant improve, and the moment investors lose conviction on payback, the whole flow reverses

- Why would they lose conviction on payback? Back to the start - the inability to improve margins or get businesses to pay more

- This is also limiting, if we start making new drugs with AI or create entirely new businesses, you better believe people will pay up to the max for AI usage

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

https://t.co/7l7Jef99QZ

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

https://t.co/jB6DD34S1D

[Zcash Media 🛡️ @zcashmedia]

WATCH, LIKE, SHARE HERE TOO

-It's an open secret that Bitcoin is terrible for privacy.
-Satoshi Nakamoto knew this from the start, and even hinted at a potential solution.
-But Satoshi couldn't figure out how to make it work.
-So Zcash invented new math to solve the problem Satoshi left behind.
-Privacy is necessary for freedom and Zcash is more fit for purpose than Bitcoin

[Mindset Machine  @mindsetmachine]

This guy will cure your laziness watch it till the end 💯

[Wild content @Nocapmedia]

That was nearly a manslaughter charge

[Vince Langman @LangmanVince]

Hilarious 😂

[Ken McElroy @kenmcelroy]

🧵The 2025 real estate crash has already started—most people don’t see it yet.

Here's what’s happening and why this could be the biggest buying opportunity in decades. 👇

[drizzy @nando_7t]

@notlarke @nocontextmemes Saika Kawakita

[Wayne Vaughan @WayneVaughan]

MicroStrategy 101

@MicroStrategy lets people to invest in Bitcoin via familiar financial tools such as stocks and bonds. This makes investing in Bitcoin accessible to anyone unable to buy Bitcoin directly due to legal or practical reasons. 

What MicroStrategy Offers

 Stock
 MicroStrategy sells new $MSTR shares and buys Bitcoin.

 Convertible Bonds 
 MicroStrategy sells convertible bonds and buys Bitcoin.

Why It’s Working
By issuing stock or convertible bonds and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, MicroStrategy increases the Bitcoin per share for $MSTR shareholders. Shareholders usually dislike the creation of new shares because it dilutes their ownership, but in this case they support it because their Bitcoin per share grows.

Measuring Success
MicroStrategy has created a financial metric called Bitcoin Yield, that measures how the Bitcoin per share of $MSTR changes over time. Investors have adopted this metric as the primary way of measuring how successful MicroStrategy is at executing its strategy.

Market Opportunity
Demand for Bitcoin is growing as investors increasingly view it as a viable investment. MicroStrategy estimates there are $450 trillion in investable assets worldwide. Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.8 trillion, which is about 0.4% of the total. MicroStrategy believes this could grow to 7% in the next 20 years, a 17.5x increase. MicroStrategy is capitalizing on this opportunity by facilitating the transfer of capital from fiat systems to the Bitcoin network via their stock and convertible bond offerings.

Risks
All investments involve risk. Here are some of the noteworthy risks for MicroStrategy investors:

Regulatory
Regulators could deem MicroStrategy an investment company instead of an operating company, which could negatively impact the business. Changing laws around Bitcoin could adversely impact the company.

Premium Risk
MicroStrategy is currently able to sell stock and bonds at a 3.3x premium over the value of their underlying Bitcoin holdings. By using the proceeds from this sale to buy Bitcoin, they can deliver a positive Bitcoin Yield. If demand for MSTR stock and bonds decreases, the premium could decrease and impact the Bitcoin Yield.

Bitcoin Price Violatility
MicroStrategy’s performance depends on Bitcoin’s price, which can be very volatile. It’s unclear how demand for $MSTR will change when Bitcoin’s price is going down.

$MSTR Bros 
MicroStrategy has a cult-like online following. Self-aggrandizing social media influencers are flaunting sports-car purchases, posting their options portfolios, bragging about their gains, and encouraging people to take risky bets on $MSTR options. They use tortured analogies to describe MicroStrategy to unsophisticated investors. They regularly downplay the risks of $MSTR and attack those that caution prudence. Following their advice is going to get people wrecked. Regulators will take notice. The fallout could harm MicroStrategy’s reputation and potentially lead to legal consequences for these promoters. To his credit, MicroStrategy CEO Michael @Saylor doesn’t engage with these individuals. 

Conclusion
I support MicroStrategy’s efforts to advance Bitcoin adoption. Michael Saylor is a survivor, an innovator, and a powerful advocate for Bitcoin. I think anyone with significant Bitcoin holdings should consider owning some $MSTR to support his mission.

If you like this post, please share and follow me on X.

- @WayneVaughan.

[Jeremy Lee Miner @JeremyLeeMiner]

No one likes cold calling.

But cold calling can be extremely profitable, if you understand how to trigger curiosity.

Here’s how to ACTUALLY get people to talk with you (and close more sales in the process):

[Masculine Monk /self improvement @MasculineMonk14]

For The Next 6 Months...

Become Addicted To These 8 Habits and You'll Be Unrecognizable By The End Of 2025:

- Thread -

[Yasmine Khosrowshahi @yasminekho]

I distilled my 4 years of marketing lessons into minimalistic visuals.

1. Sell Benefits. Not features.

[Adam @AdamColb_]

By age 25, you should be smart enough to realize school and a job will never make you rich.

If you're still in your 20s and 30s, focus on this in the next 10 years and you'll be wealthier than 97% of people in their 40s...